BaseballHQ Predicts 2011 Cardinals Pitchers

Using BaseballHQ's projections to consider year-to-year performances of the St. Louis Cardinals pitchers for 2011 does not provide comfort. Conclusion of a two-part series.

In Part one of this two-part annual series, we looked at the projections for the hitters expected to play the front-line roles on the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals using data from Ron Shandler and BaseballHQ's Baseball Forecaster.

Please see the earlier article for all the disclaimers about from where the data came and how it should be used. Suffice it to say that the Forecaster has been the leading publication of its kind for the last quarter of a century for good reason.

The $24.95 is well spent, and for that price you get a downloadable version and a free update in March. Buy the Forecaster here.

2011 Projections vs. 2010 Actuals* - St. Louis Cardinals Pitching

IP IP Wins Wins Sv Sv
2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011
Boggs 67 73 2 4 0 0
Carpenter 235 189 16 13 0 0
Franklin 65 65 6 5 27 23
Garcia 163 174 13 12 0 0
Lohse 92 108 4 6 0 0
McClellan 75 73 1 2 2 0
Miller 36 44 0 1 0 0
Motte 52 73 4 5 2 18
Tallet 77 44 2 1 0 0
Wainwright 230 218 20 17 0 0
Westbrook 203 174 10 11 0 0
totals 1228 1162 76 73 31 41
Departed
Hawksworth 90 87 4 5 0 0
Penny  56 123 3 8 0 0
Reyes 38 36 2 1 1 0

ERA ERA WHIP WHIP K K
2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011
Boggs 3.61 4.22 1.29 1.43 52 51
Carpenter 3.22 3.10 1.18 1.18 179 142
Franklin 3.46 4.00 1.03 1.24 42 43
Garcia 2.70 3.57 1.32 1.37 132 138
Lohse 6.55 4.75 1.78 1.48 54 67
McClellan 2.27 3.35 1.08 1.27 60 57
Miller 4.00 4.34 1.28 1.40 22 31
Motte 2.24 3.23 1.13 1.30 54 74
Tallet 6.40 4.97 1.58 1.52 53 31
Wainwright 2.42 2.94 1.05 1.16 213 189
Westbrook 4.22 4.30 1.34 1.32 128 105
Departed
Hawksworth 4.98 4.66 1.64 1.53 61 58
Penny  3.23 4.41 1.29 1.41 35 77
Reyes 3.55 3.97 1.45 1.43 25 26

* Major league equivalent Triple-A and Double-A stats are included, so 2010 numbers for these players are not true actuals.

Innings. The issue here is health concerns. The biggest contributor to the lower total is a question about whether Chris Carpenter can go a third consecutive season without major injury. A checkered injury history goes with Jake Westbrook and some skepticism is shown for Kyle Lohse returning to 2008 form.

Wins. In an ominous view, Westbrook, who pitched for St. Louis in just part of last season, is the only member of the rotation projected to increase his win total over 2010. Even Adam Wainwright is projected to digress.

Saves. The Forecaster foreshadows a change at closer during the final season of Ryan Franklin's current contract. Jason Motte is projected at 18 saves, with upside to 30 noted.

ERA. This is the most concerning set of numbers to me. Only two of the 11 pitchers profiled are forecast to improve their ERA compared to last season. One of them is Carpenter, with the other Lohse. Jaime Garcia, Kyle McClellan and Motte are expected to tack a run per nine innings onto their 2010 ERAs, with Mitchell Boggs, Franklin and Wainwright picking up a half run per nine. Warning! Danger!

WHIP. Same story as ERA but perhaps worse, with most every pitcher slated to allow more runners this coming season. Other than a very minor improvement for Westbrook, the only improvers in this category are the worst pitchers in 2010, Lohse and Brian Tallet.

Strikeouts. No surprises here as past rates tend to continue. Motte may see a bump if his innings worked rise as projected.

In closing

Unlike the hitting projections, which offered some cause for optimism, there is little excitement generated about the 2011 Cardinals pitchers based on these numbers.

For graciously sharing their data as they do each year at this time, thank you again to Ron Shandler and BaseballHQ.com.

Part one: "BaseballHQ Predicts 2011 Cardinals Hitters"



Brian Walton can be reached via email at brian@thecardinalnationblog.com. Also catch his Cardinals commentary daily at The Cardinal Nation blog. Selected TCN content appears at FOXSportsMidwest.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

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