Final 2002 Scouting Report: OF, Jeff Duncan

The Mets selected Charles Jeffrey Duncan in the 7th round of the 2000 draft out of Arizona State University. Duncan started his collegiate career at Iowa State University before transferring. At Arizona State, he began to convert from being a slap hitter to driving the baseball. He was regarded as something of a project when he was drafted. Nonetheless, he was a reason for the Mets 2000 draft being ranked in the top 5 by BaseballAmerica.

Duncan has had his last 2 seasons curtailed by injuries. In 2001, he was hit be a pitch that fractured his arm, and in 2002 he walked into a bat during batting drills breaking his nose. Over the past 2 seasons, he has stolen 66 bases while being caught 8 times. Despite the lack of at bats due to injuries, Duncan is having a break out season in 2002. Reducing his strikeouts appears to be the most important cause of improve performance. Duncan's ratios are extraordinary: walk rate of 1.8 per 10 AB; and strikeout rate of 1.9 per 10 at bats; and stolen base success ratio of 90%. Duncan demonstrated his ability to drive the ball with 27 extra-base hits in only 252 at bats.

Year

Team

AVG.

AB

Hits

HR

RBI

R

SB

BB

K

OBP

SLG

2002

St. Lucie

.343

102

35

2

10

20

10

24

15

.472

.451

2002

Cap City

.393

150

59

4

17

33

15

18

34

.468

.600

2001

Cap City

.217

318

69

3

23

49

41

46

97

.329

.346


*Stats as of 10/01/02.

Batting and Power. As a leadoff hitter, Duncan is very advanced. He has good plate discipline, is a tough hitter with 2 strikes, can bunt, or slap at the pitch. He's learned to drive the baseball with gap power and is likely to hit 8-12 HR.

Base running and speed. Duncan has good, but not great speed. Nonetheless, he is an accomplished base runner and base stealer.

Defense. Duncan is a solid defensive CF who makes few mistakes. He has a solid arm.

Projection. Starting centerfielder.

ETA. Late 2004.

Centerfielders Team
Jeff Duncan A - St. Lucie Mets
Angel Pagan A - St. Lucie Mets
Wayne Lydon A - Capital City Bombers
Derran Watts A - Brooklyn Cyclones
Roberto Solano R - Kingsport Mets


COMMENTS


With Duncan and Lydon having break through seasons, the Mets are strong at the CF position. Pagan, Solano and Watts have the highest ceilings among the CF prospects. Jon Slack and William Garcia are also in the CF mix.

1. Duncan, who struggled mightily at Columbia in 2001, arrived in 2002. He projects to be a very good leadoff hitter.

2. Angel Pagan remains very raw and -range prospects. Joey Cora has taken Pagan under his wing and Pagan has played for a team Cora is a part owner of and is the manager.

3. Wayne Lydon, who converted to a switch-hitter in 2001, has had an excellent season batting over .300 with an OBP of .386. He has successful stolen 64 bases in 70 attempts (91.4%). He needs to demonstrate that he can drive the ball.

4. Roberto Solano can run, hit, hit for power, play defense, and throw. He may one day challenge for the Mets best prospect. But, that's a few seasons away.

5. Derran Watts is a toolsy speedster who plays good defense and has gap power. Watts has the best arm among the CFs.

6. Jesus Gamera , a power hitting CF playing for Universidad de Carabobo (VSL), is another player to watch.



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