- Storms will likely delay the game in Cleveland
- Scattered storms could play a factor in Colorado this afternoon, and Baltimore in the night game
- Washington Nationals visiting RHP Kyle Kendrick
- Detroit Tigers visiting LHP Bruce Chen
- Baltimore Orioles hosting RHP Chase Whitley
- Milwaukee Brewers hosting RHP Carlos Martinez
- Houston Astros hosting RHP Clay Buchholz
Longshot stack:Tampa Rays hosting RHP R.A. Dickey
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With David Price expected to start despite battling the flu this weekend, Cueto is perhaps the safest SP available on Sunday. He hasn’t been invulnerable lately, but has given the Reds 6 straight Quality Starts and 18 of his 20 outings this can be classified as such. Cueto is a virtual lock for at least 15 DK points, especially at home, where he’s sporting a nifty 0.76 WHIP, 1.72 ERA, and 9.94 K/9 ratio. Over the past 3 and a half seasons, Cueto has throttled the Cincinnati’s divisional foes, as he’s 6-2 with a 1.73 ERA in 11 starts against the Pirates. He’s averaging 29.2 DK points against the Bucs this year, and will look to approach that mark this afternoon.
Teheran torpedoed plenty of lineups when he produced -6.3 DK points in a horrendous 3.1 innings of work against the Mets on Tuesday, but before you swear him off entirely, take a look at his numbers following a loss. Tuesday was the 6th time Teheran was on the losing side of a decision this year, and in 5 starts following the other losses, he’s thrown at least 7 innings, with a combined 1.15 ERA and 4.75 K:BB ratio. He held the Cubs to 1 ER over 8 IP in one of those contests back on May 9, and while their offense is improving due to an infusion of young talent, the Cubs lineup is not exactly star-studded. The Marlins are the only N.L. team with more strikeouts than the Cubbies, and Teheran can mow batters down when he’s right.
Two Duds (Value Plays):
After facing the dangerous Tigers, with horrific results, Ryu is in a great position to bounce back as he hosts the light-hitting Padres this afternoon. San Diego has shown signs of life after an historically awful June, but still sits at the bottom of the league in nearly every offensive category. It’s worth noting that the Padres collective .200 average against LHP is over 30 points worse than any other team, and Ryu has contributed to their misery by holding the Pads to 1 ER over 13 IP in two starts this season. Current Padres are 11 for 52 (.212) in their careers against Ryu, with a pathetic .038 ISO. He should be able to get back on track with a plus matchup leading into the break.
DeGrom will close out the first half for the Mets, and he comes into today’s start riding the momentum of his 11-strikeout, 7-inning shutout of the Braves in his last start. He was solid in his prior 3 outings, including a 7-inning shutout against the Marlins in Miami on June 21. The Marlins are the 3rd highest scoring team in the MLB, but their offense bottoms out away from home, as they’ve scored the 2nd fewest runs on the road this year. DeGrom has been comfortable at Citi Field, holding opponents to a .242 average while posting a 1.95 ERA through 5 home starts. The young RHP has a very good fastball (averages 93.4 MPH), and decent secondary pitches that should help him produce against the team that leads the MLB in strikeouts.
Big Sal leads all A.L. catchers with a .338 wOBA, and is the clear selection to start the exhibition game after a stellar first half, yet he remains a relative value on a daily basis. A slugger with strong reverse-platoon splits, Perez is an ideal candidate to crush the increasingly vulnerable Verlander, and is in fact 14 for 30 (.467) with a HR and 10 RBI in his career against the Tigers right-hander. Assuming he doesn’t get the day off in preparation for his role in the ASG, Perez should be in the middle of the order on Sunday, and prepared to do some damage against the former Ace.
Steven Vogt (OAK) finally earned some respect from DraftKings as his price has increased to $3300. He’s batting higher and higher in the A’s dangerous lineup and is a very useful value play that can occupy the catcher slot.
For the record, this is one of the few slates where Miguel Cabrera’s 6K price tag is justified, as he has some fantastic splits against weak Royals starter Bruce Chen, but if you need a reasonably priced option at 1B, look no further than Big City. Adams trails only Troy Tulowitzki in the race for the N.L. batting title, and his .371 average against RHP is far and away the best mark in that league. He’ll face right-hander in Wily Peralta that is allowing LHB to post a .376 wOBA this season, and is coming off a shelling at the hands of the Phillies. Peralta has allowed 17 ER, and 4 HR in his last 3 starts, and his 16.3% HR/FB ratio is 3rd worst in the Majors. He has a 1.46 HR/9 ratio at home this season, and could give up a big fly to the Cardinals’ big lefty.
Billy Butler is hitting .295 over the last 28 days and could be part of a Royals stack against the struggling Justin Verlander. He’s a GPP only play at this point for $3700.
Matt Carpenter (STL) @ MIL: $4200 – Facing RHP Wily Peralta
If you were considering Matt Adams at 1B, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to pair him with on-base machine, Matt Carpenter. The Cardinals leadoff man is having a down year considering he lead the league with 126 runs and set a Major League record with 55 doubles, but he’s been doing his part for the struggling St. Louis offense by getting on base. He reached base 3 times during yesterday’s blowout win, and is currently sporting a .405 OBP on the road this season. Carpenter has solid platoon splits, and is 5 for 9 with a HR, and 3 BB in his career against Peralta. He’s a safe play, with upside as a potential part of a mini-stack this afternoon.
Marco Scutaro ($2800) returned to the Giants lineup yesterday and was one of several hitters baffled by LHP Wade Miley, but if he’s batting 2nd again when San Fran hosts weak LHP Vidal Nuno, he’s worth a look considering he hit .309 off lefties last season.
Todd Frazier (CIN) vs. PIT: $4400 – Facing LHP Francisco Liriano
Frazier continued his surprising first half run with a HR, 3 RBI, and a SB to produce 28 DK points yesterday. He’s been relatively quiet this month, considering he produced double-digit DK points in over half of his 28 June contests. Frazier is hitting .318 with 9 HR since June 1, and his upside is further boosted by the fact that he leads all 3B-eligible players with 14 SB on the year. He has a .222 ISO against LHP, and has tagged Liriano for 3 XBH in 14 at bats (5 for 14 overall). We don’t know what to expect from the Pirates’ oft-injured starter after month off with an oblique injury, and Frazier is more than capable of capitalizing on any mistakes he might make.
Chris Johnson (ATL) went nuts yesterday with 2 HR off RHP Edwin Jackson, but he’s hitting .415 against LHP this season, and is just as dangerous with LHP Travis Wood throwing today.
Cody Asche (PHI) has surprisingly produced DK points in 9 straight appearances and is 1 for 3 with a HR off RHP Tanner Roark. He’s a low-tier punt play at $3400.
Ian Desmond (WAS) @ PHI: $4100 – Facing RHP Kyle Kendrick
Desmond is one of several Nationals batters with superb splits against Kyle Kendrick, who is 5-9 with a 4.86 ERA in his career against the Nats. Desmond is 15 for 37 (.405) with 3 XBH and 2 HR against the RHP, and with winds blowing out of Citizens Bank Park at 15 MPH this afternoon, we could see plenty of power displayed. Kendrick is coming off a horrific performance in Milwaukee where he was tagged for 11 H, 7 ER, and gave up 3 HR in 5.2 IP, so a Nationals stack has plenty of potential today. Desmond has reverse-platoon splits, and is averaging 10.1 DK PPG over his last 10 appearances. He’s a great GPP play and worth a look in all formats.
Ryan Flaherty (BAL) seems a bit over priced at $3500, but RHP Chase Whitley is allowing LHB to hit .320 and could be stacked against today.
I’m not bailing on the Enrique Hernandez (HOU) bandwagon just because he failed to produce DK points for the first time in his short career yesterday. He’s still a great value play at $2300 in a plus matchup against Buchholz.
Carlos Gomez (MIL) vs. STL: $4600 – Facing RHP Carlos Martinez
Since moving back to the leadoff spot on Tuesday, Gomez is averaging 10.8 DK PPG and is 3 for 3 on SB attempts. He has strong reverse-platoon splits this season, so facing a young right-hander shouldn’t jeopardize his value in any way. Carlos Martinez struggled with the long ball in his last start, and will be without the guidance and defensive prowess of Yadier Molina today. If he allows Gomez to reach, the Brewers’ all-star should have the green light to steal.
George Springer (HOU) vs. BOS: $4500 – Facing RHP Clay Buchholz
Springer is on pace to strike out an alarming amount of times in his rookie season, but he’s also hit 19 HR in 74 games for the Astros. He’ll face one of the most vulnerable pitchers in the Majors this season, as Houston welcomes the headcase known as Clay Buchholz this afternoon. The Red Sox RHP has pitched well (comparatively) in 3 starts since returning from a fake DL stint, but has been done in by the 5 HR he’s allowed. His 1.59 HR/9 ratio would be the 3rd worst mark in the Majors if he still qualified. Springer has strong reverse-platoon power splits, as 15 of his HR have come off RHP, and he’s in a good position to succeed against Buchholz today.
Bryce Harper (WAS) @ PHI: $4300 – Facing RHP Kyle Kendrick
For some reason, Harper has only been producing on the road this season, and he seems to like Philadelphia’s Citizen Bank Park, where he’s hitting .317 with 9 XBH in just 63 career at bats. Harper will have the platoon advantage with Kendrick on the mound today, and the Phillies RHP is allowing LHB to sport a .403 wOBA this season. Harper sees him well, as he’s 9 for 23 with 5 XBH, 3 BB, and 3 SB in as many tries in his career against Kendrick. He’ll be well rested after getting Saturday off, and should be prepared to do some damage.
All Brock Holt (BOS) does is produce consistently, and at $3900, he remains a fantastic mid-tier option for 50/50 and H2H lineups.
I’m not sure if Kevin Kiermaier (TB) will draw another start at the leadoff spot, but he was huge in the Rays win yesterday and warrants consideration at $3600 as the Rays look to tee of on R.A. Dickey at Tropicana Field.
Robbie Grossman (HOU) is one of several cheap Astros that could serve as high-upside value plays against Buchholz. He’s a true boom or bust option for $3200.
I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7
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