The U Files # 68: 2004 Batting Projections

The Mets can be remembered for good pitching, but in recent times they've been more known for bad hitting. The same players hailed for bringing defensive intensity to the Mets will be counted on to produce more offense than the players they replace. The Mets may also hope that improved health may bring more runs. Here we will consider the Mets offense in the upcoming season.

Forecasting the production of a baseball player is not a fully reliable science. Year-to-year performance is often affected by random fluctuations. One year of data is generally not good for generating projections, the best systems use at least three years of data to estimate a player's "true" performance level. The result is what one would expect outside of any unforeseeable changes in the player and noise – or what one would get on average if the same season were played many times.

The projections, first by likely batting order:

Name

AB

H

2B

3B

HR

BB

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

XR

K. Matsui

575

164

37

5

15

48

.285

.341

.445

.786

84

J. Reyes

515

155

28

6

10

38

.301

.341

.437

.778

76

C. Floyd

495

144

38

1

26

75

.291

.375

.529

.904

93

M. Piazza

471

128

24

0

27

70

.272

.366

.495

.855

79

M. Cameron

535

137

33

1

23

75

.256

.349

.450

.799

80

J. Phillips

480

130

30

0

14

50

.271

.344

.420

.764

67

K. Garcia

410

103

22

0

20

33

.251

.300

.451

.751

53

T. Wigginton

565

147

32

4

13

46

.260

.315

.400

.715

66

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

S. Spencer

335

87

21

0

11

36

.260

.330

.421

.751

41

T. Perez

320

89

24

2

5

21

.278

.320

.413

.733

37

J. McEwing

250

58

13

1

3

18

.232

.291

.328

.619

19

T. Zeile

170

39

7

0

4

21

.229

.318

.341

.659

17

V. Wilson

185

43

7

0

5

9

.235

.265

.351

.616

17

Totals

5306

1343

316

20

156

540

.253

.334

.408

.734

730



The team is strong in OBP through the first six spots in the batting order, but weak at the bottom of the lineup and in the bench. Overall the OBP came out close to average. The team does not project to great home run power but does project to good doubles power. On the whole it is a close to average offensive unit.

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