Please see the earlier article for all the disclaimers about from where the data came and how it should be used. Suffice it to say that the Forecaster has been the leading publication of its kind for the last quarter of a century for good reason.
The $24.95 is well spent, and for that price you get a downloadable version and a free update in March. Buy the Forecaster here.
2011 Projections vs. 2010 Actuals* - St. Louis Cardinals Pitching
* Major league equivalent Triple-A and Double-A stats are included, so 2010 numbers for these players are not true actuals.
Innings. The issue here is health concerns. The biggest contributor to the lower total is a question about whether Chris Carpenter can go a third consecutive season without major injury. A checkered injury history goes with Jake Westbrook and some skepticism is shown for Kyle Lohse returning to 2008 form.
Wins. In an ominous view, Westbrook, who pitched for St. Louis in just part of last season, is the only member of the rotation projected to increase his win total over 2010. Even Adam Wainwright is projected to digress.
ERA. This is the most concerning set of numbers to me. Only two of the 11 pitchers profiled are forecast to improve their ERA compared to last season. One of them is Carpenter, with the other Lohse. Jaime Garcia, Kyle McClellan and Motte are expected to tack a run per nine innings onto their 2010 ERAs, with Mitchell Boggs, Franklin and Wainwright picking up a half run per nine. Warning! Danger!
WHIP. Same story as ERA but perhaps worse, with most every pitcher slated to allow more runners this coming season. Other than a very minor improvement for Westbrook, the only improvers in this category are the worst pitchers in 2010, Lohse and Brian Tallet.
Strikeouts. No surprises here as past rates tend to continue. Motte may see a bump if his innings worked rise as projected.
Unlike the hitting projections, which offered some cause for optimism, there is little excitement generated about the 2011 Cardinals pitchers based on these numbers.
For graciously sharing their data as they do each year at this time, thank you again to Ron Shandler and BaseballHQ.com.
Part one: "BaseballHQ Predicts 2011 Cardinals Hitters"
Brian Walton can be reached via email at firstname.lastname@example.org. Also catch his Cardinals commentary daily at The Cardinal Nation blog. Selected TCN content appears at FOXSportsMidwest.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.
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