Mets Prospect Over/Unders – Part I

Inside Pitch continues its predictions, this time focusing on individual benchmarks we believe players will surpass or fall short from clinching this season. Though numbers do not dictate everything for minor leaguers, these marks do signify steps in their improvement as another year approaches. How many wins for Jonathon Niese? How many homers will Mike Carp hit? Check inside for those answers.

Over / Unders:


Home Run Total for Nick Evans – 18: The first baseman's power has been on an upswing over the last two seasons. In 2007, he tied his career high from 2006 with 15 home runs despite appearing in 34 less games. His more consistent approach at the plate, evident by his vastly improved batting average and decrease in strikeouts, should lend itself to even more power. Therefore, as long as Evans remains healthy we will go with OVER

Amount of Wins for Jonathon Niese – 11: Niese has won 11 games over each of the last two seasons, and though he was knocked around at times during the 2007 season, his repertoire strengthened which should set the stage for an excellent year where he will be looked upon to lead the Binghamton staff. Though he is now ranked as the leading pitcher in the organization, he should be able to pitch with less pressure which should help him pitch comfortably in front of a lineup that should put runs on the board for him. He recorded ten no-decisions last season, and we think that numbers will lessen this upcoming year and allow him to eclipse 11 wins for the first time. OVER

Batting Average for Francisco Pena - .250: The young catcher was put right into the fire in his first professional season, appearing in 103 games for a long-season squad when many of his peers were fighting for playing time in the Gulf Coast League. Pena showed nascent power during his stay with Savannah as he hit five home runs, but struck out in twenty percent of his at-bats and recorded just 24 walks. Making more consistent contact will a significant area of focus for him in 2008, but we predict it will be one more season before he climbs above the .250 mark. UNDER:

Stolen Bases for Hector Pellot – 35: That is the exact number Pellot swiped in 2007 as made huge offensive strides after hitting .189 in 2006. We expected Pellot production to keep growing which will put him on base more often and thus giving him the chance to steal more bags. But, it will not only be his offense that will help him surpass 35 steals, but he we expect improvement in his success ratio after being thrown out 18 times in 53 attempts last season. With a constant green light and better technique, anticipate Pellot to slide right past last year's mark. OVER

Number of Levels for Tobi Stoner – 1.5: Stoner received a planned promotion during the 2007 as he made a little more than half of his starts in St. Lucie after starting the year in Savannah. He is 23 years old and possesses the most polished repertoire in the organization which should have him looking at another promotion if he can get off to a strong start in his first trip to Double-A. It is because of his age and depth of his repertoire that we believe he will make it up to New Orleans some time during the summer. OVER

Number of Walks for Eric Brown – 40: Brown's long term projection has always been a bit cloudier than his peers, and while he had a successful season with St. Lucie in 2007 he will still hit around too often. His changeup came a long way but he found himself pitching into rallies because he lacked true swing and miss stuff. However, one area coaches can rely on Brown to keep in check is his walk total. He issues just 30 free passes in 143.2 innings pitched last year, and 28 walks in 133 innings pitched in 2006. Though he will rise to Binghamton this season, we believe he will still demonstrate his great control and keep his walks around his career average. UNDER

Home Run Total for Mike Carp – 19: 2007 was a down year for the former Sterling Award winning fir baseman not only in batting average but in home runs as well. He dipped from 17 home runs to 11 dingers year over year, but he will return to full health this upcoming season so we made his career high of 19 home runs [set in 2005 with Hagerstown] as a benchmark to predict against. Carp will be tested further this season as he should hold the starting job in New Orleans, but though we believe he will rebound from a disappointing 2007, we do not see him surpassing his career high.UNDER

Total Saves for Eddie Kunz – 20: Kunz's rookie season did not go as hoped for a top overall draft pick, but after pitching so many innings before he even reported to Brooklyn [and later the Arizona Fall League] which may have played a large role in his command and effectiveness. That should change this year when he will have a winter of professional conditioning and his first spring training under his belt. Expectations are that Kunz will move fast in the system and we predict he will be the everyday closer for Binghamton this year, where he should get plenty of opportunities to register saves for a greatly improved B-Mets club in 2008. OVER

ERA for Dylan Owen – 3.50: Statistically, the right-hander was the top pitcher in the NY-Penn League last season where his 1.49 ERA in 72.1 innings pitched certainly caught the eye of anyone observing his performance during his rookie season. This season, Owen figures to hold a spot in the St. Lucie rotation where mirroring last season's performance will undoubtedly be difficult. Nonetheless, with a strong repertoire and better command, we believe his ERA will inflate but he will still achieve enough success to keep his ERA below that mark. UNDER


Amazin Clubhouse Top Stories

\r\n \r\n\r\nOver / Unders:
\r\n
\r\n
\r\nHome Run Total for Nick Evans – 18: The first baseman's power has been on an upswing over the last two seasons. In 2007, he tied his career high from 2006 with 15 home runs despite appearing in 34 less games. His more consistent approach at the plate, evident by his vastly improved batting average and decrease in strikeouts, should lend itself to even more power. Therefore, as long as Evans remains healthy we will go with OVER
\r\n
\r\nAmount of Wins for Jonathon Niese – 11: Niese has won 11 games over each of the last two seasons, and though he was knocked around at times during the 2007 season, his repertoire strengthened which should set the stage for an excellent year where he will be looked upon to lead the Binghamton staff. Though he is now ranked as the leading pitcher in the organization, he should be able to pitch with less pressure which should help him pitch comfortably in front of a lineup that should put runs on the board for him. He recorded ten no-decisions last season, and we think that numbers will lessen this upcoming year and allow him to eclipse 11 wins for the first time. OVER
\r\n
\r\nBatting Average for Francisco Pena - .250: The young catcher was put right into the fire in his first professional season, appearing in 103 games for a long-season squad when many of his peers were fighting for playing time in the Gulf Coast League. Pena showed nascent power during his stay with Savannah as he hit five home runs, but struck out in twenty percent of his at-bats and recorded just 24 walks. Making more consistent contact will a significant area of focus for him in 2008, but we predict it will be one more season before he climbs above the .250 mark. UNDER:
\r\n
\r\nStolen Bases for Hector Pellot – 35: That is the exact number Pellot swiped in 2007 as made huge offensive strides after hitting .189 in 2006. We expected Pellot production to keep growing which will put him on base more often and thus giving him the chance to steal more bags. But, it will not only be his offense that will help him surpass 35 steals, but he we expect improvement in his success ratio after being thrown out 18 times in 53 attempts last season. With a constant green light and better technique, anticipate Pellot to slide right past last year's mark. OVER
\r\n
\r\nNumber of Levels for Tobi Stoner – 1.5: Stoner received a planned promotion during the 2007 as he made a little more than half of his starts in St. Lucie after starting the year in Savannah. He is 23 years old and possesses the most polished repertoire in the organization which should have him looking at another promotion if he can get off to a strong start in his first trip to Double-A. It is because of his age and depth of his repertoire that we believe he will make it up to New Orleans some time during the summer. OVER
\r\n
\r\nNumber of Walks for Eric Brown – 40: Brown's long term projection has always been a bit cloudier than his peers, and while he had a successful season with St. Lucie in 2007 he will still hit around too often. His changeup came a long way but he found himself pitching into rallies because he lacked true swing and miss stuff. However, one area coaches can rely on Brown to keep in check is his walk total. He issues just 30 free passes in 143.2 innings pitched last year, and 28 walks in 133 innings pitched in 2006. Though he will rise to Binghamton this season, we believe he will still demonstrate his great control and keep his walks around his career average. UNDER
\r\n
\r\nHome Run Total for Mike Carp – 19: 2007 was a down year for the former Sterling Award winning fir baseman not only in batting average but in home runs as well. He dipped from 17 home runs to 11 dingers year over year, but he will return to full health this upcoming season so we made his career high of 19 home runs [set in 2005 with Hagerstown] as a benchmark to predict against. Carp will be tested further this season as he should hold the starting job in New Orleans, but though we believe he will rebound from a disappointing 2007, we do not see him surpassing his career high.UNDER
\r\n
\r\nTotal Saves for Eddie Kunz – 20: Kunz's rookie season did not go as hoped for a top overall draft pick, but after pitching so many innings before he even reported to Brooklyn [and later the Arizona Fall League] which may have played a large role in his command and effectiveness. That should change this year when he will have a winter of professional conditioning and his first spring training under his belt. Expectations are that Kunz will move fast in the system and we predict he will be the everyday closer for Binghamton this year, where he should get plenty of opportunities to register saves for a greatly improved B-Mets club in 2008. OVER
\r\n
\r\nERA for Dylan Owen – 3.50: Statistically, the right-hander was the top pitcher in the NY-Penn League last season where his 1.49 ERA in 72.1 innings pitched certainly caught the eye of anyone observing his performance during his rookie season. This season, Owen figures to hold a spot in the St. Lucie rotation where mirroring last season's performance will undoubtedly be difficult. Nonetheless, with a strong repertoire and better command, we believe his ERA will inflate but he will still achieve enough success to keep his ERA below that mark. UNDER
\r\n
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