I think whoever had a pretty decent Freshman class last year. Unless, it's a small school or the Varsity just plain stinks (even then it's rare), only a small handful of kids go straight from Freshman to Varsity.
I think the big teams that have a lot of talent will send talent down to get more playing time and then move them back up come playoff time. Because of that, they could be very good one week and very average the next. That's why it's kind of neat to watch the Freshman and see what raw talent is out there. In JV, if the kid is legit, he isn't staying there long if at all.