Sorry for this relatively long preamble to these Projections. There are some changes from last year and I want somewhere to reference posters back to when the inevitable comments/questions/criticisms come about the tables. Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy the feedback…whatever it may be. However, there tends to be some redundancy in the types of posts encountered, especially as new viewers join in.
These are the 2011 PRESEASON Projections for End-of-Year (EOY) AIA Powerpoints Rankings which are used to seed the state tournaments. All future games are “projected” using current, preseason MaxPrep Rankings as the determining factor for future “wins” or “losses”.
I realize that the preseason MaxPrep rankings are far from perfect, but they are the best that I have for this purpose at this time. As I stated in a previous post (http://calpreps.com/cgi-bin/2007/ratings_fixes3.pl), there is still useful information, even in this early projection, for some people.
Some notes that might put these projections in perspective:
1) If future games fall 100% in line with the current MaxPrep rankings (exception: Homefield Advantage)…then the projection below is exactly how teams will finish in the AIA Powerpoints Rankings…but obviously that’s NOT going to happen, so here are some generalizations…
2) If a team finishes with the projected record listed below, their actual final powerpoint RATING will be “relatively close” to the number projected. Their final RANKING is much more complex, but will generally be within a few spots from that projected. Teams that finish better than their projected record will generally RANK higher than this projection…vice versa for teams that finish worse than their projected record.
3) Projections change weekly and are affected by (a) “upsets” - games in which a team with a (currently) lower MaxPrep rating beats a team with a higher MaxPrep rating (b) MaxPrep rating changes - which are updated every week as REAL weekly game results become available
4) Homefield Advantage - NEW this season: If MaxPrep rankings indicate a future game is a “toss-up” (defined for now by games whose teams’ MaxPrep ratings are within 1.5 points of one another), then the HOME TEAM will be projected as winner of that game regardless of whose MaxPrep Rating is higher or lower. I may modify or eliminate this “rule” during the season as I evaluate its impact/effectiveness.
Over the last 5-6 years I have used & evaluated a number of rating systems (MaxPreps, Massey, some that I developed myself, and a few others). I have ended up with MaxPreps for a number of reasons including:
- MaxPreps rankings/ratings most accurately reflect season results based on the AZ Prep football and basketball seasons that I have “checked” a number of rankings systems against.
- MaxPreps rates all teams (not just a top 10 or top 15), necessary for projections
- MaxPreps ratings apply to inter-divisional games, although admittedly not very accurately for interdivisional games when those divisions have few competitions against eachother (Ex: OLD 3A vs 4A/5A)
- MaxPreps ratings are updated in a timely fashion
- MaxPreps publishes volleyball, basketball, and baseball ratings too, useful for my purpose