Please see the earlier article for all the disclaimers about where the data came from and how it should be used. Suffice it to say that the Forecaster has been the leading publication of its kind for the last quarter of a century for good reason.
The $24.95 is well spent, and for that price you get a downloadable version and a free update in March. Buy the Forecaster here.
2010 Projections vs. 2009 Actuals* - St. Louis Cardinals Pitching
* Major league equivalent Triple-A and Double-A stats are included, so 2009 numbers for these players are not true actuals.
Innings. While Kyle Lohse is expected to bounce back quite a bit, HQ has concerns about his command as well as Brad Penny's reliability, specifically his shoulder. Possible burnout is offered as the reason for backing off a bit on Adam Wainwright.
Wins. Other than Lohse creeping up to 11 wins, everyone else is flat or down slightly, including co-aces Chris Carpenter and Wainwright.
Saves. Ryan Franklin is viewed to have a third fewer saves along with worse peripherals and lose his job at some point during the season. No clear alternative to close the saves gap was identified though Jason Motte was suggested as having the skills.
ERA. Not a good story. Only Lohse and Motte are viewed to be trending upward. Carpenter is projected to add almost a run to his 2009 ERA while Wainwright may increase by .60 runs per nine innings. Trever Miller (high fly ball tendency) and Frankin are also down for major negative changes.
WHIP. Other than Motte, every returning pitcher is projected to allow more baserunners per inning in 2010 compared to 2009.
Strikeouts. Not much to say, perhaps appropriate since this is not a major focus of Dave Duncan's staff.
Just as the hitting projections told us, there is little room for optimism for improvement from the 2010 Cardinals based on these numbers.
For graciously sharing their data as they do each year at this time, thank you again to Ron Shandler and BaseballHQ.com.
Part one: "BaseballHQ Predicts 2010 Cardinals Hitters"
Brian Walton can be reached via email at firstname.lastname@example.org. Also catch his Cardinals commentary daily at The Cardinal Nation blog. Follow Brian on Twitter.
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