Rick Scuteri / USA TODAY Sports

How Many Wins Are the Giants Giving Up in Free Agency?

With a number of players hitting the free agent market in just another day, how many wins will the San Francisco Giants have to recoup through free agent signings and player development?

After the Giants were eliminated from the playoffs by the Cubs we took a look at which players on the roster would be hitting free agency. If you're looking for the list, it can be found here. Or you can look at the table below. Either works, really. 

WAR Position
Peavy 0.9 SP
Pagan 2.1 OF
Romo 0.2 RP
Casilla 0.3 RP
Lopez -0.6 RP
Blanco -0.7 OF

The fact that Santiago Casilla was worth only one-tenth of a win more than Sergio Romo isn't terribly surprising, even with Romo missing a large chunk of the season due to injury. If the trio of Romo, Lopez and Casilla were all to depart, the Giants would need league average relievers to make up the difference of those three in the bullpen in order to maintain the status quo. A big name like Melancon would be the cherry on top. 

Pagan is the biggest fish likely to get away, but even his WAR production is certainly manageable for one player, like a Mac Williamson. Asking Mac and Jarrett Parker (if no other options are brought on board) to manage a 1.4 WAR between them to match the production of Pagan/Blanco isn't asking a whole lot either. If Williamson received roughly triple the number of plate appearances over the course of the year (he had 127 in 2016) he'd have a 1.5 WAR thanks to some solid defense and an average bat. That bat is sure to develop as he gets more playing time.

Parker posted a 0.2 WAR in 151 plate appearances and was better at the plate than in the field, but combined with Mac could form a nice duo to replace Pagan and Blanco. The bigger question here is what the team does for depth if/when Span and Pence miss time. 

Ty Blach should be able to provide an upgrade over Peavy after posting a 0.2 WAR in just 17 innings compared to Peavy's 118 2/3. The rate at which Blach accumulated his WAR total isn't likely to continue, but he could easily be a two to three win pitcher out of the fifth spot in the rotation or as the long man in the pen. 

All in all, the Giants are losing 2.2 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs' metrics, and with some of the young talent they have on hand they should be able to compensate for that and then some, and if the Giants make a splash this winter then we could see a nice little jump over 2016's production which already had them as a playoff caliber team. 


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