Projections for the 2007 Season

With snow pushed into in head-high piles and temperatures hovering around my bank balance after the Christmas bills came thundering in, we felt it a good time to stay inside where it is warm and check out what the experts think could happen in 2007. Join us.

Bill James, in his "Bill James Handbook" and Dan Zymborski, on his website "Baseball Think Factory," each compiled projections for all 30 major league clubs, using formulas so complicated they pale the details of how to split the atom.

Therefore we will not bother you with the technical side of how the numbers were crunched, because it would take too much space and because we don't fully understand them anyway.

But however they were determined, they are interesting to look over, compare and learn what a pair of statistical experts think of the Dodger position players.

Briefly, you can see that James Loney lines up quite favorably with Nomar Garciaparra, with Olmedo Saenz figures listed under first baseman although he is really the righthanded bat off the bench.

Neither expert thinks Jeff Kent will have trouble putting up solid numbers at second base despite his 39 years and they each feel that Marlon Betemit will quickly give way to Andy LaRoche at third base.

Rafael Furcal will have another sparkling summer at shortstop, as will catcher Russell Martin who should shoulder the load behind the plate. Mike Lieberthal's backup numbers are all so comforting.

Both James and Zymborski feel that Matt Kemp is a star in the making and will put up big numbers. Luis Gonzalez is predicted to cover the absence of J.D. Drew and Juan Pierre should again be a hit machine and a terror on the bases. Andre Ethier is also expected to enjoy a strong sophomore season.

But, of course, it is all in fun -- although James' has had remarkable success in past seasons, hitting many predictions right on the screws.

However, he adds the caveat about his forecasts: "It is what it is: we are not soothsayers or mystics with crystal balls; we're just a bunch of hairy accountants with speadsheets. Sometimes we're right, sometimes we're wrong and sometimes we're sorry we brought up the subject."
The predictions of each sabermetrician -- enjoy!:


Nomar Garciaparra  1b
       ave  obp  slg ab run hit 2b 3b hr bi sb
Zym   .288 .354 .469 399 64 115 26  2 14 68 2
James .304 .364 .504 427 70 130 30  2 17 72 3

James Loney 1b
       ave  obp  slg ab run hit 2b 3b hr bi sb
Zym   .297 .351 .434 512 68 152 35  4  9 58 5
James .305 .360 .460 498 72 142 36  4 11 70 9

Olmedo Saenz 1b/3b
       ave  obp  slg ab run hit 2b 3b hr bi sb
Zym   .268 .339 .483 205 27  55 14  0 10 42 0
James .261 .344 .472 142 19  37  9  0  7 25 0

Marlon Anderson 2b/of
       ave  obp  slg ab run hit 2b 3b hr bi sb
Zym   .273 .328 .441 245 34  67 12  1  9 29 4
James .261 .320 .400 230 29  60 12  1  6 26 4

Jeff Kent 2b
       ave  obp  slg ab run hit 2b 3b hr bi sb
Zym   .272 .352 .473 427 66 116 28  2 18 77 2
James .286 .366 .487 538 83 154 35  2 23 93 3

Wilson Betemit 
       ave  obp  slg ab run hit 2b 3b hr bi sb
Zym   .262 .328 .451 359 49  94 21 11  5 51 2
James .268 .331 .343 400 54 107 22 31  4 54 2

Andy LaRoche 
       ave obp slg ab run hit 2b 3b hr bi sb
Zym   .274.349.443 467 63 128 26  1 17 68 6
James .287.373.462 457 74 131 26  0 18 77 9

Rafael Furcal ss
       ave obp slg ab  run hit 2b 3b hr bi sb
Zym   .286.358.431 626 109 179 32  7 15 64 32
James .287.356.418 631 108 181 32  6 13 59 32

Russell Martin  
       ave obp slg ab  run hit  2b 3b hr bi sb
Zym   .279 .359 .432 495 80 138 30  2 14 73 11
James .288 .333 .365 424 71 122 27  2  9 63 11

Mike Lieberthal  
       ave  obp  slg ab run hit 2b 3b hr bi sb
Zym   .248 .315 .404 314 34  78 19  0 10 41 0
James .274 .340 .438 329 39  90 21  0 11 47 0

Matt Kemp of
       ave  obp  slg ab  run hit 2b 3b hr bi sb
Zym   .292 .342 .478 538  87 157 33  5 19 85 21
James .311 .365 .505 576 111 179 39  6 20 98 23

Juan Pierre cf
       ave  obp  slg ab run hit 2b 3b hr bi sb
Zym   .296 .341 .380 663 93 196 25 11  3 62 45
James .299 .346 .373 633 89 189 25  8  2 42 49

Andre Ethier of
       ave  obp  slg ab run hit 2b 3b hr bi sb
Zym   .296 .366 .463 520 82 154 27  6 16 72 5
James .306 .367 .466 592 88 181 32  6 17 82 7

Luis Gonzalez of
       ave  obp  slg ab run hit 2b 3b hr bi sb
Zym   .248 .342 .412 517 70 128 41  1 14 67 1
James .276 .372 .461 475 74 131 32  1 18 70 1


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