7 on 7 Early Statistical Analysis

DFW Writer Matt Diggs uses his psychological statistical analysis to break down the pools to determine who has it easy and who has it tough.

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7 on 7 Statistical Analysis

Now that you have the colorful spreadsheet up and you can look along with me, let's explain the logic behind the analysis.

Little Matt and I broke down the 64 teams from 1 to 64. These are our opinions and may not reflect the opinions of the 7 on 7 board (although I challenge one 7 on 7 board member to say they saw more 7 on 7 than Little Matt and I) - we do not differentiate how different #1 is from #2 - There could be very little difference between 28 and 42, but for this analysis, we will consider them equally distant based on each spot.

The idea seeding system (not one generated by folks in Tennessee) would have teams 1, 32, 33 and 64 in one pool, 2, 31, 34 and 63 in the second pool and so on. The average pool weight would be about 32.25 for everyone.

To the board's credit, a lot of the pools are very good. Pool K and Pool O knockout the competition with exactly a 32.25 rating. There are a couple outliers (extreme exceptions) within the rankings. The most obvious one is pool J. The four teams would have been projected, if using our system, not only to qualify but make it to the second round of the championship bracket. This seeding would be what you expect in a 16 team bracket - not a 64 team bracket. The two teams that advance out of that bracket will have earned it, and those in the consolation bracket may be likely to play each other in the consolation championship. No other consolation teams would be projected with that high a pool rating.

What goes up, must come down, a physicist once said. To balance out the extremely high 9.5 average rating are pool P (40.5), pool F (46), pool B (39.5) and pool I (41.75). Pool F wins the easiest pool designation where the highest rated team is ranked #30 and the second highest seed projected to make the championship round is Lakeview Centennial. Of course, Cedar Park (ranked #46) wins the highest seed projected to make it to the championship bracket.

Other interesting notes...

Mojo and Southlake could clash in the first round of the championship bracket if Mojo gets 2nd and SLC gets 1st.

Defending state champion Colleyville Heritage looks at a first round match-up with either Plano East or Katy - a game that should be pretty fun to watch as well.

Pool O may be talent central - as Lufkin and South Garland are loaded with blue chippers, Channelview is projected to have one of their best teams in years, and SA MacArthur, part of that loaded 26-5A, will have players to watch as well.


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