Baseball Prospectus: L.A. Staff at Risk

Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, in his annual report of the health of each club's roster, has run up red flags for four Dodgers starters and a prospective fifth starter. A complex system is used to categorize the coming season. One position player, shortstop Rafael Furcal, is also tagged red.

Carroll used a system called PIPP, using an actuarial baseline. "It takes into account the actual injury risk of a player of a give age group (for example 24-26, 27-29 etc) and position. Other factors that go into the mix are team injury history, player injury history, PECOTA attrition and several others.

You can read his entire Dodgers health report on their excellent website,

The system then lists the risks for each player, green (good), yellow (caution) and red (danger) much like a stoplight. It then categorizes that risk into one of three bands, signified by a color - red, yellow, or green, like a stoplight."

Here's a brief look at the Dodgers:

Green: Russell Martin, James Loney, Rafael Belliard, Andre Ethier, Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill

Yellow: Casey Blake, Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp

Red: Rafael Furcal, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Vicente Padilla, James McDonald

Quantril, Roth in Canadian HOF
Former Dodgers reliever Paul Quantrill and the late Dodgers statistician and native Montrealer Alan Roth will be inducted into the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame on June 19 in St. Marys, Ontario.

Quantril, born in London, Ontario, pitched for the Dodgers in 2002 and 2003, leading the league in appearances both seasons. He also recorded earned run averages of 2.70 (2002) and 1.75 in 2003.

He was drafted by the Dodgers in the 26th round of the 1986 draft but didn't sign. He did sign with the Red Sox in 1989 and later was traded to the Dodgers by Toronto, along with shortstop Cesar Izturis for pitchers Chad Ricketts and Luke Prokopec.

He played for the Red Sox, Phillies, Blue Jays, Yankees, Padres and Marlins. He recorded 68 wins, 21 saves and a 3.83 ERA over his 14-year career, striking out 725 over 1,255 innings, and he was an All-Star in 2001.

He played for Team Canada during the inaugural World Baseball Classic, in 2006, and coached Team Canada in the 2009 Classic.

Roth, referred to as the "Father of Sabermetrics" by Bill James, was a pioneer in convincing teams to use statistics as a tactic.

After charting stats for his hometown Montreal Canadiens and the National Hockey League, Roth became the first full-time statistician to be hired by a Major League club when Brooklyn Dodgers President and general manager Branch Rickey hired him in 1947.

Roth, who will be represented by his son Michael at the induction ceremony, died in 1992 at the age of 74.

"We are well aware that baseball has a very long and rich history in Canada," Michael Roth told officials at the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame. "My dad was baseball's preeminent statistician, working with the Brooklyn and L.A. Dodgers, but he originally fell in love with baseball as a child in Montreal and enjoyed seeing the Royals when he could.

"As a young man, he was thrilled watching the exploits of a young infielder named Jackie Robinson, and my father joined the Dodgers organization in 1947, the very same year that Jackie broke the color barrier. My father then went on to a 45-year career working in Major League Baseball, but it all started in Canada."

Dodger Blue Notes-- The Minnesota Twins signed 2B Orlando Hudson to a one year, $5 million contract. ...Baltimore signed Of/INF Joel Guzman, 25, to a minor league contract. Guzman hit .268 in 24 games last season with Washington. ...The NY Mets signed 1B Val Pascucci to a minor league contract. ...The Angels signed RHP Travis Chick to a minor league contract.

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