A look at the Big 16 playoff pictures.
The point system for the Big 16 is currently very tight and looks to be decided in the final weeks. The revised rules include 2 mark offs for every team and an unlimited number of games against fellow Big 16 teams.
W L Raw Points Marked off Total Points
Stratford 8 0 33 25
Colleton County 6 2 31 24.5
Irmo 8 0 32.5 24.5
Summerville 6 2 31 24.5
Wando 6 2 31 24
Fort Dorchester 4 4 29.5 23
Sumter 7 1 29 23
West Ashley 2 6 27.5 21.5
Stratford who will have 37.0 points with only one more win remains in the cat's bird seat for the Big 16 by winning just 1 more game.
Colleton County can not catch Stratford but can only tie and Stratford has the advantage in head to head. Wando also can not catch Stratford regardless of the outcome of the season ending game.
Summerville can only tie Stratford at 37.0 but again lost head to head.
Irmo MUST beat Sumter this week to avoid a harsh fate. It is conceivable that a 10-1 Irmo team could finish as low as 6th. Irmo can max out at 36.5 and that could be good enough for any spot from 2nd to 5th.
Fort Dorchester needs to win and look to finish anywhere from 5th to 7th with 35.5 point max.
Sumter is hurt by losing records for Manning and Lakewood as well as the loss to Spring Valley. Sumter could win out, beat Irmo, finish 10-1 and have a 6 or 7 seed. No Big 16 games and playing losing 3A programs are crippling.
West Ashley is going to be the 8th seed.
W L Raw Points Marked off Total Points
Dorman 7 1 31.5 24.5
Northwestern 7 1 31 24.5
Rock Hill 8 0 30 24
Spartanburg 6 2 30.5 24
Lexington 4 4 29 23
Ridge View 4 4 28.5 22.5
Gaffney 2 6 27 21
Hillcrest 1 7 25.5 19.5
Not much changed in the past few weeks as the Big 16 upper state playoff race revolves around the Dorman / Spartanburg and Rock Hill and Northwestern Match ups.
Dorman and Northwestern hold the half point advantage due to beating a winning Big 16 program. (Lexington appears to be assured of a winning season).
Taking a look at this four teams here are the minimum and maximum points for each team.
Dorman 35.0 min / 37.0 max with a win over Spartanburg
Rock Hill 33.5 min / 36.5 max winning out
Northwestern 34.0 min / 37.0 max winning out
Spartanburg 33.0 min / 36.5 max winning out
The minimums are only achieved by losing the remaining 3 games which is impossible since they play one another. It is almost a certainty that these 4 will be the top 4 seeds.
The tie breakers are head to head first meaning a tie between Dorman / Spartanburg or Rock Hill / Northwestern would be decided head to head.
In other tie situations, that would result in total points in all 11 games being used which would leave Rock Hill 4th due to the 2A and 3A games, Spartanburg 3rd with the 2 losses and Dorman and Northwestern tied with the same number of Big 16 and 4A games. Dorman would beat Northwestern and Rock Hill in a head to head tie since all of Dorman's games were against 4A opponents and Northwestern has a win over a losing 3A team (Fairfield Central) and Rock Hill has wins over a losing Chester and 2A Central Pageland.
Lexington can do no better than 35.5 point with winning their last 3 games but that will get them no better than a 5 seed. I played every possible scenario out and found no way that Lexington could move about a 5 seed.
Ridge View and Gaffney could move up with wins over their next 2 games but it would be a shocker if RV beat NW or RH and if Gaffney beat Spartanburg or Dorman.
Hillcrest is 8th.
If the playoffs started today
# 1 Stratford
# 4 Rock Hill
# 2 Northwestern
# 3 Irmo
# 1 Dorman
# 4 Summerville
# 2 Colleton County
# 3 Spartanburg
Wow…………….. That would be an interesting an interesting bracket setup and make for some great first round match ups. How bout a Stratford / Rock Hill and Northwestern / Irmo game for the quarters. This is going to be a great playoff.