Final 2003 Scouting Report: OF, Angel Pagan

Angel Pagan was a 1999 draft and follow who signed in May 2000. Pagan did not play for his high school team. He was discovered in a tryout camp. Scouts projected him to potentially be a 25-30HR hitter once he filled out. But, the Mets have focused Pagan on hitting ground balls to take advantage of his speed especially from the left side. Twenty years ago, the Mets developed Lenny Dykstra in a similar fashion. (Free Preview of Premium Content)

Thus, Pagan is unlikely to achieve his 25-30 HR potential. Due to a lack of scholastic development, Pagan is raw in most areas save defense and bunting. Pagan has great confidence and is very coachable.

While Pagan makes steady progress, his ratios are not yet acceptable as a lead off hitter. Not only did his stolen base success rate drop from 74% in 2002 to 70% in 2003, but Pagan's total number of SBs dropped drastically from 62 in 2002 to just 35 in 2003. Pagan's 0.7 BB per 10 AB and 1.8 K per 10 AB are not good peripheral numbers for an aspiring leadoff hitter. All together these ratios demonstrate that he has a ways to go to overcome his rawness.

Year

Team

AVG.

AB

Hits

HR

RBI

R

SB

BB

K

OBP

SLG

2003

St. Lucie

.249

441

110

1

33

64

35

35

80

.307

.313

2002

St. Lucie

.343

67

20

1

7

12

10

7

9

.405

.448

2002

Cap City

.279

458

128

1

36

79

52

32

87

.325

.338

2001

Cap City

.298

57

17

0

5

4

3

6

5

.365

.351

2001

Brooklyn

.317

221

70

0

14

42

28

21

26

.401

.373

2000

Kingsport

.361

72

26

0

8

13

6

6

8

.410

.458


*Stats as of 9/7/03.

Batting and Power. Pagan is a much better hitter from the right side than the left. The Mets have Pagan working on slapping the ball on the ground or hitting line drive from the left side to take advantage of his speed. Pagan is already an accomplished bunter from both sides. As he physically matures, Pagan project to improve his power. While Pagan needs to draw more walks and make better contact, he did display better discipline at Brooklyn in 2001.

Base Running and Speed. Pagan has great speed and quickness. While he is very aggressive on the base paths, Pagan is not yet a real good base runner or base stealer. He has improved his success rate. Still, Pagan has more progress to make.

Defense. Angel Pagan plays a shallow centerfield and projects to be an outstanding defensive player with a good arm.

Projection. Pagan's defensive skills keep him in the outfield loop. Reserve outfielder/defensive replacement.

ETA. 2006. He may have a cup of coffee in 2005.

Outfielders Team
Prentice Redman AAA - Norfolk Tides
Esix Snead AAA - Norfolk Tides
Matthew Watson AAA - Norfolk Tides
Jeff Duncan AA - Binghamton Mets
Ronald Acuna AA - Binghamton Mets
Angel Pagan A - St. Lucie Mets
Bobby Malek A - St. Lucie Mets
Jonathan Slack A - Capital City Bombers
Alhaji Turay A - Capital City Bombers
Derran Watts A - Brooklyn Cyclones
Seth Pietsch A - Brooklyn Cyclones
Corey Coles A - Brooklyn Cyclones
Jamar Hill R - Kingsport Mets
Roberto Solano R - Kingsport Mets
Tyler Davidson R - Kingsport Mets
Lastings Milledge R - Kingsport Mets
Jesus Gamera R - Tronconero Mets
Anthony Cerda R - DSL Mets


COMMENTS


Outfield is not a strength of the organization especially in the long season leagues. The Mets have a serious shortage of power hitting OFers. Only, Turay projects to be a 30 HR type. In the short season leagues the Mets have 4-5 hitters that might top 30 HR should thy make it to the MLB level in Pietsch, Hill, Milledge, Davidson, and Solano. The Mets have a number of leadoff hitters types in Chavez, Parker, Slack, Cole, Pagan, Snead, Watts and Lydon. Milledge projects to be a power hitting leadoff hitter.

1. Lastings Milledge has the highest ceiling of any Mets prospect since Darryl Strawberry. Milledge's tools which all the scouting reports emphasized overlooked that he is a polished hitter, fielder and base runner. He's not a toolsie player trying to learn how to convert his astonishing tools into usable baseball skills. He's already well down the road of converting those tools into usable baseball skills. IMO, the Mets potentially have an Andruw Jones type player with better patience at the plate, and better base running and stealing skills.

2. Bob Malek is the only left-handed hitting OF with any power. He likely projects to 18-22 HR power projection. TJ elbow surgery has delayed his development, but his collegiate ratios suggest he'd be a high average hitter. Malek will be rule 5 draft eligible for the first time following the 2004 season.

3. Alhaji Turay's performance was clearly affected by a number of minor injuries in 2003.

4. Prentice Redman still has the look of a nice 4th or 5th OF, but Redman has sufficient power potential that should it develop, he projects to start at LF.

5. Angel Pagan has slid since it doesn't appear that the Mets will begin to develop his power potential soon if at all. He projects to be more of a platton-type player in CF.

6. Jamar Hill is a draft and follow signee from Alaska by way of Santa Ana Junior College in California. He can also play 3B. He has great projectibility and could develop 30 HR plus power. Hill will be rule 5-draft eligible following the 2004 season.

7. Tyler Davidson missed 2002 with a fractured forearm. He has the best power potential of any player in the system including Craig Brazell (1B) and Brandon Wilson (C). Davidson was considered something of a project when the Mets drafted him. So, slow development was anticipated even without the fractured forearm. He'll be rule 5-draft eligible for the first time following the 2004 season. I don't anticipate he'll be on the 40-man roster or that he'll be selected in the rule 5 draft after 2004.

8. Matt Watson, despite his recent success, projects to be a nice pinch hitter and a reserve in the OF. Keep in mind that the noted slugged Jorge Velandia (admittedly with more ABs) has as many HRs and more doubles and triples than Watson. Watson's 14 BB in 159 ABs remains unimpressive for someone who has displayed as limited HR power as he has. Watson possesses limited speed and is a weak defender. Watson has already been passed on as a rule 5 draftee following the 2001 and 2002 seasons.

9. Corey Coles has some power and adds a needed left-handed bat with some pop. He can also pitch.

10. Seth Pietsch has excellent power, but needs to improve his plate discipline and approach to hitting.

11. Miguel Garcia has been brought of from the Dominican Republic, but he hasn't played very much.

12. Wayne Lydon has begun to demonstrate that he is converting his raw tools beyond his speed into useable baseball skills, however, he has a ways to go.

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