Prospect Pulse: Stock Falling

There have been many surprises among the Mets' prospects this season and quite a few disappointing performances as well. With the month of April now over, InsidePitchMagazine.com lists the prospects whose stock is falling as a result of their early struggles this season.

OF, Angel Pagan: Pagan got the nod over Lydon to be the Tides' starting center fielder this season and both have struggled in the early going this year. He's a leadoff hitter that has really had a hard time getting on base in that role so far. Hitting just .239 overall, Pagan is actually doing a lot worse when leading off an inning, hitting just .188 in those situations through his first 22 games this season. Pagan, who has struggled with his stolen base success rate in the past, has been a non-factor on the base paths in 2005, even when he has been on base. He has been caught stealing (4) twice as many times as he's stolen a base (2) and he has only scored nine runs.

RP, Blake McGinley: McGinley has not pitched too badly through his first nine games, that is, not for a normal pitcher. But a lot was expected of McGinley after entering the season with a career mark of 28-8 with 28 saves and a 2.75 ERA. He has given up more earned runs than innings pitched in four of his first nine innings pitched. But as bad as that may look, his lack of success against left-handed hitters is the more alarming stat. Lefties are hitting .381 off of him in the early going.

1B/3B, Jay Caligiuri: We didn't have Jay ranked in our Top 50 Mets' Prospects this past offseason, but we still liked what he brought to the table. But Caligiuiri, along with the majority of the Binghamton offense, has struggled coming out of the gate this season. Even when he has struggled with his batting average in the past, he has always been able to get on base at an acceptable rate. Such is not the case in his first 20 games this season. Hitting just .216, Caligiuri has drawn just 3 walks while striking out 19 times.

OF, Wayne Lydon: A career .261 hitter, nobody is expecting Lydon to turn into a .300 overnight. However, not too many people would have thought Lydon would have struggled so badly to begin the 2005 season after being sent back to AA-Binghamton. Lydon's .192 batting average and .284 on-base percentage thus far are unacceptable from a leadoff man with his speed. Some scouts have compared him to Roger Cedeno and Lydon has done nothing to disprove those comparisons through his first 21 games this season.

C, Joe Hietpas: We have mentioned several times that all Hietpas needs to do to become a legitimate starting catcher at the Major League level is hit around .250 because his defense and his ability to work with pitchers is just that good. However, just a .220 hitter in his four-year minor league career, Hietpas hasn't been able to reach his career mark thus far. He's hitting just .214 through his first 18 games, scoring a grand total of two runs. He'll need to turn it around pretty quickly.

2B, Aarom Baldiris: It's tough to say a player hitting .293 is truly struggling, but it is the same old story with Baldiris in 2005. Baldiris not only lacks the power of a corner infielder, prompting his move to second base, but has shown a lack of power even for a middle infielder. Despite being one of the better contact hitters, Baldiris has not produced in the clutch. He is hitting just .211 with runners in scoring position this season and all four of his extra-base hits have come with the bases empty.

SP, Matthew Lindstrom: Lindstrom has struggled in his first taste of AA baseball this season, going 0-2 with a 6.27 ERA through his first five starts for the Binghamton Mets. A big reason for his rough start has been his lack of control in the early going. Lindstrom has walked more batters than he has struck out in three of his five starts in 2005 (and on the year overall), including walking the leadoff batter six times. You're not going to win too many games walking the leadoff man.

3B, Shawn Bowman: Shawn Bowman, despite his struggles making consistent contact in 2004, provided some good power numbers last season. It would not have been a surprise to see him struggle once again making contact, especially considering the early stages of his development. But very few people around baseball would have expected Bowman to struggle in his all-around offensive game. Hitting just .144 through his first 23 games, it is lack of success against left-handed pitchers that is the more troubling stat. Bowman is hitting just .067 against southpaws this season and his 36 K's in 23 games puts him at a dangerous strikeout rate this year.

C, Yunir Garcia: Like Caligiuri, we didn't rank Garcia in our Top 50 Mets' Prospects this past offseason but he had put himself on the prospect radar with a good showing at Capital City in 2004. However, he's reverted back to his old form through his first 19 games with the St. Lucie Mets this season. The power numbers are fine as his selectivity at the plate, drawing a team-high 12 walks. He just is not making enough consistent contact, hitting .188 overall and just .105 with runners in scoring position, which resembles more of the career .227 hitter and not the .270 hitter of a year ago.

OF, Jamar Hill: Hill told us this past offseason that his goal in 2005 was to hit 40 home runs this season. With just one home run in his first 22 games this season, he's going to have to turn into Babe Ruth overnight to reach his goal. Even forgetting the lack of power for a moment, the fact is Hill has simply not produced when the team has needed him the most. He's hitting just .077 with runners in scoring position and 18 of his team-high 38 strikeouts have come with runners on base, so he's not even getting the productive outs.

OF, Lastings Milledge: A series of nagging injuries has limited Milledge to just 13 games this season. His overall numbers are not horrific, but a lot is expected of him as the #1 prospect in the Mets' farm system. If there is good news to his overall numbers (.216-1-5) it is the fact that Milledge has been moved down to the #3 spot in the lineup when he has played. His splits tell it all in the early going. Milledge has just one hit when leading off an inning and hitting .194 when the bases are empty, but is hitting .333 with runners in scoring position...all the clear signs of a run producer.

OF, Alhaji Turay: One of the main knocks on Turay was his inability to stay healthy and remain in the lineup consistently. Although it is still way early in the season, Turay has been able to be a mainstay in the lineup, but he hasn't been able to produce when he is in there. Through his first 18 games this season, Turay is hitting just .164 with one home run and he is still looking for his first walk in 2005. He had a stretch of six consecutive games without a hit and he's hoping that May is a much better month for him.

OF, Ambiorix Concepcion: Concepcion has been one of the few Hagerstown batters to struggle this season, hitting just .181-2-8 in his first 22 games. Starting off slowly is not something new to Concepcion however. He began the 2004 season hitting just .231-2-12 in his first 22 games with the Brooklyn Cyclones last year. Whether his slow start this year is just a trend of being a slow starter overall remains to be seen. The one thing that appears more likely however is that Concepcion could be one of the first top prospects to be traded before the trade deadline in July, if he can improve his stock with a hot streak before then.

OF, Jesus Gamero: Gamero is the other Hagerstown batter that has struggled right from the get-go with the Suns. He has hit just .164 in his first 16 games with just two RBI, seeing his playing time dwindle as a result. His lack of production has given more playing time to the likes of Corey Coles and Derran Watts. Do not be surprised if you see Gamero playing outfield for the Brooklyn Cyclones this season once the short-season leagues open up in June. Chances are he was ticketed for Brooklyn anyway but his early struggles have all but cemented his path.

SP, Michael Devaney: Among the NY-Penn League leaders in ERA last season when he anchored the Cyclones' rotation, Devaney has not taken to the piggy-back situation in Hagerstown very well in 2005. He has not pitched beyond four innings in any of his five appearances this season after finishing the 2004 season with seven straight games of pitching five innings or more. Devaney's main problem has been keeping rallies from getting started. Holding opposing batters to just a .200 average with runners in scoring position, Devaney has been getting himself into trouble by allowing a .333 batting average to the leadoff hitters this season. Everyone knows the key to success as a pitcher is keeping the leadoff hitters from reaching base and Devaney simply has not done that thus far.

SP, Orlando Rengel: Rengel is not one of the premiere pitching prospects in the Mets' farm system yet, but he has some pretty stuff in his repertoire. After pitching well for the Kingsport Mets in 2004 (5-4, 3.26 ERA), Rengel has been getting lit up like a Christmas tree with the Hagerstown Suns so far this season. Through his first five appearances, Rengel has posted an 8.56 ERA and opposing South Atlantic League batters are hitting a mind-numbing .397 off of him this season. Like Gamero, chances are Rengel's ultimate destination this season was Brooklyn anyway, but his struggles are making that all the more likely.

Amazin Clubhouse Top Stories

\r\n \r\n\r\n\r\nOF, Angel Pagan: Pagan got the nod over Lydon to be the Tides' starting center fielder this season and both have struggled in the early going this year. He's a leadoff hitter that has really had a hard time getting on base in that role so far. Hitting just .239 overall, Pagan is actually doing a lot worse when leading off an inning, hitting just .188 in those situations through his first 22 games this season. Pagan, who has struggled with his stolen base success rate in the past, has been a non-factor on the base paths in 2005, even when he has been on base. He has been caught stealing (4) twice as many times as he's stolen a base (2) and he has only scored nine runs.
\r\n
\r\nRP, Blake McGinley: McGinley has not pitched too badly through his first nine games, that is, not for a normal pitcher. But a lot was expected of McGinley after entering the season with a career mark of 28-8 with 28 saves and a 2.75 ERA. He has given up more earned runs than innings pitched in four of his first nine innings pitched. But as bad as that may look, his lack of success against left-handed hitters is the more alarming stat. Lefties are hitting .381 off of him in the early going.
\r\n
\r\n1B/3B, Jay Caligiuri: We didn't have Jay ranked in our Top 50 Mets' Prospects this past offseason, but we still liked what he brought to the table. But Caligiuiri, along with the majority of the Binghamton offense, has struggled coming out of the gate this season. Even when he has struggled with his batting average in the past, he has always been able to get on base at an acceptable rate. Such is not the case in his first 20 games this season. Hitting just .216, Caligiuri has drawn just 3 walks while striking out 19 times.
\r\n
\r\nOF, Wayne Lydon: A career .261 hitter, nobody is expecting Lydon to turn into a .300 overnight. However, not too many people would have thought Lydon would have struggled so badly to begin the 2005 season after being sent back to AA-Binghamton. Lydon's .192 batting average and .284 on-base percentage thus far are unacceptable from a leadoff man with his speed. Some scouts have compared him to Roger Cedeno and Lydon has done nothing to disprove those comparisons through his first 21 games this season.
\r\n
\r\nC, Joe Hietpas: We have mentioned several times that all Hietpas needs to do to become a legitimate starting catcher at the Major League level is hit around .250 because his defense and his ability to work with pitchers is just that good. However, just a .220 hitter in his four-year minor league career, Hietpas hasn't been able to reach his career mark thus far. He's hitting just .214 through his first 18 games, scoring a grand total of two runs. He'll need to turn it around pretty quickly.
\r\n
\r\n2B, Aarom Baldiris: It's tough to say a player hitting .293 is truly struggling, but it is the same old story with Baldiris in 2005. Baldiris not only lacks the power of a corner infielder, prompting his move to second base, but has shown a lack of power even for a middle infielder. Despite being one of the better contact hitters, Baldiris has not produced in the clutch. He is hitting just .211 with runners in scoring position this season and all four of his extra-base hits have come with the bases empty.
\r\n
\r\nSP, Matthew Lindstrom: Lindstrom has struggled in his first taste of AA baseball this season, going 0-2 with a 6.27 ERA through his first five starts for the Binghamton Mets. A big reason for his rough start has been his lack of control in the early going. Lindstrom has walked more batters than he has struck out in three of his five starts in 2005 (and on the year overall), including walking the leadoff batter six times. You're not going to win too many games walking the leadoff man.
\r\n
\r\n3B, Shawn Bowman: Shawn Bowman, despite his struggles making consistent contact in 2004, provided some good power numbers last season. It would not have been a surprise to see him struggle once again making contact, especially considering the early stages of his development. But very few people around baseball would have expected Bowman to struggle in his all-around offensive game. Hitting just .144 through his first 23 games, it is lack of success against left-handed pitchers that is the more troubling stat. Bowman is hitting just .067 against southpaws this season and his 36 K's in 23 games puts him at a dangerous strikeout rate this year.
\r\n
\r\nC, Yunir Garcia: Like Caligiuri, we didn't rank Garcia in our Top 50 Mets' Prospects this past offseason but he had put himself on the prospect radar with a good showing at Capital City in 2004. However, he's reverted back to his old form through his first 19 games with the St. Lucie Mets this season. The power numbers are fine as his selectivity at the plate, drawing a team-high 12 walks. He just is not making enough consistent contact, hitting .188 overall and just .105 with runners in scoring position, which resembles more of the career .227 hitter and not the .270 hitter of a year ago.
\r\n
\r\nOF, Jamar Hill: Hill told us this past offseason that his goal in 2005 was to hit 40 home runs this season. With just one home run in his first 22 games this season, he's going to have to turn into Babe Ruth overnight to reach his goal. Even forgetting the lack of power for a moment, the fact is Hill has simply not produced when the team has needed him the most. He's hitting just .077 with runners in scoring position and 18 of his team-high 38 strikeouts have come with runners on base, so he's not even getting the productive outs.
\r\n
\r\nOF, Lastings Milledge: A series of nagging injuries has limited Milledge to just 13 games this season. His overall numbers are not horrific, but a lot is expected of him as the #1 prospect in the Mets' farm system. If there is good news to his overall numbers (.216-1-5) it is the fact that Milledge has been moved down to the #3 spot in the lineup when he has played. His splits tell it all in the early going. Milledge has just one hit when leading off an inning and hitting .194 when the bases are empty, but is hitting .333 with runners in scoring position...all the clear signs of a run producer.
\r\n
\r\nOF, Alhaji Turay: One of the main knocks on Turay was his inability to stay healthy and remain in the lineup consistently. Although it is still way early in the season, Turay has been able to be a mainstay in the lineup, but he hasn't been able to produce when he is in there. Through his first 18 games this season, Turay is hitting just .164 with one home run and he is still looking for his first walk in 2005. He had a stretch of six consecutive games without a hit and he's hoping that May is a much better month for him.
\r\n
\r\nOF, Ambiorix Concepcion: Concepcion has been one of the few Hagerstown batters to struggle this season, hitting just .181-2-8 in his first 22 games. Starting off slowly is not something new to Concepcion however. He began the 2004 season hitting just .231-2-12 in his first 22 games with the Brooklyn Cyclones last year. Whether his slow start this year is just a trend of being a slow starter overall remains to be seen. The one thing that appears more likely however is that Concepcion could be one of the first top prospects to be traded before the trade deadline in July, if he can improve his stock with a hot streak before then.
\r\n
\r\nOF, Jesus Gamero: Gamero is the other Hagerstown batter that has struggled right from the get-go with the Suns. He has hit just .164 in his first 16 games with just two RBI, seeing his playing time dwindle as a result. His lack of production has given more playing time to the likes of Corey Coles and Derran Watts. Do not be surprised if you see Gamero playing outfield for the Brooklyn Cyclones this season once the short-season leagues open up in June. Chances are he was ticketed for Brooklyn anyway but his early struggles have all but cemented his path.
\r\n
\r\nSP, Michael Devaney: Among the NY-Penn League leaders in ERA last season when he anchored the Cyclones' rotation, Devaney has not taken to the piggy-back situation in Hagerstown very well in 2005. He has not pitched beyond four innings in any of his five appearances this season after finishing the 2004 season with seven straight games of pitching five innings or more. Devaney's main problem has been keeping rallies from getting started. Holding opposing batters to just a .200 average with runners in scoring position, Devaney has been getting himself into trouble by allowing a .333 batting average to the leadoff hitters this season. Everyone knows the key to success as a pitcher is keeping the leadoff hitters from reaching base and Devaney simply has not done that thus far.
\r\n
\r\nSP, Orlando Rengel: Rengel is not one of the premiere pitching prospects in the Mets' farm system yet, but he has some pretty stuff in his repertoire. After pitching well for the Kingsport Mets in 2004 (5-4, 3.26 ERA), Rengel has been getting lit up like a Christmas tree with the Hagerstown Suns so far this season. Through his first five appearances, Rengel has posted an 8.56 ERA and opposing South Atlantic League batters are hitting a mind-numbing .397 off of him this season. Like Gamero, chances are Rengel's ultimate destination this season was Brooklyn anyway, but his struggles are making that all the more likely.
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