Prospect Predictions for 2009 – Part I

With the kickoff of open minor league camp growing closer with each day, InsidePitchMagazine.com offers its predictions of who will finish atop certain statistical categories for position players and pitchers. We ask—Who will lead in wins? Who will lead in ERA? Who will hit the most home runs? Look inside for the answers…and more.

For Starting Pitchers

Most Wins: Scott ShawDylan Owen's 12 victories led the system in 2008 and while he should notch double-digit wins for the second consecutive season, Shaw's presence at the front of what is shaping up to be a formidable St. Lucie staff and potent lineup behind him should propel the right-hander to the top of the list. Brad Holt may be the juicer pick, but a potential move up to Binghamton and a repertoire that is not quite as deep as Shaw's—despite Holt's high projections—make Shaw the pick. He too may receive a move up to Double-A later in the year, but like Owen in 2008, he has the breaking pitches that should keep him ahead of Florida State League hitters.

Most Strikeouts: Brad Holt – Holt's 96 strikeouts in 72 1/3 innings with Brooklyn last season tied him for eighth in the system with Nick Carr. Now with the expectation of doubling his innings in 2008, he should be able to significantly increase that number and challenge the arms that finished ahead of him last season.

Michael Antonini [126 K in ‘08], Dylan Owen [131 K], Dillon Gee [114 K] will be returning to higher levels where strikeouts were tougher to come by while Jonathon Niese, the 2008 strikeout leader [144], and Bobby Parnell [114] should see enough big league service time to decrease their chances. At a predicted 140-plus innings, Holt's strikeout ratio should hold firm with 150 punchouts safely in his target range.

Best Walks Per Nine Innings: Dillon Gee – Gee has been a leader in this category throughout his young tenure in the system and that pattern will not likely change. His 1.3 walks per nine innings during his first two seasons leads the system by half a walk per nine innings over Eric Brown. Greater pitchability, confidence in and command of all his pitches, and a natural feel for the strike zone should allow Gee to reign atop this category for another season.

Lowest ERA: Dillon Gee – Last season, nine full-time starters finished with an ERA between 1.87 [Holt] and 3.14 [Salvador Aguilar]. That kind of production may prove very difficult to duplicate as promotions for the new season are handed out, but the safe pick is to go with the pitcher with the best command and that is Gee. Coming off a season in which he posted a 2.92 ERA in 25 starts, his maturation over the winter should give him the tools to remain around the 3.00 mark.

For Relievers

Most Saves: Eddie Kunz – The 2007 first round pick's 27 saves with Binghamton last season far and away led the organization as his runner-up, Nate Field, finished with 13 saves. Given the lack of true closers in the organization, it should not be too difficult for Kunz to repeat the task of 20-plus saves as he likely heads to Buffalo. Stephen Clyne should contend with Kunz but his role as closer is not as clearly defined and early struggles could take him out of the role as it did in 2008.

Lowest ERA: Josh Stinson – Disregarding an innings minimum, James Fuller led the system in ERA with his 1.00 mark in 18 innings followed by fellow rookie left-hander Jimmy Johnson who posted a 1.25 ERA in 36 innings pitched with Brooklyn. Lack of velocity and a viable secondary pitches for both will make it difficult to repeat such performances as they presumably move out of the pitcher-friendly New York-Penn League.

Stinson is new to the bullpen but his rising confidence and experience in the system afford him a smooth and effective transition to relieving full time. Eddie Kunz is another safe bet for this category.

Most Strikeouts Per Nine Innings: Wendy Rosa – Rosa's name may not have fallen on may ears last season [11 IP with Savannah, 31 1/3 IP with Brooklyn], but he ran way with this category as he struck out nearly 14 batters per nine innings, three ahead of Junior Guerra. Guerra is staring down a 50-game suspension to begin the season, but that should still leave him enough time to contend in this category upon his return. However, Rosa's consistency and improvements as a strikeout pitcher, and margin from the pack last season, leads us to peg him as the leader for 2009.

For Position Players

Highest Batting Average: Shawn Bowman – Good hitters for average are not a strong point in the organization and the pool is now shallower with the graduation or trading away of last year's leading candidates (Daniel Murphy, Nick Evans, Mike Carp). Wilmer Flores figures to be the most common pick, but his ascension to the long season leagues as a 17-year-old will come with its challenges. On the other hand, our pick has an understanding of hitting at the higher levels and, with health, will return a more disciplined and capable hitter who should push beyond the .300 mark. We expect Flores to finish close, but we remain aggressive in our belief in Bowman's ability.

Most Home Runs: Lucas Duda – Again, Flores may be the common pick but we hesitate given the learning curve he will undoubtedly experience. As for Duda, he boasts some of the best raw power in the system and the move out of the larger parks of the Florida State League to the more hitter-friendly Eastern League should translate into greater power production.

His batting average dipped in the second half of the 2008 season, but his power always remained a constant. Given his sharp eye and quickness on the inner-half, Duda is a logical pick to lead the system in long balls. Fernando Martinez is another choice for this category yet we anticipate him seeing a fair amount of time in New York this season, cutting down his chances to hit the most home runs.

Highest On-Base Percentage: Josh Thole – In 2008, Thole finished second behind Mike Carp [.403] among all long-season prospects in this department with his .382 mark while hitting .300 for the first time his career. As he moves into the starting role for the first time in his career at his highest level yet, it will be a challenge for Thole to eclipse .300 again. But his patience has always remained steady and should continue on his way to leading the farm in OBP.

Most Stolen Bases: Greg Veloz – The second baseman's 29 steals beat out the recently traded Ezequiel Carrera by one to lead the organization. Veloz, the 2008 Sterling Award winner in Savannah, figures to hit lead off in a much deeper St. Lucie lineup this season, and combined with his stronger on-base skills, he should have plenty of changes to break 30 steals and push towards 40 on his way to once again leading the farm.


Amazin Clubhouse Top Stories

\r\n \r\n\r\nFor Starting Pitchers
\r\n
\r\nMost Wins: Scott ShawDylan Owen's 12 victories led the system in 2008 and while he should notch double-digit wins for the second consecutive season, Shaw's presence at the front of what is shaping up to be a formidable St. Lucie staff and potent lineup behind him should propel the right-hander to the top of the list. Brad Holt may be the juicer pick, but a potential move up to Binghamton and a repertoire that is not quite as deep as Shaw's—despite Holt's high projections—make Shaw the pick. He too may receive a move up to Double-A later in the year, but like Owen in 2008, he has the breaking pitches that should keep him ahead of Florida State League hitters.
\r\n
\r\nMost Strikeouts: Brad Holt – Holt's 96 strikeouts in 72 1/3 innings with Brooklyn last season tied him for eighth in the system with Nick Carr. Now with the expectation of doubling his innings in 2008, he should be able to significantly increase that number and challenge the arms that finished ahead of him last season.
\r\n
\r\nMichael Antonini [126 K in ‘08], Dylan Owen [131 K], Dillon Gee [114 K] will be returning to higher levels where strikeouts were tougher to come by while Jonathon Niese, the 2008 strikeout leader [144], and Bobby Parnell [114] should see enough big league service time to decrease their chances. At a predicted 140-plus innings, Holt's strikeout ratio should hold firm with 150 punchouts safely in his target range.
\r\n
\r\nBest Walks Per Nine Innings: Dillon Gee – Gee has been a leader in this category throughout his young tenure in the system and that pattern will not likely change. His 1.3 walks per nine innings during his first two seasons leads the system by half a walk per nine innings over Eric Brown. Greater pitchability, confidence in and command of all his pitches, and a natural feel for the strike zone should allow Gee to reign atop this category for another season.
\r\n
\r\nLowest ERA: Dillon Gee – Last season, nine full-time starters finished with an ERA between 1.87 [Holt] and 3.14 [Salvador Aguilar]. That kind of production may prove very difficult to duplicate as promotions for the new season are handed out, but the safe pick is to go with the pitcher with the best command and that is Gee. Coming off a season in which he posted a 2.92 ERA in 25 starts, his maturation over the winter should give him the tools to remain around the 3.00 mark.
\r\n
\r\nFor Relievers
\r\n
\r\nMost Saves: Eddie Kunz – The 2007 first round pick's 27 saves with Binghamton last season far and away led the organization as his runner-up, Nate Field, finished with 13 saves. Given the lack of true closers in the organization, it should not be too difficult for Kunz to repeat the task of 20-plus saves as he likely heads to Buffalo. Stephen Clyne should contend with Kunz but his role as closer is not as clearly defined and early struggles could take him out of the role as it did in 2008.
\r\n
\r\nLowest ERA: Josh Stinson – Disregarding an innings minimum, James Fuller led the system in ERA with his 1.00 mark in 18 innings followed by fellow rookie left-hander Jimmy Johnson who posted a 1.25 ERA in 36 innings pitched with Brooklyn. Lack of velocity and a viable secondary pitches for both will make it difficult to repeat such performances as they presumably move out of the pitcher-friendly New York-Penn League.
\r\n
\r\nStinson is new to the bullpen but his rising confidence and experience in the system afford him a smooth and effective transition to relieving full time. Eddie Kunz is another safe bet for this category.
\r\n
\r\nMost Strikeouts Per Nine Innings: Wendy Rosa – Rosa's name may not have fallen on may ears last season [11 IP with Savannah, 31 1/3 IP with Brooklyn], but he ran way with this category as he struck out nearly 14 batters per nine innings, three ahead of Junior Guerra. Guerra is staring down a 50-game suspension to begin the season, but that should still leave him enough time to contend in this category upon his return. However, Rosa's consistency and improvements as a strikeout pitcher, and margin from the pack last season, leads us to peg him as the leader for 2009.
\r\n
\r\nFor Position Players
\r\n
\r\nHighest Batting Average: Shawn Bowman – Good hitters for average are not a strong point in the organization and the pool is now shallower with the graduation or trading away of last year's leading candidates (Daniel Murphy, Nick Evans, Mike Carp). Wilmer Flores figures to be the most common pick, but his ascension to the long season leagues as a 17-year-old will come with its challenges. On the other hand, our pick has an understanding of hitting at the higher levels and, with health, will return a more disciplined and capable hitter who should push beyond the .300 mark. We expect Flores to finish close, but we remain aggressive in our belief in Bowman's ability.
\r\n
\r\nMost Home Runs: Lucas Duda – Again, Flores may be the common pick but we hesitate given the learning curve he will undoubtedly experience. As for Duda, he boasts some of the best raw power in the system and the move out of the larger parks of the Florida State League to the more hitter-friendly Eastern League should translate into greater power production.
\r\n
\r\nHis batting average dipped in the second half of the 2008 season, but his power always remained a constant. Given his sharp eye and quickness on the inner-half, Duda is a logical pick to lead the system in long balls. Fernando Martinez is another choice for this category yet we anticipate him seeing a fair amount of time in New York this season, cutting down his chances to hit the most home runs.
\r\n
\r\nHighest On-Base Percentage: Josh Thole – In 2008, Thole finished second behind Mike Carp [.403] among all long-season prospects in this department with his .382 mark while hitting .300 for the first time his career. As he moves into the starting role for the first time in his career at his highest level yet, it will be a challenge for Thole to eclipse .300 again. But his patience has always remained steady and should continue on his way to leading the farm in OBP.
\r\n
\r\nMost Stolen Bases: Greg Veloz – The second baseman's 29 steals beat out the recently traded Ezequiel Carrera by one to lead the organization. Veloz, the 2008 Sterling Award winner in Savannah, figures to hit lead off in a much deeper St. Lucie lineup this season, and combined with his stronger on-base skills, he should have plenty of changes to break 30 steals and push towards 40 on his way to once again leading the farm.
\r\n
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