Past to Present: 5A Edition

We take a look back at our preseason picks and see how accurate we were.

At the beginning of the year I broke down each region; I predicted who would win and picked players of the year, etc. I wanted to see how accurate I was, so I went back, looked it up and compared my picks to how they finished. Let's see how I did.

5A1- I did well in 5A1. I picked 5 of the 6 region champs and was very close on the 6th. I picked two from top to bottom.

Central- In order, I predicted the region to fall:

1. Desert Vista
2. Basha
3. Corona
4. Mt. Pointe

I also stated that "It will go down to week 10 to decide the winner." I was right in that aspect. Had Basha beaten Corona, it would have been a three-way tie for the region championship. Corona ended up winning the region and is currently on an 8 game win streak. The region fell in this order:

1. Corona (8-2)
2. Desert Vista (6-4)
3. Basha (6-4)
4. Mt. Pointe (4-6)

Fiesta- I predicted this region to go:

1. Hamilton
2. Chandler
3. Highland
4. Mesquite
5. Gilbert

I picked the top two spots but really missed the boat on Gilbert. I expected them to be down with all of the players they lost. This region was very competitive, with 4 teams making the playoffs. Here is how it ended up playing out:

1. Hamilton (10-0)
2. Chandler (7-3)
3. Gilbert (6-4)
4. Mesquite (4-6)
5. Highland (4-6)

Desert Valley- My prediction:

1. Brophy
2. Mt. Ridge
3. St. Mary's
4. Desert Mountain

I picked the top two spots and St. Mary's actually beat Desert Mountain but DM had a better record. Not too bad. Here is how it fell:

1. Brophy (8-2)
2. Mt. Ridge (7-3)
3. Desert Mountain (4-6)
4. St. Mary's (3-7)

Metro- Here were my picks:

1. North Canyon
2. Chavez
3. Alhambra
4. Trevor Browne
5. Maryvale

I picked the winner but the real surprise to me was Maryvale's season. After going winless last year a lot of people counted out the Panthers. Pat Rowe did a nice job. Here is how the region ended up:

1. North Canyon (8-2)
2. Maryvale (4-6)
3. Chavez (3-7)
4. Trevor (2-8)
5. Alhambra (1-9)

Southern- I picked this one top to bottom. Booyaa!

1. Salpointe (6-4)
2. Buena (3-7)
3. Casa Grande (2-8)
4. Tucson (0-10)

East Valley- I picked this one top to bottom. That is two in a row. Vegas here I come, cha-ching!

1. Red Mountain (8-2)
2. Mt. View (8-3)
3. Dobson (7-4)
4. Mesa (6-4)
5. Westwood (6-5)

5A2- Didn't do as good on this conference, picking only 3 of 6 conference winners but things got a little messed up with Sunnyside and Boulder Creek having to forfeit games. But I was close on the ones I was off, Sunnyside actually had the best record in the region and Goldwater was not far from winning it.

Pima- Here is what I picked:

1. Marcos de Niza
2. Pinnacle
3. Horizon
4. Desert Ridge
5. Skyline

I picked the top two but missed a little on Horizon and Skyline. Horizon lost a lot of talent but I did not expect them to fall like they did. Skyline had a great season and made the playoffs for the first time. Here is how it actually played out, it was a competitive region with four teams playoff bound.

1. Marcos (9-1)
2. Pinnacle (8-2)
3. Skyline (7-3)
4. Desert Ridge (6-4)
5. Horizon (2-8)

Desert West- Again, I picked the top two and it was the team that I picked at the bottom that had a nice season. This time it was La Joya led by RB Jeremiah Cornist. Here were my picks:

1. Centennial
2. Westview
3. Ironwood
4. Tolleson
5. Sunrise Mountain
6. La Joya

No one in 5A2 has beaten Centennial in three years and Westview's only region loss was to Centennial. I was most surprised with La Joya. They have put together a nice season.

Metro- The Metro regions are always pretty unpredictable as rosters turn over greatly from year to year. So I admittedly said in my preview, "This region is up for grabs." My prediction was:

1. North
2. Camelback
3. Central
4. South Mountain
5. Carl Hayden

Man did I miss on South Mountain! And I thought Central would slip a bit with Belcher gone but not like this. Here is how it played it out.

1. South (9-1 including forfeit)
2. Camelback (4-6)
3. North (3-6)
4. Central (1-9)
5. Carl Hayden (0-10)

Northwest- This was one of the regions I also missed on but I wasn't off by much. I picked it to go:

1. Goldwater
2. Deer Valley
3. Willow Canyon
4. Boulder Creek
5. Kingman
6. Valley Vista

I was just a little off. Goldwater actually beat Willow Canyon and lost to Deer Valley by one, so it was within reach. Deer Valley started off the year with some tough losses but went a good run to win it. Willow Canyon had a nice season. Boulder Creek ended up forfeiting a bunch of games and I am not sure what their actual record is. Here is how it ended up:

1. Deer Valley (7-3)
2. Willow Canyon (7-3)
3. Goldwater (6-4)
4. Boulder Creek (4-6)
5. Kingman (2-8)
6. Valley Vista (0-10)

Gila Valley- I was very close to calling this one from top to bottom. I predicted:

1. Cibola
2. Yuma
3. Kofa
4. San Luis.

Kofa beat Yuma 13-7 in week 10 to flip flop those two. Here is how it went:

1. Cibola (6-4)
2. Kofa (3-7)
3. Yuma (2-8)
4. San Luis (1-9)

Southern- Talk about screwed up region. Sunnyside beat Mt. View but had it forfeited, then they lost the next week when their QB didn't play. Here is how I picked it originally:

1. Sunnyside
2. Ironwood Ridge
3. Marana Mt. View
4. Rincon

Technically based on record I picked it right but Ironwood Ridge actually won the region. Here is how they finished:

1. Ironwood Ridge (7-3)
2. Marana Mt. View (7-3)
3. Sunnyside (8-2)
4. Rincon (4-6)

I will go back and compare 4A tomorrow.

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