MMLN - Analyzing the Starting Rotations

The minor league season is underway, and the four long-season clubs are going into the year with an assortment of arms that including minor league veterans, system veterans and young up and comers. But were the starting pitchers properly assigned? How will they matchup in the league to which they were assigned? Look inside for the answers to those questions and more.

Buffalo (AAA)

Dillon Gee: The right-hander took the ball for the Bisons on Opening Day, a "reward" that can be attributed to Gee's success with the Mets' last September and his position as the likely first call up to New York should the situation arise. Right now, it appears Gee, who set a Bisons modern record in strikeouts last season, will have to wait for a promotion until a current member of the Mets staff provides continually poor production or Gee is so lights out that he forces his way to New York. Either way, Gee is fairly polished at this point and may be forced to simply wait his turn.

Jenrry Mejia: Mejia is finally back in a minor league rotation – where he belongs for now – and was excellent in his first outing on Friday night (note: a feature on Mejia is going up on Monday).There is absolutely no reason to push Mejia at this point. It's rarely good to make a long-term projection off one start, but if Mejia's outing on Friday showed us anything, it is that he is likely ready to achieve consistent success at Triple-A, gaining the necessary seasoning to make the jump in 2012.

Pat Misch: Misch returns to Buffalo where he had an excellent 2010 season before helping out in New York. In 2010, Misch went 11-4 with a 3.23 ERA with a 99/24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 23 starts (150.2 IP). Misch is obviously a veteran with no prospect consideration, but the strength of his season could determine if he or Dillon Gee is first off the farm in a time of need.

Boof Bonser: Bonser comes over to the Mets organization after splitting time with the Pawtucket Red Sox and pitching in the Oakland A's organization in 2010. He went 2-3 with a 5.59 ERA in 56.1 Triple-A innings last year, in the International and Pacific Coast Leagues.

Casey Fossum found a job in the Mets organization after making just a few appears with the organization in 2010. He assumes the fifth spot in the Bisons rotation, but could easily be on his way out if/when a starter from Double-A proves ready to move up to Triple-A.

BINGHAMTON (AA)

Josh Stinson: Stinson got the ball as the B-Mets Opening Day starter, an assignment that surprised me after Stinson went to Buffalo last season and was added to the 40-man roster. The move was also surprising because there were open spots in the Buffalo rotation. Nevertheless, returning to Binghamton gives Stinson the opportunity to start the season in a league he knows very well and where has achieved success. Stinson, who tossed five scoreless innings and gave up two hits in his first 2011 start, may not be long for Binghamton should he get off to a strong start. That is likely why the organization sent him back to Double-A, so Stinson could settle into the season before moving up. His assignment shouldn't be seen as a sign of his value.

Mark Cohoon: The left-hander looks to pick up where left off with Binghamton last August, which was a hot streak that showed he is ready to tackle Double-A. Cohoon too was efficient if not sharp in his first outing, giving up one earned run on seven hits with five strikeouts and two walks in five innings. This was obviously the right assignment for Cohoon, who is slowly but surely improving his stock. He is not flashy in his repertoire, but if he has another good year in Binghamton, Cohoon may emerge as the most valuable left-hander at the highest level of the farm.

Brad Holt: Now there is the case of Brad Holt. The right-hander makes his first start of the year on Saturday after a mysterious 2010 season that had him all over the map. There was nothing to gain by sending back to St. Lucie to begin the 2011 season. Now is the time for Holt to show he has regained his stuff and can reassert himself as a high-value guy in the organization. Scouts still vouch for Holt's ability, but he has got to prove it.

Robert Carson: The left-hander definitely had a rough go of it during his first trip through the Eastern League last year, posting an 8.32 ERA and a .343 opposing average in 10 starts. Now Carson needs to show he has learned from the experience and can use the range of his repertoire to be effective as a starter at this level. To me, he still projects best as a reliever, but Carson's spot in the rotation will force him to develop his slider and other secondary pitches.

Brandon Moore: Moore got one start in Binghamton last year and returns to man the fifth spot in the rotation. Moore's game is well-rounded, now the biggest challenge for him will be finding new ways to get outs against higher-caliber hitters in an offensive league. Moore possesses good breaking pitches, but pitching to success with his 89-91 MPH fastball will be pivotal.

ST. LUCIE (HI-A)

Matt Harvey: There was no reason to start Harvey anywhere but St. Lucie. The 7th overall pick with three years of major college experience should be able to handle the Florida State League. Going by his first start, in which he gave up five hits in five shutout innings and struck out, Harvey will adapt to the FSL with relative ease. Could that set him up to get to Binghamton by mid-season? I think that will be the case.

Jeurys Familia: I thought all along Familia would start the year in Binghamton, but the rationale for returning to St. Lucie is pretty clear. The right-hander still needs work on refining his secondary pitches, and by starting him in St. Lucie, the organization can help him do that without the harsh weather conditions of Double-A while letting him pitch at a level he's comfortable in. Familia showed that comfort by giving up only one hit in seven innings with seven strikeouts and zero walks in his first start – his best start in St. Lucie to date.

Kyle Allen: Allen spent most of the 2010 pitching through an injury, so there was really no way he was going to start the season anywhere but St. Lucie. Allen mentioned his objectives during last month's Q&A. Allen is still only 21 years old so there is no reason to rush or push him. Getting Allen back to 100 percent in the Florida State League is the priority.

Collin McHugh: McHugh moves up after spending the entire 2010 season in Savannah, where he went 7-8 with a 3.33 ERA , 129 strikeouts and 38 walks in 132.1 innings. Therefore, moving up to this level is simply the next step. McHugh doesn't have an overpowering pitch, but he mixes everything well and uses his command to his advantage. That should help him in the pitcher-friendly FSL.

Scott Moviel: Moviel takes the ball on Saturday, but I list him fifth because he may be the guy that ends up in the rotating spot with other pitchers, including Eric Beaulac and Armando Rodriguez when he returns from injury. Moviel had mixed results in 2010, and Beaulac is still working on regaining strength from offseason surgery. This spot is something to keep an eye on this season.

SAVANNAH (Lo-A)

Greg Peavey: The 2010 sixth round pick was lights out like Matt Harvey when he took the mound as the Sand Gnats Opening Day starter. Peavey went five innings, gave up two hits, struck out eight and walked on. Could the organization have tried to push him to St. Lucie? Potentially, but with more veteran guys still in need of a spot in the FSL, sending Peavey to Savannah was the right call. However, with likely mid-seasons promotions coming to those in St. Lucie, should everything go as expected, Peavey figures to get a good look at the FSL in the second half.

Ryan Fraser: Fraser moves into the rotation this year, so sending him to Savannah was the right call. Had the organization kept him in the bullpen, he would have gone to St. Lucie. This is the right call by the organization because even though Fraser has a very good fastball, stretching out a pitcher and skipping him a level is not an ideal recipe for success.

Yohan Almonte: The 21-year-old right-hander was one of the best in the New York-Penn League last season. He has a good mix of pitches, but all are still fairly raw, so pacing his development in Savannah was the right call. Almonte should most, if not all, of the season in Savannah.

Savannah figures to have some piggybacking in the back half of the rotation, including Erik Goeddel, Tyler Whitenton, Gonzalez Germen, Chase Huchingson and Angel Cuan.

\r\n \r\n\r\nBuffalo (AAA)
\r\n
\r\nDillon Gee: The right-hander took the ball for the Bisons on Opening Day, a \"reward\" that can be attributed to Gee's success with the Mets' last September and his position as the likely first call up to New York should the situation arise. Right now, it appears Gee, who set a Bisons modern record in strikeouts last season, will have to wait for a promotion until a current member of the Mets staff provides continually poor production or Gee is so lights out that he forces his way to New York. Either way, Gee is fairly polished at this point and may be forced to simply wait his turn.
\r\n
\r\nJenrry Mejia: Mejia is finally back in a minor league rotation – where he belongs for now – and was excellent in his first outing on Friday night (note: a feature on Mejia is going up on Monday).There is absolutely no reason to push Mejia at this point. It's rarely good to make a long-term projection off one start, but if Mejia's outing on Friday showed us anything, it is that he is likely ready to achieve consistent success at Triple-A, gaining the necessary seasoning to make the jump in 2012.
\r\n
\r\nPat Misch: Misch returns to Buffalo where he had an excellent 2010 season before helping out in New York. In 2010, Misch went 11-4 with a 3.23 ERA with a 99/24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 23 starts (150.2 IP). Misch is obviously a veteran with no prospect consideration, but the strength of his season could determine if he or Dillon Gee is first off the farm in a time of need.
\r\n
\r\nBoof Bonser: Bonser comes over to the Mets organization after splitting time with the Pawtucket Red Sox and pitching in the Oakland A's organization in 2010. He went 2-3 with a 5.59 ERA in 56.1 Triple-A innings last year, in the International and Pacific Coast Leagues.
\r\n
\r\nCasey Fossum found a job in the Mets organization after making just a few appears with the organization in 2010. He assumes the fifth spot in the Bisons rotation, but could easily be on his way out if/when a starter from Double-A proves ready to move up to Triple-A.
\r\n
\r\nBINGHAMTON (AA)
\r\n
\r\nJosh Stinson: Stinson got the ball as the B-Mets Opening Day starter, an assignment that surprised me after Stinson went to Buffalo last season and was added to the 40-man roster. The move was also surprising because there were open spots in the Buffalo rotation. Nevertheless, returning to Binghamton gives Stinson the opportunity to start the season in a league he knows very well and where has achieved success. Stinson, who tossed five scoreless innings and gave up two hits in his first 2011 start, may not be long for Binghamton should he get off to a strong start. That is likely why the organization sent him back to Double-A, so Stinson could settle into the season before moving up. His assignment shouldn't be seen as a sign of his value.
\r\n
\r\nMark Cohoon: The left-hander looks to pick up where left off with Binghamton last August, which was a hot streak that showed he is ready to tackle Double-A. Cohoon too was efficient if not sharp in his first outing, giving up one earned run on seven hits with five strikeouts and two walks in five innings. This was obviously the right assignment for Cohoon, who is slowly but surely improving his stock. He is not flashy in his repertoire, but if he has another good year in Binghamton, Cohoon may emerge as the most valuable left-hander at the highest level of the farm.
\r\n
\r\nBrad Holt: Now there is the case of Brad Holt. The right-hander makes his first start of the year on Saturday after a mysterious 2010 season that had him all over the map. There was nothing to gain by sending back to St. Lucie to begin the 2011 season. Now is the time for Holt to show he has regained his stuff and can reassert himself as a high-value guy in the organization. Scouts still vouch for Holt's ability, but he has got to prove it.
\r\n
\r\nRobert Carson: The left-hander definitely had a rough go of it during his first trip through the Eastern League last year, posting an 8.32 ERA and a .343 opposing average in 10 starts. Now Carson needs to show he has learned from the experience and can use the range of his repertoire to be effective as a starter at this level. To me, he still projects best as a reliever, but Carson's spot in the rotation will force him to develop his slider and other secondary pitches.
\r\n
\r\nBrandon Moore: Moore got one start in Binghamton last year and returns to man the fifth spot in the rotation. Moore's game is well-rounded, now the biggest challenge for him will be finding new ways to get outs against higher-caliber hitters in an offensive league. Moore possesses good breaking pitches, but pitching to success with his 89-91 MPH fastball will be pivotal.
\r\n
\r\nST. LUCIE (HI-A)
\r\n
\r\nMatt Harvey: There was no reason to start Harvey anywhere but St. Lucie. The 7th overall pick with three years of major college experience should be able to handle the Florida State League. Going by his first start, in which he gave up five hits in five shutout innings and struck out, Harvey will adapt to the FSL with relative ease. Could that set him up to get to Binghamton by mid-season? I think that will be the case.
\r\n
\r\nJeurys Familia: I thought all along Familia would start the year in Binghamton, but the rationale for returning to St. Lucie is pretty clear. The right-hander still needs work on refining his secondary pitches, and by starting him in St. Lucie, the organization can help him do that without the harsh weather conditions of Double-A while letting him pitch at a level he's comfortable in. Familia showed that comfort by giving up only one hit in seven innings with seven strikeouts and zero walks in his first start – his best start in St. Lucie to date.
\r\n
\r\nKyle Allen: Allen spent most of the 2010 pitching through an injury, so there was really no way he was going to start the season anywhere but St. Lucie. Allen mentioned his objectives during last month's Q&A. Allen is still only 21 years old so there is no reason to rush or push him. Getting Allen back to 100 percent in the Florida State League is the priority.
\r\n
\r\nCollin McHugh: McHugh moves up after spending the entire 2010 season in Savannah, where he went 7-8 with a 3.33 ERA , 129 strikeouts and 38 walks in 132.1 innings. Therefore, moving up to this level is simply the next step. McHugh doesn't have an overpowering pitch, but he mixes everything well and uses his command to his advantage. That should help him in the pitcher-friendly FSL.
\r\n
\r\nScott Moviel: Moviel takes the ball on Saturday, but I list him fifth because he may be the guy that ends up in the rotating spot with other pitchers, including Eric Beaulac and Armando Rodriguez when he returns from injury. Moviel had mixed results in 2010, and Beaulac is still working on regaining strength from offseason surgery. This spot is something to keep an eye on this season.
\r\n
\r\nSAVANNAH (Lo-A)
\r\n
\r\nGreg Peavey: The 2010 sixth round pick was lights out like Matt Harvey when he took the mound as the Sand Gnats Opening Day starter. Peavey went five innings, gave up two hits, struck out eight and walked on. Could the organization have tried to push him to St. Lucie? Potentially, but with more veteran guys still in need of a spot in the FSL, sending Peavey to Savannah was the right call. However, with likely mid-seasons promotions coming to those in St. Lucie, should everything go as expected, Peavey figures to get a good look at the FSL in the second half.
\r\n
\r\nRyan Fraser: Fraser moves into the rotation this year, so sending him to Savannah was the right call. Had the organization kept him in the bullpen, he would have gone to St. Lucie. This is the right call by the organization because even though Fraser has a very good fastball, stretching out a pitcher and skipping him a level is not an ideal recipe for success.
\r\n
\r\nYohan Almonte: The 21-year-old right-hander was one of the best in the New York-Penn League last season. He has a good mix of pitches, but all are still fairly raw, so pacing his development in Savannah was the right call. Almonte should most, if not all, of the season in Savannah.
\r\n
\r\nSavannah figures to have some piggybacking in the back half of the rotation, including Erik Goeddel, Tyler Whitenton, Gonzalez Germen, Chase Huchingson and Angel Cuan.
\r\n
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