It's going to be pretty tuff for Rock Point to upset Mogollon. Salome actually plays at Gila Bend not Ash Fork. Ash Fork plays at Gilbert Christian. Salome will get back in the playoff picture. How does Scottsdale Prep leapfrog Joy? Mogollon leapfrog Pima? Joe City leapfrog Valley Lutheran? Looks like Mogollon got a lot of credit for destroying Mesa Prep. To me that just proved that Mesa Prep was not as good as their record! And Joe City has a forfeit, how do they get ranked higher than Valley Lutheran?
Here is how I predict D6 will finish:
1 Joy Christian 8-0 (regains top spot) 2 SPA 8-0 3 Pima 8-0 (squeaks out Mogollon to regain 3rd spot) 4 Mogollon 7-1 5 Valley Lutheran 7-1 6 Joe City 7-1 7 Mesa Prep 7-1 8 Duncan 6-2 9 Gilbert Christian 6-2 10 Salome 6-2 11 Bagdad 5-3 12 St David 5-3
I think Joy with either Pima or Scottsdale Christian on the same side of the bracket would make it unbalanced - Pima has won each of the last two seeks and has dropped from #2 to #3 to #4. If the playoffs were to start today the bracket would be:
#12 Rock Point @ #5 Joe City #11 St David @ #6 Valley Lutheran #10 Gilbert Christian @ #7 Mesa Prep #9 Duncan @ #8 Bagdad
Potential quarterfinals: #5 Joe City @ #4 Pima #6 Valley Lutheran @ #3 Mogollon #7 Mesa Prep @ #2 Joy Christian #8 Bagdad @ #1 Scottsdale Prep
In this you have Scottsdale Prep, Pima, Joe City, Bagdad, Duncan, and Rock Point on one side of the bracket and Joy Christian, Mogollon, Valley Lutheran, Mesa Prep, Gilbert Christian, and St David on the other side. Fairly balanced I'd say. It's about to all get screwed Up!!
Here's what I think is likely to happen:
#3 Mogollon is slightly ahead of #4 Pima by .05 points, Pima is @ #11 St David and Mogollon is @ #12 Rock Point. Assuming they both win, I think Pima's ranking will be slightly higher than Mogollon's. So you could see Pima and Mogollon swap spots. There is a big gap between Joe City and Pima in the rankings so I don't think Joe City or Valley Lutheran will catch Pima or Mogollon, however Joy Christian is only .25 points ahead of Mogollon and .3 points ahead of Pima. Joy Christian is playing Veritas Prep who is ranked #34 out of 35 teams, Pima and Mogollon are playing #11 and #12 respectively. So Mogollon and Pima could easily pass up Joy Christian in the last week. I don't think either one of them can catch Scottsdale Prep since they are playing #18 Rancho Solano. So the top 4 could easily be:
1. Scottsdale Prep 2. Pima 3. Mogollon 4. Joy Christian
I obviously don't agree with this, my top 4 would be 1. Joy 2. Pima 3. Scottsdale Prep 4. Mogollon (even though I think Joe City may be better at this point).
I will do some more speculating and come up with my prediction for #1-12.
What you are not accounting for are the 7 teams pima has played to date! this next week, each one of the teams that pima played will either win or lose a game. This will put the final nail in the power points of their opponents as well as their strength of schedule. Essentially, if pima's previous 7 opponents do better than mogollon's previous 7, then perhaps they will leapfrog them. Mogollon's previous 7 opponents will most likely have more victories than chandler( my guess is Ray,Mayer,Joe-City, SPA, and Mesa prep win this week), while pima i think only 4( Valley Union, Duncan, Superior, and Ray will win). Who knows, pima hasn't played a school in the top 8, so that hurts them compared to Mogollon, who at benefits from playing Joe- City, Mesa Prep, and SPA. who will all increase their points this week. Sorry for the shoddy typing; the life of a student!
Good points Brigadier - so I looked at Pima, Mogollon, and Joy's opponents games:
Pima - It looks like 5 of Pima's opponents have a good shot of winning (Chandler Prep vs Superior are both Pima opponents, Valley Union, Duncan, Ray, San Simon)
Mogollon - I've got four down (Ray, Joe City, Scottsdale Prep, Mesa Prep) and maybe Mayer @ Fredonia, maybe Metro can help here.
Joy Christian - Anywhere from 1 to 4 of their opponents will win. I have Bagdad or Valley Lutheran (whoever wins) and then Pusch Ridge, Walden Grove, and Mayer as decent possibilities.
So, this argument doesn't clear much up because Pima may very well have more opponent victories this week than either Joy or Mogollon. Also, I'm sure the opponents of opponents factors in as well. So I think what I said above is still a strong possibility.
The real question is who will be the last two teams in?
I think Duncan and Gilbert Christian both win and are in. They probably slide up a spot, to #8 and #9, if Bagdad loses to Valley Lutheran. I don't Think Bagdad falls from 8 to 13 with a loss to Valley Lutheran, especially since St. David probably loses to Pima and Rock Point probably loses to Mogollon. That will make Bagdad the highest seeded 5 & 3 team at #10, unless Salome @ 6 & 2 jumps over them to the #10 spot.
Rock Point loses this week and is out, unless Salome loses to Gila Bend.
The Salome vs Gila Bend is shaping up to be the difference maker for the #11 and #12 seeds. If Salome wins they are in. #10 or #11, with Bagdad being the other. So that leaves the last spot for St. David, Superior, or Ray to compete for. I don't think a 5&3 Ray jumps over a 5&3 St. David. Superior @ 4&3 gets bit by the forfeit and is out.
So, St. David is the last team in and Superior or Ray are the 1st team out????
Here is a question some of you might have an answer to; When will the Power rankings be posted next week. More importantly, when will teams know who they play in the playoffs, or in some teams cases, if they are even going to be in the playoffs???
ftballfanatic wrote: Here is a question some of you might have an answer to; When will the Power rankings be posted next week. More importantly, when will teams know who they play in the playoffs, or in some teams cases, if they are even going to be in the playoffs???
The official bracket should be up on the AIA site by Saturday morning.
OK - Here is what I did, first I picked who I think will win the games played this week. You may disagree with the picks, but it is what I based my final rankings off of. Here are the picks:
Scotts Prep over Rancho
Joy over Veritas
Mogollon over Rock Point
Pima over St David
Joe City over Paradise
Bagdad over VL (just a hunch) *
Mesa Prep over Ajo
Duncan over Patagonia
Gilbert Christian over Ash Fork
Salome over Gila Bend
Superior over Chandler Prep *
Ray over Hayden * Mayer over Fredonia * Ft Thomas over Cibecue San Simon over Salt River * Valley Union over ASDB ACA over Tohono
Games with an asterisk are games i think could go either way.
Then I looked at the current top 18 in the rankings and determined the number of wins each teams opponents will get in the last week and took into account who their opponent is this week because all of their results will be factored in for the first time - I don't think you get credit for a team's success until you actually play them, this is different from the methods used last year. Remember this is what I think the AIA rankings will be after this Friday based on the above picks I made, not how I would rank them myself. Anyway, here is what I came up with:
The top four:
1. Scottsdale Prep (same) 2. Pima (+2) 3. Mogollon (same) 4. Joy Christian (-2)
Based on the picks Scottsdale Prep's opponents will only have 2 wins this week, while Joy has only 3. Mogollon and Pima have 5 opponent wins each and play much higher ranked opponents in the last week (Pima vs #11 St David and Mogollon vs. #12 Rock Point while Joy is against #34 Veritas). So I think Mogollon and Pima have a good chance to pass Joy in the rankings since the three teams are very close. Now I have Pima edging out Mogollon only because their opponent this week is ranked slightly higher and the two teams are practically tied in the rankings.
The rest of the playoff teams:
5. Joe City (same) 6. Bagdad (+2) 7. Mesa Prep (same) 8. Valley Lutheran (-2) 9. Duncan (same) 10. Gilbert Christian (same) 11. Salome (+2) 12. St David (-1)
13. Rock Point 14. Superior 15. Ray 16. Mayer
The hard one in here is Bagdad vs. Valley Lutheran, I picked Bagdad but I think VL could win just as easily - maybe a toss up. If Valley Lutheran were to win, they will pass up Joe City and be the #5 seed, so no disrespect to VL. The trouble is figuring how far VL would fall with a loss - I put them at #8, but they could even go to #9, I'm not sure just my best guess based on the data. The other hard part is picking who that #12 team is, I think St David will just edge out Rock Point and Superior, although Superior might get a bigger bump from a win as opposed to both St David and Rock Point losing to highly ranked teams.
So based on my prognostications, which are based on my picks, which may not be accurate picks, which is based on the mystery secret formula, here would be the first round games:
#12 St David @ #5 Joe City #11 Salome @ #6 Bagdad #10 Gilbert Christian @ #7 Mesa Prep #9 Duncan @ #8 Valley Lutheran (would be fun to watch)
Possible quarterfinal games:
#5 Joe City @ #4 Joy Christian (interesting) #6 Bagdad @ #3 Mogollon (could be a great game) #7 Mesa Prep or #10 Gilbert Christian @ #2 Pima #8 Valley Lutheran or #9 Duncan @ #1 Scottsdale Prep
Remember this is just all for fun, I'm not suggesting I know for certain - I just had an hour to kill. Let the ranting begin!
This year's power point system is more difficult to figure out than last year, but I think I finally am starting to make sense of it thanks to these goofy forfeits by Cibeque, which has a ripple effect across the division and seems to help Duncan more than anyone. I would attempt to explain why, but it takes too long. The strangest thing about this for me is how hard it is to predict week to week, because strength ratings vary widely and can't be used to assess and predict rankings. In other words, there is important data that is missing that would tell us why teams with equal standings aren't ranked by their strengths. Why is Scotts Prep above Joy when their strength rating is smaller? Why is Duncan below Bagdad when they have equal records and Duncan's strength rating is almost twice that of Bagdad's? I think I know why, but again, I don't have time to go through the argument and data right now. I will say this, it is not simply MARGIN of Victory because Joy's margin is 6 points better than SPA's.
Anyway, I don't think Joy will drop lower than 3, regardless of what happens. Scotts Prep will likely stay at 1, but really as long as you're in the top four you have a bye. If Pima wins they stay in and probably leap Mogollon, but not Joy. Mogollon will probably stay in the top four, but not higher than four unless Pima loses. VL beats Bagdad and will probably still not break into the four. If they lose to Bagdad they will probably fall a few spots and Joe City will be 5. GC, Mesa Prep, Joe City, VL, Bagdad, and Duncan will all stay in the six spots between 10 and 5, unless SD pulls an upset and jumps into those middle rankings. The drama will be at the bottom of the bracket. Salome beats Gila Bend and should be in at 11 or maybe 12 (no guarantee they will leap St. David who may have one more loss than Salome). Superior has a rough battle against Chandler Prep. They lose, they're out, no question. They win, they MIGHT leap St. David if the Tigers lose to Pima. If Salome also loses, then Superior is in if they win. I believe Ray's only chance is if they beat Hayden and if Salome, Superior, and Rock Point all lose. Rock Point has no chance against Mogollon, but Superior/Chandler Prep game should be good and Gila Bend/Salome is an old rivalry game, so anything can happen. I don't think Salome backs in with a loss to Gila Bend unless Superior and Ray also lose. Clear as mud.
Anyway, I don't think Joy will drop lower than 3, regardless of what happens. Scotts Prep will likely stay at 1, but really as long as you're in the top four you have a bye. If Pima wins they stay in and probably leap Mogollon, but not Joy. -------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------
What logic do you have for the above? If you think Pima will pass Mogollon, then they should have a good chance to pass Joy. The difference in the rankings are Pima is behind Mogollon by .05 which is pretty much a tie. I'm not completely sure if Pima will pass Mogollon because I think that both teams will have 5 previous opponents win games this weekend and they play teams who are very closely ranked themselves Pima vs. #11 St David and Mogollon vs. #12 Rock Point. So I give Pima the slight edge.
Joy is only .25 points ahead of Mogollon and .3 points ahead of Pima. They will have 3 or at most 4 previous opponents win this weekend, less than both Pima or Mogollon and they play one of the lowest ranked teams in div. 6. Maybe I'm wrong but both those factors seem to work against Joy and the three teams are currently ranked very close.
FballFan, I couldn't agree more. Here is what I figure: According to the AIA, "Defeating a team with a losing record that happens to compete in an extremely strong league or schedule can be more beneficial than defeating a team with a winning record playing an extremely weak schedule."
The strength total of all the teams that Bagdad has beat is greater that the total strength of the teams that Duncan has beat. They both lost to Joe City, with Duncan's other loss coming from Pima, and Bagdad's coming from Joy Christian. Joy Christian's strength points are higher than Pima's, which gives Bagdad the upper hand in both the win and loss columns. Even though Duncan's strength of schedule is higher, the strength of their oppenent's schedules is still lower than Bagdad's.
I am assuming the same would be true with Joy and SPA. Again, the AIA states that " teams with a weak strength of schedule can still be highly rated if they have key victories over highly rated opponents or by winning consistently over the course of the season. Ultimately, you will see a few teams with weaker strength of schedule that earn their way amongst the top ranked teams, although they may never actually play on the field."
Trubador - I'm with you and I even did a little figuring. I think the average of your opponents SOS would be somewhat like the opponents-opponents victory points category the AIA used last year. I found the average opponents SOS for the top 4 currently ranked teams. I also included Duncan and Bagdad because you guys were talking about them.
1. Scottsdale Prep +1.9334 2. Joy Christian -0.0395 3. Mogollon +0.5862 4. Pima +0.3333
8. Bagdad +0.7434 9. Duncan +0.0105
Scottsdale Prep's average is extremely high compared to the other five teams, I think this is definitely why they are ranked over Joy and Pima who both have higher individual SOS's than SPA. Same for Bagdad - the opponents average SOS is much higher than Duncan's and it must carry a decent amount of weight. I'm glad you mentioned it because it helps understand how the rankings ended up the way they did. I'm sure there is more to it than just this, in fact I think there are many layers besides just SOS and opponents SOS.
The above argument makes it even more likely (I think) that Mogollon and Pima will pass Joy Christian because they both have a higher opponents average SOS. Although Mogollon's is higher than Pima's which makes me want to reconsider that Pima will pass Mogollon, this category might keep them ahead of Pima. Thanks for the input guys. Any other things that might be affecting the rankings?