eric Avakian

Alex Wood: Productivity Report

Alex Wood: Productivity Report

Biographical Details

  • Robert Alexander Wood
  • Born: 1/12/1991 in Charlotte, NC
  • Draft: 2012, Atlanta Braves, 2nd rd. (85th overall)
  • College: Georgia
  • Debut: May 30, 2013

Profile: Wood fell several levels from his lofty 2014 perch, as his 25% strikeout rate cratered (17%) and his 80% strand rate normalized (73%). The losses all came from the fastball. The velocity on the fastball dropped another tick it could ill-afford to lose, falling to 89-90 mph on average. Batters went from not really chasing it at all in 2014 (20%, good for 59th out 62 SPs w/1500 fastballs thrown) to eww-get-it-away-from-me-now (16%, 60th of 61) in 2015. The result was almost a 100-point jump in OPS off of the pitch. The changeup wasn't great in '14, but contributed a bit to that big strikeout rate. It was worthless as a strikeout offering in '15, though, with the 5% whiff rate ranking dead-last among the 45 pitchers who threw at least 400 of them. The curveball was still good, but not elite, and the troubles with the other pitches limited the impact of the hammer. Ground balls might end up being his key to success because it's hard to envision the fastball reaching those 2014 heights again, which brings the ceiling down substantially. If he can churn out a 55%+ kind of groundball rate, it takes the pressure off of him in terms of regaining the lost strikeouts.

The Quick Opinion: As the book on Wood thickened, he became a lot more hittable, resulting in more than a run being added to that shiny 2014 ERA. If you still believe, then he's a late-round gamble, but his profile says that 2015 is more real than 2014.

Pitches

  • Threw fastballs 88-90mph (61% of all pitches), changeup 81-84 (17%), changeup 81-84 (17%).
  • CH was most effective. FB was least effective. 2961 total pitches (60% in the strike zone). Threw 688 of 1119 first pitches for strikes (61%).

Insights

  • CH was his most effective pitch - batters hit just 0.318 when put into play compared to 0.33 off his least effective pitch - FB.
  • CH was his most effective pitch - batters hit just 0.318 when put into play compared to 0.33 off his least effective pitch - FB.
  • Rarely attempted pickoffs.
  • Threw fastballs low to RHH.
  • FB had a big tailing action.
  • FB had sinking action.

...........................................................................................MLBadvancedmedia/ariball/fangraphsdata


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