Scouting The MLB - July 12

Most of Saturday's MLB action takes place this afternoon, and our Daily Fantasy Sports writer breaks it all down

Weather Report

  • Scattered storms in Chicago and Colorado could affect those games

Stackable Menu

  1. Colorado Rockies hosting RHP Kevin Correia
  2. Cleveland Indians hosting RHP Scott Carroll
  3. Baltimore Orioles hosting RHP Shane Greene
  4. Boston Red Sox visiting LHP Brett Oberholtzer
  5. Chicago White Sox visiting RHP Zach McAllister

Longshot stack:Chicago Cubs hosting LHP Mike Minor

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Two Studs:

Adam Wainwright (STL) @ MIL: $10,800 – Facing RHP Jimmy Nelson

After striking out just 6 batters in his last two starts, Wainwright is now available at a very reasonable price. But he twirled 7+ shutout innings in both of those outings- which is something he’s now accomplished an MLB-high 9 times this season. The strikeouts may come as he faces an aggressive Brewers lineup today, yet with Waino, you’re paying for consistency. The Cardinals ace has been outstanding away from home all season, with a 1.32 ERA, .193 BAA, and 25.2 DK points in 11 road starts. St. Louis is in a bad way with Yadier Molina on the DL, and their de facto stopper should do everything in his power to stop what could become a lengthy losing streak.

Jake Odorizzi (TB) vs. TOR: $7800 – Facing RHP Drew Hutchison

He’s a relative value today, but when he pitches at home this season- Odorizzi has been a stud. The young RHP is holding opposing batters to a .196 average, while posting an 11.09 K/9 ratio in 10 starts at Tropicana Field. The Blue Jays offense is hurting without Edwin Encarnacion, as Toronto is scoring just 3.27 runs per game over their last 11 contests. With Nolan Reimold suffering an injury last night, the Jays lineup could be even more watered down, meaning Odorizzi’s performance may come down to keeping the red-hot Jose Reyes off base. He’s been very tough on lefties, as LHB are posting just a .222 wOBA and 30% K rate against Odorizzi at home, so dealing with Reyes seems quite possible.

Two Duds (Value Plays):

Wade Miley (ARI) @ SF: $7800 – Facing RHP Ryan Vogelsong

Even though Miley has looked like a completely different pitcher lately, he’s a high-risk option that will remain in the value section. Miley has a career K/9 of 6.9, but he’s been striking out 11 batters per 9 innings over the last two weeks. His 0.87 FIP is 2nd best in the Majors during that stretch, and has a 40:11 GB/FB ratio over his last 4 starts. The translation: He's eliciting weak contact when he doesn't fan opposing batters. Miley has been much better on the road this season, as Arizona's Chase Field is a somewhat difficult place to pitch, and is allowing opposing batters to hit just .214 away from his home stadium. The Giants are in a tailspin as the all-star break approaches, and most of their hitters have poor splits against this particular LHP.

Jimmy Nelson (MIL) vs. STL: $7200 – Facing RHP Adam Wainwright

The 38th best prospect according to Baseball America will get another shot in the Majors, and is worth a speculative add in most seasonal leagues in case the Brewers decide to keep him in the rotation. He's been dominant in AAA this year, with a 1.46 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 9.2 K/9 ratio through 16 starts. Nelson also fared well in his only MLB start, holding the Marlins scoreless over 5.2 IP to earn a Win back on May 25. Only San Diego's offense has been worse than St. Louis on the road this season, as the Cardinals have managed to score just 3.3 runs per game away from Busch Stadium. They're the 3rd lowest scoring team in the Majors this season, and just lost their leader, as well as a huge cog in the middle of their lineup, as Yadier Molina will miss at least the next two months. This is a nice opportunity for Nelson to find his footing.



Carlos Santana (CLE) vs. CWS: $4300 – Facing RHP Scott Carroll

The Indians offense is cooking right now, and faces a SP that has allowed great success to opposing stacks all season. I’m not buying Carroll’s 1-hit performance against a pressing Red Sox team on Monday- the RHP overall body of work is pretty awful. Even with that stellar outing, Carroll has a 4.62 ERA, and .322 BAA in 8 starts this season, and has been shelled by lefties in any appearance. LHB are sporting a .372 wOBA against the White Sox starter, and Santana has been demonstrating patience, as well as power, with 3 BB, and 2 XBH over his last 3 games. He’s driven in 4 runs and produced 38 DK points during that span, and remains a very high-upside option as the usual cleanup hitter for a dangerous offensive club.

Potential Value:

The Cubs could be a surprising offense to stack today, and Wellington Castillo ($3200) has a ton of power.

Christian Vazquez (BOS) was called up for his defense, but was an offensive juggernaut with 3 H and 23 DK points last night. If he’s in the lineup for a day game after a night game, give him a look at the minimum price.

First Base:

Freddie Freeman (ATL) @ CHC: $4800 – Facing RHP Edwin Jackson

There are a ton of great options at 1B today, but Freeman may be the safest bet for 50/50 and H2H lineups. The Braves most consistent hitter is hot, having reached base in 27 of his last 28 starts, and faces a right-hander that tends to implode from time to time. Jackson has posted just one Quality Start in his last 7 outings, and that came against a Red Sox team that couldn’t hit anyone at the time. The Cubs starter has had a lot of trouble retiring Freeman in his career, as Friendly Freddie is 7 for 14 with 2 HR against him. He’s allowing LHB to sport a .395 wOBA this season and will have a hard time keeping the Braves slugger off base today.

Potential Value:

Nick Swisher is heating up, and could be part of an Indians stack against Scott Carroll. He’s homered in 3 of his last 5 appearances and has a lot of upside at $3800.

Second Base:

Jose Altuve (HOU) vs. BOS: $4900 – Facing RHP Jake Peavy

Altuve is worth paying up for this afternoon as he faces a right-hander with reverse-platoon splits, and an arsenal of mediocre pitches that he should find very hittable. Peavy tends to settle down in the middle innings this season, but he’s allowing leadoff hitters to bat .400 with an OPS of 1.113 in 55 at bats this season. He has a 6.00 ERA in 8 road starts, and will face the Astros for the first time today. Altuve’s power sneaks up on some SP, but his ability as a base runner is the main reason he’s worth paying nearly 5K for. The speedster is 30 for 32 on SB attempts with a RHP on the mound this season, and we’ve seen him log 6 multi-SB games in the last month.

Potential Value:

Arismendy Alcantara (CHC) is a relative bargain at $3400 if he’s leading off today. The switch-hitting stud prospect has produced 41 DK points in his last 2 appearances.

Third Base:

David Wright (NYM) vs. MIA: $4300 – Facing RHP Tom Koehler

The price is still right for Wright, and he remains a fantastic play in a similar matchup this afternoon. The Mets slugger made it an early night for Marlins starter Henderson Alvarez, and finished 4 for 4 with a HR and 27 DK points on Friday. Now he’ll face Koehler, who has a 5.51 ERA, and is allowing RHB to post a .355 wOBA on the road this season. Wright is 6 for 17 (.353) off the Marlins right-hander in his career, but this recommendation is more about the batter, who is 9 for his last 18 and seems to be returning to his all-star form.

Potential Value:

Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE) hasn’t been producing huge DK point totals, but he’s a solid mid-tier option at $3600 that should be batting 5th or 6th in the Indians lineup.


Brian Dozier (TOR) @ TB: $4600 – Facing LHP Tyler Matzek

While Tulo is getting hot again, a SS-eligible batter from the opposite dugout in today’s contest at Coors could provide as much production for significantly cheaper. Dozier has responded well in a leadoff role, as he’s 5 for 14, and is averaging 10.6 DK PPG over his last 3 starts. He hasn’t that huge outing that we’ve come to expect from the slugging middle infielder, but it could be coming as he faces a mediocre LHP in the second appearance of his career at Coors Field. Dozier has a .245 ISO, and .378 wOBA against lefties, and RHB are hitting just over .300 against Matzek this year, so he’s a solid option in all formats.

Potential Values:

Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE) stayed hot last night and, at $4000, is a crucial part of an Indians stack if he’s batting 2nd against Scott Carroll.

Kike Hernandez (HOU) STILL costs $2300. He’s never failed to produce DK points and is facing a relatively weak SP in Jake Peavy.


Adam Jones (BAL) vs. NYY: $5000 – Facing RHP Shane Greene

Jones is no longer one of the hottest hitters in the MLB, but he’s still gone 4 for 12 with 20 DK points produced in his last 3 games. I like his odds to return to form this afternoon in what projects to be a high-scoring affair at Camden Yards. Shane Greene will make his second Major League start, and is unfortunate enough to face the first place Orioles on the road. Jones is averaging 9.2 DK PPG at home, and loves facing pitchers in pinstripes as he’s 12 for 31 (.393) with 2 HR in 7 games against the Yankees this season. Along with his bash brother, Nelson Cruz, he’s one of the few outfielders worth spending on today.

Mark Trumbo (ARI) @ SF: $4200 – Facing RHP Ryan Vogelsong

Don’t forget about Trumbo. The D’Backs slugger returned from a lengthy DL stint and singled in last night’s contest, so maybe he knocked some of the rust off before today’s matchup. He lacks consistency, but his power is limitless, and he’s sporting a .208 ISO against RHP over the past three seasons. You need to be as strong hit it out of AT&T Park, where Vogelsong has been solid this year, but I wouldn’t count Trumbo- the man who hit 6 HR in 67 April at bats- out of GPP consideration this afternoon.

Brock Holt (BOS) @ HOU: $3900 – Facing LHP Brett Oberholtzer

Holt isn't getting as much attention from the DFS community lately, but he's still been a great mid-tier play with double-digit DK points in 5 of his last 9 appearances. He has strong reverse-platoon splits this season, with a .372 wOBA and absurd .467 BABIP against LHP, so Astros southpaw Brett Oberholtzer shouldn't give him much trouble. Most importantly, the Red Sox bats have come alive behind him as they’ve exercised the demons of A.J. Pierzynski, and seem to be rallying around a youth movement that Holt essentially started. The lefty-handed leadoff man played well in his return to Houston (he grew up a few hours away in Texas) and should be doubly motivated to play well in the second game of the series.

Potential Values:

Lucas Duda (NYM) homered again last night and remains a high-upside option at 1B or OF for $3900.

Mookie Betts ($3200) is another part of the Red Sox youth movement that has been seeing playing time against LHP, so he’s worth a look with Oberholtzer on the mound.

Chris Dickerson (CLE) is still a reasonable $3100. He’s batting .471 in 6 games with the Indians and faces a very weak RHP today.

I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7

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