Based on a comparison of players' statistics over the past two seasons, all players are ranked as one of three Types – A, B or no compensation. One major intent is to ensure a former team is compensated when losing a key player via free agency.
Elias runs statistical calculations for all players each league, free agent or not, based on two-year results in areas like plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, home runs and runs batted in for position players and starts, innings, ERA, strikeouts and saves for pitchers.
Each player is scored relative to their position, or more accurately in some cases, groupings of positions. There are five groupings: (1) catcher; (2) first base and outfield; (3) second base, third base and shortstop; (4) starting pitcher and (5) relief pitcher.
Statistically, the top 20 percent of players are called Type A and the next 20 percent are labeled Type B. The remainder generate no compensation when signing with a new club.
If a Type A player offered arbitration by his current club signs with a new one instead, the old club receives two compensatory picks. The first-round pick is taken from the signing club or (if in first half of draft) their second-round pick is given to the current club. In addition, the current club is awarded a new pick, a sandwich pick at end of first round of the next June's draft.
In the case of a Type B free agent, only the sandwich pick is awarded to the current team. The new team is not penalized.
The nine Cardinals free agents and their Elias Rankings are as follows:
Remember that to secure any compensation for a Type A or B, the Cardinals must first offer arbitration to the free agent and then the player must turn down the opportunity. There is one exception, however.
Compensation is also awarded if the player signs elsewhere prior to the arbitration deadline. For example, if Joel Pineiro agrees to terms with another club before December 1, the Cardinals receive compensation just the same as if they had offered him arbitration.
For the 15 days following the completion of the World Series, the Cardinals retain exclusive negotiating rights with their free agents, or this year through November 20. That is the same deadline for Wellemeyer and Pineiro to file.
There is inherent risk built into the system, as the club may not want to risk getting tied down just to pick up an extra draft pick. As a result, expect fewer players to be offered rather than more.
What's next? In part two of this article, for TheCardinalNation.com subscribers, I will offer my predictions as to which players will be offered arbitration and why.
Brian Walton can be reached via email at email@example.com. Also catch his Cardinals commentary daily at The Cardinal Nation blog.
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