BaseballHQ Predicts 2010 Cardinals Pitchers

Using BaseballHQ's projections to consider year-to-year performances of the St. Louis Cardinals pitchers for 2010 does not provide comfort. Part two of a two-part series.

In part one of this two-part annual series, we looked at the projections for the hitters expected to play the front-line roles on the 2010 St. Louis Cardinals using data from Ron Shandler and BaseballHQ's Baseball Forecaster.

Please see the earlier article for all the disclaimers about where the data came from and how it should be used. Suffice it to say that the Forecaster has been the leading publication of its kind for the last quarter of a century for good reason.

The $24.95 is well spent, and for that price you get a downloadable version and a free update in March. Buy the Forecaster here.

2010 Projections vs. 2009 Actuals* - St. Louis Cardinals Pitching

IP IP YTY Wins Wins YTY Sv Sv YTY
2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010
Boggs * 134 73 -61 8 5 -3 0 0 0
Carpenter 193 183 -10 17 13 -4 0 0 0
Franklin 61 73 12 4 5 1 38 23 -15
Hawksworth* 113 44 -69 9 3 -6 0 0 0
Lohse 118 174 56 6 11 5 0 0 0
McClellan 67 73 6 4 4 0 3 3 0
Miller 44 51 7 4 3 -1 0 0 0
Motte 57 58 1 4 4 0 0 0 0
Penny 173 116 -57 11 8 -3 0 0 0
Reyes 41 44 3 0 2 2 1 0 -1
Wainwright 233 218 -15 19 17 -2 0 0 0
1100 1034 -66 78 70 -8 42 26 -16
Departed
Pineiro 214 183 -31 15 11 -4 0 0 0
Smoltz 97 116 19 4 7 3 0 0 0
Thompson 80 44 -36 2 2 0 0 0 0
Wellemeyer 122 102 -20 7 5 -2 0 0 0

ERA ERA YTY WHIP WHIP YTY K K YTY
2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010
Boggs * 5.09 4.47 -0.62 1.82 1.50 -0.32 91 48 -43
Carpenter 2.24 3.15 0.91 1.01 1.14 0.13 144 141 -3
Franklin 1.92 3.85 1.93 1.20 1.46 0.26 44 48 4
Hawksworth* 3.55 4.76 1.21 1.24 1.49 0.25 63 25 -38
Lohse 4.74 4.50 -0.24 1.37 1.37 0.00 77 109 32
McClellan 3.37 4.10 0.73 1.35 1.37 0.02 51 57 6
Miller 2.06 3.72 1.66 0.96 1.26 0.30 46 52 6
Motte 4.76 3.88 -0.88 1.41 1.33 -0.08 54 62 8
Penny 4.88 4.50 -0.38 1.40 1.42 0.02 109 72 -37
Reyes 3.29 3.52 0.23 1.37 1.38 0.01 33 35 2
Wainwright 2.63 3.23 0.60 1.21 1.23 0.02 212 187 -25
5.15 0.61 -88
Departed
Pineiro 3.49 4.03 0.54 1.14 1.31 0.17 105 87 -18
Smoltz 6.13 4.21 -1.92 1.39 1.27 -0.12 83 94 11
Thompson 4.84 4.76 -0.08 1.35 1.45 0.10 34 21 -13
Wellemeyer 5.89 4.97 -0.92 1.77 1.56 -0.21 79 67 -12

* Major league equivalent Triple-A and Double-A stats are included, so 2009 numbers for these players are not true actuals.

Innings. While Kyle Lohse is expected to bounce back quite a bit, HQ has concerns about his command as well as Brad Penny's reliability, specifically his shoulder. Possible burnout is offered as the reason for backing off a bit on Adam Wainwright.

Wins. Other than Lohse creeping up to 11 wins, everyone else is flat or down slightly, including co-aces Chris Carpenter and Wainwright.

Saves. Ryan Franklin is viewed to have a third fewer saves along with worse peripherals and lose his job at some point during the season. No clear alternative to close the saves gap was identified though Jason Motte was suggested as having the skills.

ERA. Not a good story. Only Lohse and Motte are viewed to be trending upward. Carpenter is projected to add almost a run to his 2009 ERA while Wainwright may increase by .60 runs per nine innings. Trever Miller (high fly ball tendency) and Frankin are also down for major negative changes.

WHIP. Other than Motte, every returning pitcher is projected to allow more baserunners per inning in 2010 compared to 2009.

Strikeouts. Not much to say, perhaps appropriate since this is not a major focus of Dave Duncan's staff.

In closing

Just as the hitting projections told us, there is little room for optimism for improvement from the 2010 Cardinals based on these numbers.

For graciously sharing their data as they do each year at this time, thank you again to Ron Shandler and BaseballHQ.com.

Part one: "BaseballHQ Predicts 2010 Cardinals Hitters"



Brian Walton can be reached via email at brian@thecardinalnationblog.com. Also catch his Cardinals commentary daily at The Cardinal Nation blog. Follow Brian on Twitter.

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