2002 Scouting Report: Angel Pagan

Angel Pagan was a 1999 draft and follow who signed in May 2000. Pagan did not play for his high school team. He was discovered in a tryout camp. Scouts projected him to potentially be a 25-30HR hitter once he filled out. But, the Mets have focused Pagan on hitting ground balls to take advantage of his speed especially from the left side. Twenty years ago, the Mets developed Lenny Dykstra in a similar fashion.

Thus, Pagan is unlikely to achieve his 25-30 HR potential. Due to a lack of scholastic development, Pagan is raw in most areas save defense and bunting. Pagan has great confidence and is very coachable.

While Pagan makes steady progress, his ratos are not acceptable as a lead off hitter. His stolen base success rate is 72.1%, 0.7 BB per 10 AB, and 1.7 K per AB. At one time, a stolen base success rate of 72% (44 of 61) was considered excellent, in the era of the big fly, a ratio at or above 75% is more appropriate. His BB-rate and K-rate need to be in the neighborhood of 1.2 for both if he is to be a quality lead off hitter.

Year

Team

AVG.

AB

Hits

HR

RBI

R

SB

BB

K

OBP

SLG

2002

St. Lucie

.308

26

8

0

2

6

2

2

2

.357

.462

2002

Cap City

.275

408

112

1

31

70

48

30

77

.323

.331

2001

Cap City

.298

57

17

0

5

4

3

6

5

.365

.351

2001

Brooklyn

.317

221

70

0

14

42

28

21

26

.401

.373

2000

Kingsport

.361

72

26

0

8

13

6

6

8

.410

.458


*Stats as of 08/10/02.

Batting and Power. Pagan is a much better hitter from the right side than the left. The Mets have Pagan working on slapping the ball on the ground or hitting line drive from the left side to take advantage of his speed. Pagan is already an accomplished bunter from both sides. As he physically matures, Pagan project to improve his power. While Pagan needs to draw more walks and make better contact, he did display better discipline at Brooklyn in 2001.

Base running and speed. Pagan has great speed and quickness. While he is very aggressive on the base paths, Pagan is not yet a real good base runner or base stealer. He has improved his success rate. Still, Pagan has more progress to make.

Defense. Angel Pagan plays a shallow centerfield and projects to be an outstanding defensive player with a good arm.

Projection. Starting centerfielder.

ETA: 2006. He may have cups of coffee in 2004 and 2005. He should be up to stay in 2006.

Centerfielders Team
Jeff Duncan A - St. Lucie Mets
Wayne Lydon A - Capital City Bombers
Darren Watts R - Kingsport Mets
Roberto Solano R - Kingsport Mets


COMMENTS


Despite the Mets trading Alex Escobar to the Indians and the tragic loss of Brian Cole, the center field positions seems to be in good hands. Pagan and Solano appear to have star potential. Duncan and Watts are at least solid prospects. Wayne Lydon is having a break through season. With the exception of Solano, the current CFs don't possess Escobar's or Cole's power.

1. Duncan who struggled mightily at Columbia in 2001 has arrived in 2002 with good seasons at both Columbia and St. Lucie. His stolen base success rate of 85% (20 of 23) is down a bit from 2001. He shows excellent plate discipline. He has drawn a combined 35 BB and having 37 K in a combined 190 AB. With his 19 extra-base hits including 5 HR, MLB won't just bust him with FB after FB. He's a polished defensive CF who bunts very well.

2. Angel Pagan remains very raw and -range prospects. Joey Cora has taken Pagan under his wing and Pagan has played for a team Cora is a part owner of and is the manager.

3. Wayne Lydon, who converted to a switch-hitter in 2001, has had an excellent season batting over .300 with an OBP of .386. He has successful stolen 64 bases in 70 attempts (91.4%). He needs to demonstrate that he can drive the ball.

4. Roberto Solano can run, hit, hit for power, play defense, and throw. He may one day challenge for the Mets best prospect. But, that's a few seasons away.

5. Derran Watts is a toolsy speedster who plays good defense and has gap power. Watts has the best arm among the CFs.

6. Jesus Gamera , a power hitting CF playing for Universidad de Carabobo (VSL), is another player to watch.



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