MMLN – 2009 Predictions: A Look Back - Part I

In this first installment, Inside Pitch looks back at its preseason predictions for individual prospects. Part One offers a look back at who was predicted to lead statistical categories for pitchers, relievers and position players. Look inside to see how the predictions held up.

For Starting Pitchers
Most Wins

Preseason Prediction: Scott Shaw
Acutal: Jeurys Familia & Chris Schwinden – 10

Coming off his six wins in Brooklyn in 2008, Shaw figured to be put in a position of success with St. Lucie this season. Despite his inconsistencies, the right-hander did end up leading the St. Lucie staff with eight wins, but it was could not stack up against Familia's and Schwinden's ten wins which led the organization. Familia would have had the opportunity to add to his total but was shut down on August 30 after reaching his innings limit for the season.

Schwinden's name flew under the radar in comparison to others in the Savannah rotation, but he matched Familia by earning a victory in St. Lucie in his final start of the season following nine victories in Savannah through mid-August. Contenders with nine victories in 2009 included Kyle Allen, Brooklyn's Mark Cohoon who went 9-2 , and Tobi Stoner whose 4-0 mark in his final five starts in Buffalo helped him reach nine wins on the year.

Most Strikeouts

Preseason Prediction: Brad Holt
Actual: Eric Niesen - 134

Holt finished with 99 strikeouts in 101 1/3 innings this season (54 in St. Lucie, 45 in Binghamton), well below his K/IP ratio from last season, but was on pace in St. Lucie before he ran into adversity following his promotion to Binghamton. The lack of consistency in his secondary pitches and downward movement on his fastball while with Binghamton were the main culprits for a drop in strikeouts.

Conversely, Niesen, whose 134 strikeouts led the organization, saw his strikeout ratio go up after his promotion to Binghamton and posted a far better ratio than 2008 when he fanned 77 in 118 1/3 innings. The wicked movement he generated on his slider while with Binghamton directly aided in the spike in strikeouts.

Savannah's Eric Beaulac nipped on Niesen's heels and fell just one strikeout shy of tying Niesen as he totaled 133 punchouts in 2009.

Best Walks Per Nine Innings [Minimum 70 IP]

Preseason Prediction: Dillon Gee
Actual: Chris Schwinden – 1.28

Another mark of Schwinden's fine season was his exceptional BB/ 9 IP ratio. The right-hander walked just 18 in 126 2/3 innings this season, coming off a 2008 debut in which he walked 12 in 62 2/3 innings. Do the math and Schwinden has walked only 30 batters in his first 189 1/3 professional innings. That mark does Gee justice as he walked only 33 batters in his first 216 1/3 innings before his injury-shortened season of 2009. Though Gee is known for his exception control, he would not have competed with Schwinden as he walked 16 in is 48 1/3 innings in 2009.

Brooklyn's Mark Cohoon and Brandon Moore were the only other two starters to exceed 70 innings this season and keep their ratios below 2.00 (Moore – 1.86BB/9 IP, Cohoon – 1.95 BB/9IP).

Lowest ERA [Minimum 50 IP]

Preseason Prediction: Dillon Gee
Actual: Brandon Moore – 2.09

Once again Gee was given the preseason nod as the expectation back in March was that the right-hander would begin the season in Binghamton, where he finished 2008. However, Gee went straight to Triple-A where he posted a 4.10 ERA before being shut down in late May.

Yet for the second straight season it was a Brooklyn pitcher who took home the distinction of having the lowest ERA as Moore allowed 19 earned runs in 82 innings pitched this summer, including a 1.42 ERA over his last five starts (5 ER in 31 2/3 IP).

Others who approach Moore include: Cohoon (2.15), Nelson Figueroa (2.25), Chris Hilliard (2.36), Jeff Kaplan (2.45)

For Relivers

Most Saves
Preseason Prediction: Eddie Kunz
Actual: Rhiner Cruz – 22

The expectation that Kunz would hold down the Buffalo closer never came to fruition after registering 27 saves with Binghamton in 2008. Kunz recorded just one save this season—back in June—as the organization has moved him to a middle relief role. But the lack of saves was not Kunz's only shortcoming as the 2007 top pick's struggles were well-documented including an unsightly 5.02 ERA.

Instead it was the Sand Gnats' Cruz, 22, who led the organization in saves, one year after tossing 40 innings of middle relief in 2008 (30 1/3 in Savannah). Cruz recorded the final out 37 times for Savannah and blew five saves on the season.

Lowest ERA [Minimum 20 IP]

Preseason Prediction: Josh Stinson
Actual: Rhiner Cruz – 1.92

Not only did Cruz lead the system in saves, but led all relievers in ERA who exceeded 20 innings pitched. The right-hander's best stretch came in July when he allowed just one earned run in 10 2/3 innings pitched. His ERA was a far cry from 2008 when he finished with a 4.73 ERA.

Stinson, nonetheless, proved capable of adapting to his new full-time relief role. In 25 games with St. Lucie, he posted a 1.98 ERA, but his 3.61 ERA in 25 games with Savannah before the promotion caused him to end 2009 with a 2.86 cumulative ERA.

Most Strikeouts Per Nine Innings [Minimum 20 IP]

Preseason Prediction: Wendy Rosa
Actual: Adam Bostick – 10.1 K/9 IP

Rosa turned out to be a poor selection as the right-hander barely made it into May before he was released, but led the organization last season with slightly more than 14 strikeouts per nine innings. This season, Adam Bostick took over as the organizational leader as he struck out 63 in 56 innings. It is one distinction on the left-hander's 2009 body of work that could put him in a position as a lefty specialist for the Mets in the future.

For Position Players

Highest Batting Average [Minimum 150 AB]

Preseason Prediction: Shawn Bowman
Actual: Pedro Zapata - .329 (Short-Season), Josh Thole - .328 (Long-Season)

When considering this category, many thoughts would go straight to Josh Thole and his .328 average, but looking down the organization list you will see the Kingsport outfielder who registered a .329 mark in 152 at-bats. Zapata, a third-year outfielder, hit .221 in 58 games with Kingsport in 2008.

As for Bowman, the B-Mets third baseman finished the season with a .294 mark. He was the preseason selection due to his trend of going the other way with greater consistency that began last season and continued this year.

Most Home Runs

Preseason Prediction: Lucas Duda
Actual: Ike Davis – 20

The expectation was that Duda would finally find his power stroke with Binghamton this season by getting more elevation as he drove the ball, but as mentioned in the B-Mets review, that never materialized. However, very few into the season could have predicted Davis would end up leading the organization in homers following his 2008 drought in Brooklyn. Davis was middle of the pack through much of the season but erupted for ten home runs in 34 games down the stretch to size the home run crown.

Davis' former teammates sure gave him a race for number one and those included Brahiam Maldonado (18 – led FSL), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (17), Carlos Guzman (17) and Sean Ratliff (15).

Highest On-Base Percentage [Minimum 150 AB]

Preseason Prediction: Josh Thole
Actual: Josh Thole - .395 (Long-Season), Joseph Bonfe - .416 (Short-Season)

Again the distinction between the two seasons was made, but when it came to the full-season rosters, we were right on the money. Thole's mark finished for third best in the Eastern League. His best monthly mark came in April when he reached base nearly 46 percent of the time (.457)

Bonfe, the 21st round pick in 2009, finished atop the short-season leaderboard thanks to a strong effort in Kingsport in which he hit .327 and finished with a .426 on-base percentage. His final tally was lowered by ten points overall after a 1-for-11 showing in six games in Brooklyn before arriving with the K-Mets.

Most Stolen Bases

Preseason Prediction Greg Veloz
Actual: Ruben Tejada & Emmanuel Garcia – 19

Veloz, who led the organization with 29 steals in 2008, swiped 18 bags and was on his way to the organizational best before he was traded away in early August. Instead, it was the Binghamton duo that racked up the most stolen bases. For Tejada, the 19 steals was an increase of 11 over 2008, his yearly total increased by two.


Amazin Clubhouse Top Stories

\r\n \r\n\r\nFor Starting Pitchers\r\n
\r\nMost Wins
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Scott Shaw
\r\nAcutal: Jeurys Familia & Chris Schwinden – 10
\r\n
\r\nComing off his six wins in Brooklyn in 2008, Shaw figured to be put in a position of success with St. Lucie this season. Despite his inconsistencies, the right-hander did end up leading the St. Lucie staff with eight wins, but it was could not stack up against Familia's and Schwinden's ten wins which led the organization. Familia would have had the opportunity to add to his total but was shut down on August 30 after reaching his innings limit for the season.
\r\n
\r\nSchwinden's name flew under the radar in comparison to others in the Savannah rotation, but he matched Familia by earning a victory in St. Lucie in his final start of the season following nine victories in Savannah through mid-August. Contenders with nine victories in 2009 included Kyle Allen, Brooklyn's Mark Cohoon who went 9-2 , and Tobi Stoner whose 4-0 mark in his final five starts in Buffalo helped him reach nine wins on the year.
\r\n
\r\nMost Strikeouts
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Brad Holt
\r\nActual: Eric Niesen - 134
\r\n
\r\nHolt finished with 99 strikeouts in 101 1/3 innings this season (54 in St. Lucie, 45 in Binghamton), well below his K/IP ratio from last season, but was on pace in St. Lucie before he ran into adversity following his promotion to Binghamton. The lack of consistency in his secondary pitches and downward movement on his fastball while with Binghamton were the main culprits for a drop in strikeouts.
\r\n
\r\nConversely, Niesen, whose 134 strikeouts led the organization, saw his strikeout ratio go up after his promotion to Binghamton and posted a far better ratio than 2008 when he fanned 77 in 118 1/3 innings. The wicked movement he generated on his slider while with Binghamton directly aided in the spike in strikeouts.
\r\n
\r\nSavannah's Eric Beaulac nipped on Niesen's heels and fell just one strikeout shy of tying Niesen as he totaled 133 punchouts in 2009.
\r\n
\r\nBest Walks Per Nine Innings [Minimum 70 IP]
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Dillon Gee
\r\nActual: Chris Schwinden – 1.28
\r\n
\r\nAnother mark of Schwinden's fine season was his exceptional BB/ 9 IP ratio. The right-hander walked just 18 in 126 2/3 innings this season, coming off a 2008 debut in which he walked 12 in 62 2/3 innings. Do the math and Schwinden has walked only 30 batters in his first 189 1/3 professional innings. That mark does Gee justice as he walked only 33 batters in his first 216 1/3 innings before his injury-shortened season of 2009. Though Gee is known for his exception control, he would not have competed with Schwinden as he walked 16 in is 48 1/3 innings in 2009.
\r\n
\r\nBrooklyn's Mark Cohoon and Brandon Moore were the only other two starters to exceed 70 innings this season and keep their ratios below 2.00 (Moore – 1.86BB/9 IP, Cohoon – 1.95 BB/9IP).
\r\n
\r\nLowest ERA [Minimum 50 IP]
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Dillon Gee
\r\nActual: Brandon Moore – 2.09
\r\n
\r\nOnce again Gee was given the preseason nod as the expectation back in March was that the right-hander would begin the season in Binghamton, where he finished 2008. However, Gee went straight to Triple-A where he posted a 4.10 ERA before being shut down in late May.
\r\n
\r\nYet for the second straight season it was a Brooklyn pitcher who took home the distinction of having the lowest ERA as Moore allowed 19 earned runs in 82 innings pitched this summer, including a 1.42 ERA over his last five starts (5 ER in 31 2/3 IP).
\r\n
\r\nOthers who approach Moore include: Cohoon (2.15), Nelson Figueroa (2.25), Chris Hilliard (2.36), Jeff Kaplan (2.45)
\r\n
\r\nFor Relivers
\r\n
\r\nMost Saves\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Eddie Kunz
\r\nActual: Rhiner Cruz – 22
\r\n
\r\nThe expectation that Kunz would hold down the Buffalo closer never came to fruition after registering 27 saves with Binghamton in 2008. Kunz recorded just one save this season—back in June—as the organization has moved him to a middle relief role. But the lack of saves was not Kunz's only shortcoming as the 2007 top pick's struggles were well-documented including an unsightly 5.02 ERA.
\r\n
\r\nInstead it was the Sand Gnats' Cruz, 22, who led the organization in saves, one year after tossing 40 innings of middle relief in 2008 (30 1/3 in Savannah). Cruz recorded the final out 37 times for Savannah and blew five saves on the season.
\r\n
\r\nLowest ERA [Minimum 20 IP]
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Josh Stinson
\r\nActual: Rhiner Cruz – 1.92
\r\n
\r\nNot only did Cruz lead the system in saves, but led all relievers in ERA who exceeded 20 innings pitched. The right-hander's best stretch came in July when he allowed just one earned run in 10 2/3 innings pitched. His ERA was a far cry from 2008 when he finished with a 4.73 ERA.
\r\n
\r\nStinson, nonetheless, proved capable of adapting to his new full-time relief role. In 25 games with St. Lucie, he posted a 1.98 ERA, but his 3.61 ERA in 25 games with Savannah before the promotion caused him to end 2009 with a 2.86 cumulative ERA.
\r\n
\r\nMost Strikeouts Per Nine Innings [Minimum 20 IP]
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Wendy Rosa
\r\nActual: Adam Bostick – 10.1 K/9 IP
\r\n
\r\nRosa turned out to be a poor selection as the right-hander barely made it into May before he was released, but led the organization last season with slightly more than 14 strikeouts per nine innings. This season, Adam Bostick took over as the organizational leader as he struck out 63 in 56 innings. It is one distinction on the left-hander's 2009 body of work that could put him in a position as a lefty specialist for the Mets in the future.
\r\n
\r\nFor Position Players
\r\n
\r\nHighest Batting Average [Minimum 150 AB]
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Shawn Bowman
\r\nActual: Pedro Zapata - .329 (Short-Season), Josh Thole - .328 (Long-Season)
\r\n
\r\nWhen considering this category, many thoughts would go straight to Josh Thole and his .328 average, but looking down the organization list you will see the Kingsport outfielder who registered a .329 mark in 152 at-bats. Zapata, a third-year outfielder, hit .221 in 58 games with Kingsport in 2008.
\r\n
\r\nAs for Bowman, the B-Mets third baseman finished the season with a .294 mark. He was the preseason selection due to his trend of going the other way with greater consistency that began last season and continued this year.
\r\n
\r\nMost Home Runs
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Lucas Duda
\r\nActual: Ike Davis – 20
\r\n
\r\nThe expectation was that Duda would finally find his power stroke with Binghamton this season by getting more elevation as he drove the ball, but as mentioned in the B-Mets review, that never materialized. However, very few into the season could have predicted Davis would end up leading the organization in homers following his 2008 drought in Brooklyn. Davis was middle of the pack through much of the season but erupted for ten home runs in 34 games down the stretch to size the home run crown.
\r\n
\r\nDavis' former teammates sure gave him a race for number one and those included Brahiam Maldonado (18 – led FSL), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (17), Carlos Guzman (17) and Sean Ratliff (15).
\r\n
\r\nHighest On-Base Percentage [Minimum 150 AB]
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Josh Thole
\r\nActual: Josh Thole - .395 (Long-Season), Joseph Bonfe - .416 (Short-Season)
\r\n
\r\nAgain the distinction between the two seasons was made, but when it came to the full-season rosters, we were right on the money. Thole's mark finished for third best in the Eastern League. His best monthly mark came in April when he reached base nearly 46 percent of the time (.457)
\r\n
\r\nBonfe, the 21st round pick in 2009, finished atop the short-season leaderboard thanks to a strong effort in Kingsport in which he hit .327 and finished with a .426 on-base percentage. His final tally was lowered by ten points overall after a 1-for-11 showing in six games in Brooklyn before arriving with the K-Mets.
\r\n
\r\nMost Stolen Bases
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction Greg Veloz
\r\nActual: Ruben Tejada & Emmanuel Garcia – 19
\r\n
\r\nVeloz, who led the organization with 29 steals in 2008, swiped 18 bags and was on his way to the organizational best before he was traded away in early August. Instead, it was the Binghamton duo that racked up the most stolen bases. For Tejada, the 19 steals was an increase of 11 over 2008, his yearly total increased by two.
\r\n
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