OVERALL:The top number overall in Class 4A is Grapevine at 2102, all the opt ups in Class 5A push this number higher assuming South Garland and Garland Lakeview Centennial follow the Homer Johnson logic and play 5A. The bottom number is Clint Mountain View at 1034. Opt ups in 4A look to be Fort Worth Dunbar, Houston Wheatley, Houston Jones, Houston Worthing and Houston Kashmere. Overall 229 schools in 4A this time around. So let's take a look at the numbers!
El Paso Andress
El Paso Austin
El Paso Bowie
El Paso Burges
El Paso Chapin
El Paso Irvin
El Paso Jefferson
THE WHY: This was an easy district as we kept the current 1-4A together in this inner city El Paso alignment. EPISD is opening a new high school in two years that will pull from Class 5A Montwood mainly so that could send Montwood down in 2010.
Clint Mountain View
El Paso Del Valle
El Paso Parkland
El Paso Riverside
El Paso Ysleta
THE WHY: Suburban El Paso stays virtually the same as we only project San Elizario to drop down to 3A, San Eli does not have travel concerns anymore as they will likley play in 1-3A next year with the likes of Clint, Monahans, Fabens, Pecos, Monahans, Ft. Stockton and possibly Tornillo if they opt up. I'm still trying to figure out why Clint has 3 high schools.
Amarillo Palo Duro
THE WHY: This is where the fun begins, this is a combination of the current 3-4A and 4-4A. 4-4A only had 5 teams in it and with Lubbock Estacado dropping to 3A that seals the fate of West Texas in 4A with just on district despite the drop of Abilene Cooper. The big loser in this loop is Big Spring, many had them projecting to drop (including us) but they are still too high to drop. They are on an island out on I-20 and there just isn't anywhere to put them without major travel.
Wichita Falls Rider
THE WHY: With the drop of Abilene Cooper to 4A and not enough teams to fill out a second West Texas 4A loop much like their 5A brothers Abilene High Cooper heads east. It's a natural fit to pair Cooper with the 2 Wichita Falls schools who are also out on an island. We paired Azle and Springtown in the loop due to proximity to Wichita Falls as they are both in the NW portion of the Fort Worth area. Boswell and Saginaw High are the next logical fits to fill the 8 team loop as they are also located right on 287 to make it an easy jaunt to Wichita Falls although the Abilene road trip won't be fun.
THE WHY: The shocking drop of Grapevine pairs them with the 3 Denton schools in a grouping. Birdville makes a good fit with Grapevine as BISD and GCISD have been paired in 5A for years. Lake Dallas with their proximity to Denton and Grapevine is a good fit to fill this six team loop. I can't see Denton and Wichita Falls being paired for six years in a row.
THE WHY: This is nearly a reuniting of 6-4A from two years ago, just add in Granbury in place of Mineral Wells. Granbury drops from 5A not because of a lack of growth but due to the fact that the 5A number has jumped so much. Granbury could make a playoff push in a friendly district minus Stephenville and Aledo.
FW Arlington Heights
FW Eastern Hills
FW South Hills
FW Trimble Tech
FW Western Hills
THE WHY: It appears FWISD won't get their second district unless Carter-Riverside pulls a stunner and decides to opt up which we anticipate they won't do as they have not exercised this option in the past. Dunbar also will likley have 3A numbers but we have confirmed from their HC they will likely exercise the option and play up. With 10 teams in a district there will likely be zone play once again.
White Settlement Brewer
THE WHY: This is nearly a look at the old District 15-4A from two years ago so there is a precedent set for this pairing. With 2 MISD schools being 4A they make a natural fit with Arlington Seguin, Alvarado's proximity to Mansfield makes them a logical fit as they stray away from the other Johnson County 4A schools. Everman and Crowley being less than 10 miles apart make the best fit to round out this loop.
THE WHY: This is a bit of an odd pairing but as you move into Region 2 you start to work with more multi school ISDs which cause pairings to get skewed a bit especially with creating an extra DFW district. Frisco ISD now with 4 high schools gets paired with the two drop downs from 5A in the two Carrollton schools. Little Elm and The Colony where also moving parts but they are both further north and make a better pairing in another district.
THE WHY: This is another mix and match loop as the two McKinney schools left in 4A make a natural fit with Sherman and Denison who have really gotten the short end of the stick on travel the past two seasons. Little Elm and The Colony are a couple of floaters but the pairing makes sense as Little Elm is north of Frisco and The Colony being the only 4A Lewisville school has to travel a bit but they should be more competitive in this new alignment.
THE WHY: Trying to pick how DISD will realign is not easy but we do know they like to keep rivalries together, so with that Samuell and Spruce stay together. Hillcrest and new school Conrad should have a natural rivalry and then Wilson, Lincoln, North Dallas and Jefferson round the loop out.
Dallas South Oak Cliff
THE WHY: The second DISD district should be known as the Oak Cliff District, with Carter, Kimball, SOC, Adamson and A Maceo Smith all residing here. Seagoville, Pinkston and Bryan Adams finish out this loop.
THE WHY: This is the old 10-4A minus Rockwall Heath and Greenville who will be moving east to the I-30 loop with the departure of the two Paris 4A schools to Class 3A.
THE WHY: Another district that is kept together minus Arlington Seguin who just wasn't a good fit in this loop. It's back to a more traditional alignment as Midlothian thankfully for them avoids the burden of heading to 5A.
THE WHY: The two Rockwall schools paired on the I-30 corridor is easily the most shocking development in our would be alignment. Rockwall ISD would likely not go for it, but with assumption of the extra district in DFW needed to account for the loss of a West Texas district this alignment makes the most sense. With RISD having two schools and being on the eastern fringe of DFW makes this loop logical as if you take RISD out and place them in 13-4A then you'd be grasping at straws to pull a team or two from the new 16-4A. The distance for Rockwall and Heath isn't too bad except for the one trip to Texarkana. This old alignment from 11-4A loses 3 teams to 3A in both Paris schools and Lindale.
Longview Pine Tree
THE WHY: Longview replaces Henderson in a very simple move as Henderson drops down from 3A. Everything else is status quo and some old 12-5A rivalries are rekindled with Longview joining Marshall and Nacogdoches in this alignment.