I updated these because of some of the "upsets"...not something I plan on doing often but I was interested on the effects...especially since this is the first time I have posted basketball projections in number of years.
This will be the last time I post this header for these projections...the link in the tables will take you back to them. Additions are in RED.
LOTS OF FORMAT CHANGES THIS WEEK...for some, it might be information overload. For some, it will prove very informational and even useful.
These are 2011 Basketball Projections for End-of-Year (EOY) AIA Powerpoints Rankings which are used to seed the state tournaments. All future games are “projected” using the most currently available MaxPrep Rankings as the factor for determining future “wins” or “losses”.
If you are interested in seeing what win/loss records qualify teams for the state tournament, these tables help figure that out. The current AIA powerpoints (listed on aia365) do NOT give a clue what teams will make the playoffs (especially bubble teams) until very very late in the season. If the team(s) you follow is(are) not in the running for a playoff spot, you will probably NOT be interested in these.
Just to be clear, I am not a powerpoints supporter or detractor (I personally believe the new scheduling has introduced some problems that have not been properly addressed with a formula adjustment). Powerpoints get ALL the contenders in the playoffs...and the rest of the slots are filled with long shots, the same as every other playoff method. Like them or NOT, powerpoints are important because they ARE used to seed the state tournaments.
Don’t expect these projections to predict exact final AIA powerpoint placement…they don’t, especially at this point in the season. But they are very useful for many people…here are some notes that might put these projections in perspective:
1) If future games fall 100% in line with the current MaxPrep rankings then the projection below are very, very close to how teams will finish in the AIA Powerpoints Ranking (note the AIA has introduced in-exactness, another word for errors, into powerpoint calculations by “counting” out-of-state and aia associate games, see * ).
2) SINCE MAXPREPS rating do not correctly predict 100% of the future games (they are usually about 80% accurate), here is the main reason that these projections are very useful to SOME coaches/fans.
If a team finishes with the projected record (win/loss) listed below, their actual final powerpoint RATING will be “very close” to the number projected. A team’s final powerpoint RANKING is more complex, but will generally be within a couple spots from that projected. Teams that finish better than their projected record will almost always RANK higher than this projection…vice versa for teams that finish worse than their projected record. This is very critical information teams projected on the playoff “bubble”. Bubble teams need to win more games than projected below in order to guarantee a playoff spot. If they finish worse than those projected records, than they will NOT make the playoffs.
To estimate a powerpoint RATING that has a different win/loss projection than below, use these number for basketball: add 2.5 points for each additional win, subtract 2.5 points for each additional loss. This is a simplification but is fairly accurate for one/two additional wins or losses over those projected. Finally, look at where that adjusted RATING would place your team within the projected RANKING to see if those additional wins/losses would impact your playoff positioning.
3) Projections change because they are affected by (a) “upsets” - games in which a team with a (currently) lower MaxPrep rating beats a team with a higher MaxPrep rating (b) MaxPrep rating changes - which are updated as REAL weekly game results become available.
Coaches and ADs do not always update game results quickly. There are usually some previously completed games that are unknown at the time I publish these projections. For those games, the team with the higher maxprep ranking is assumed to have won that game. This is obviously not always the correct assumption, but I don’t have the time to track down all the game results manually…sorry.
* These calculations have some “in-exactness” (don’t think that is a word but I will use it anyway) due to the fact that the AIA “counts” games against out-of-state opponent and AIA associate teams (teams that are not full AIA members). The in-exactness comes from the fact that the AIA/ADs/coaches do not correctly implement these “special” games into the ratings and therefore there are ALWAYS errors with them. In fact, there are problems in the AIA formula AND in how the results of these “special’ games are reported by the ADs and coaches. In the past, errors have impacted playoff seeding…they will continue to do so until the AIA decides to go back to NOT “counting” them or the AIA get more proactive in correcting the errors.
Despite the errors, the AIA powerpoints are OFFICIAL and are used to seed the playoffs. I do duplicate some of their errors in my calculations but it is hard to do it with 100% inaccuracy (haha), thus the in-exactness. In the past I have contacted the AIA about these errors but their mode of operation is to fix the easy ones (that I have pointed out) and politely ask me to go away, so I don’t try to get them fixed anymore.
Over the last 5-6 years I have used & evaluated a number of rating systems (MaxPreps, Massey, some that I developed myself, and a few others). I have ended up with MaxPreps for a number of reasons including:
- MaxPreps rankings/ratings most accurately reflect season results based on the AZ Prep football and basketball seasons that I have “checked” a number of rankings systems against.
- MaxPreps rates all teams (not just a top 10 or top 15), which is necessary for projections
- MaxPreps ratings apply to inter-divisional games, although admittedly not always accurately for interdivisional games when those divisions have few competitions against eachother
- MaxPreps ratings are updated in a timely fashion
- MaxPreps publishes volleyball, basketball, and baseball ratings too, useful for my purpose