MMLN – Over/Unders: A Look Back – Part II

In the final part of InsidePitchMagazine.com's look back at its preseason predictions, ten more prospects individual benchmarks are reviewed. Did Brad Holt exceed his strikeout prediction? Did Wilmer Flores go over or under his projected batting average? How did Ike Davis stack up against his home run prediction? Find out the answers to those questions and more.

Strikeout Total for Brad Holt

Preseason Prediction: Over/Under – 125 OVER
Actual: 99

Given his strikeout ratio while in St. Lucie, Holt was well on his way to going over 125 strikeouts, but upon his promotion to Binghamton, the right-hander lost his way with his mechanics and thus the explosion on his fastball and the drop on his changeup. The result was a drastic drop in strikeout including just eight punchouts in his last 17 innings. However, despite the decrease, Holt would have been close to the target had he not been shutdown after August with just 101 1/3 innings under his belt.

Triple-A Innings for Dillon Gee

Preseason Prediction: Over/Under – 35 OVER
Actual: 48 1/3

This was an easy number to surpass for Gee seeing as he, surprisingly, started the season in Buffalo after just four starts in Double-A in 2008. However, the full season was not meant to be for Gee—who, with a strong season, was likely to be a September call up—as a labrum injury knocked him out for the seeing after just nine starts during which he went 1-3 with a 4.10 ERA with 42 strikeouts and 16 walks.

Batting Average for Wilmer Flores

Preseason Prediction: Over/Under – .310 UNDER
Actual: .264

We used his 2008 in average as a starting point for Flores, but as expected he went to Savannah and struggled with consistency in the long-season league. His batting average this season was a month-to-month story. Flores got off to a strong start as he hit .296 in April but followed that up with a .235 mark in May. He turned around had his best stretch of the season in June and July, a stretch in which he hit .294. But the number of games finally caught up to the 18-year-old shortstop and he hit just .218 in his final 33 games.

ERA for Scott Shaw

Preseason Prediction: Over/Under – 3.50 UNDER
Actual: 3.73

Shaw, like Flores, saw his average fluctuate from month to month and that caused his ERA to finish just beyond his benchmark. Shaw was actually exceeded his prediction in the first half of the season as he posted a 3.38 ERA in his first 12 starts, and was very sharp in August when he went 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA in August, but an inconsistent July during which he posted a 5.00 ERA in five starts caused his final mark to go beyond the preseason prediction.

Stolen Bases for Greg Veloz

Preseason Prediction: Over/Under – 30 OVER
Actual: 18 (with St. Lucie)

Veloz, the former St. Lucie second baseman who was traded away in the re-acquisition of Anderson Hernandez, swiped 30 bags in 2008 and looked poised to exceed that mark this season. However, Veloz's success rate has always been less than average (29-for-43 in '08) and it appeared again this season as he went 18-for-26 in attempts this season.

Home Run Total for Lucas Duda

Preseason Prediction: Over/Under – 11 OVER
Actual: 9

Eleven home runs was Duda's 2008 total and the expectation was that his power would go to the next level in Double-A. The biggest factor in his home run total is the ability to generate greater loft on the ball, and as mentioned in previous articles, that has yet to fully develop for the first baseman. Duda hit four home runs prior to the Eastern League All-Star break and went through a power surge in July when he hit five home runs. He looked on his way to surpassing last season's mark, but he went on the disabled list on August 12 following ten homerless games in August and thus the prediction did not come to fruition.

Error Total for Ruben Tejada

Preseason Prediction: Over/Under – 25 UNDER
Actual: 21

We gave Tejada a target that was five fewer than the 30 errors he committed last season in St. Lucie. The anticipation was that the maturity of his skills and the adjustment to the speed of the game would allow Tejada to find a comfort zone that would decrease his error total. Such was the case as Tejada rather narrowly matched the prediction as he compiled 21 errors in 2009.

Number of Levels for Brant Rustich

Preseason Prediction: Over/Under – 1.5 OVER
Actual: 1

Leading up to the 2009 season, the expectations were that this would be the year Rustich would stay healthy and earn the promotions many are looking for from the right-hander. Nagging injuries and inconsistency was once again the story of Rustich's season as he was limited to 47 2/3 innings and denied him the opportunity of moving up to Binghamton.

Home Run Total for Ike Davis

Preseason Prediction: Over/Under – 8 UNDER
Actual: 20

Well, this prediction proved to be WAY off as Davis swatted 20 home runs en route to becoming the organizations' home run leader this season. The preseason thought was the large parks and good pitching of the Florida State League would make it tough for Davis to ratchet up his home run totals, but the first baseman proved us wrong as he hit seven home runs in 59 games in St. Lucie before erupting for 13 homers in 55 games in Binghamton. The re-development of his swing was the deciding factor and he did his damage with it.

Batting Average for Josh Thole

Preseason Prediction: Over/Under – .290
Actual: .328

Thole was moving up the stock charts at the end of the 2008, but there were reservations in this prediction as to whether or not he would keep the momentum headed upwards in Binghamton. Once again, we were wrong as Thole further adopted his very basic hitting approach and turned it into a successful methodology. Thole hit under .310 during a full month just once this season and it was no surprise that it came in August, at the end of his first full season catching.


Amazin Clubhouse Top Stories

\r\n \r\n\r\nStrikeout Total for Brad Holt
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Over/Under – 125 OVER
\r\nActual: 99
\r\n
\r\nGiven his strikeout ratio while in St. Lucie, Holt was well on his way to going over 125 strikeouts, but upon his promotion to Binghamton, the right-hander lost his way with his mechanics and thus the explosion on his fastball and the drop on his changeup. The result was a drastic drop in strikeout including just eight punchouts in his last 17 innings. However, despite the decrease, Holt would have been close to the target had he not been shutdown after August with just 101 1/3 innings under his belt.
\r\n
\r\nTriple-A Innings for Dillon Gee
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Over/Under – 35 OVER
\r\nActual: 48 1/3
\r\n
\r\nThis was an easy number to surpass for Gee seeing as he, surprisingly, started the season in Buffalo after just four starts in Double-A in 2008. However, the full season was not meant to be for Gee—who, with a strong season, was likely to be a September call up—as a labrum injury knocked him out for the seeing after just nine starts during which he went 1-3 with a 4.10 ERA with 42 strikeouts and 16 walks.
\r\n
\r\nBatting Average for Wilmer Flores
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Over/Under – .310 UNDER
\r\nActual: .264
\r\n
\r\nWe used his 2008 in average as a starting point for Flores, but as expected he went to Savannah and struggled with consistency in the long-season league. His batting average this season was a month-to-month story. Flores got off to a strong start as he hit .296 in April but followed that up with a .235 mark in May. He turned around had his best stretch of the season in June and July, a stretch in which he hit .294. But the number of games finally caught up to the 18-year-old shortstop and he hit just .218 in his final 33 games.
\r\n
\r\nERA for Scott Shaw
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Over/Under – 3.50 UNDER
\r\nActual: 3.73
\r\n
\r\nShaw, like Flores, saw his average fluctuate from month to month and that caused his ERA to finish just beyond his benchmark. Shaw was actually exceeded his prediction in the first half of the season as he posted a 3.38 ERA in his first 12 starts, and was very sharp in August when he went 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA in August, but an inconsistent July during which he posted a 5.00 ERA in five starts caused his final mark to go beyond the preseason prediction.
\r\n
\r\nStolen Bases for Greg Veloz
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Over/Under – 30 OVER
\r\nActual: 18 (with St. Lucie)
\r\n
\r\nVeloz, the former St. Lucie second baseman who was traded away in the re-acquisition of Anderson Hernandez, swiped 30 bags in 2008 and looked poised to exceed that mark this season. However, Veloz's success rate has always been less than average (29-for-43 in '08) and it appeared again this season as he went 18-for-26 in attempts this season.
\r\n
\r\nHome Run Total for Lucas Duda
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Over/Under – 11 OVER
\r\nActual: 9
\r\n
\r\nEleven home runs was Duda's 2008 total and the expectation was that his power would go to the next level in Double-A. The biggest factor in his home run total is the ability to generate greater loft on the ball, and as mentioned in previous articles, that has yet to fully develop for the first baseman. Duda hit four home runs prior to the Eastern League All-Star break and went through a power surge in July when he hit five home runs. He looked on his way to surpassing last season's mark, but he went on the disabled list on August 12 following ten homerless games in August and thus the prediction did not come to fruition.
\r\n
\r\nError Total for Ruben Tejada
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Over/Under – 25 UNDER
\r\nActual: 21
\r\n
\r\nWe gave Tejada a target that was five fewer than the 30 errors he committed last season in St. Lucie. The anticipation was that the maturity of his skills and the adjustment to the speed of the game would allow Tejada to find a comfort zone that would decrease his error total. Such was the case as Tejada rather narrowly matched the prediction as he compiled 21 errors in 2009.
\r\n
\r\nNumber of Levels for Brant Rustich
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Over/Under – 1.5 OVER
\r\nActual: 1
\r\n
\r\nLeading up to the 2009 season, the expectations were that this would be the year Rustich would stay healthy and earn the promotions many are looking for from the right-hander. Nagging injuries and inconsistency was once again the story of Rustich's season as he was limited to 47 2/3 innings and denied him the opportunity of moving up to Binghamton.
\r\n
\r\nHome Run Total for Ike Davis
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Over/Under – 8 UNDER
\r\nActual: 20
\r\n
\r\nWell, this prediction proved to be WAY off as Davis swatted 20 home runs en route to becoming the organizations' home run leader this season. The preseason thought was the large parks and good pitching of the Florida State League would make it tough for Davis to ratchet up his home run totals, but the first baseman proved us wrong as he hit seven home runs in 59 games in St. Lucie before erupting for 13 homers in 55 games in Binghamton. The re-development of his swing was the deciding factor and he did his damage with it.
\r\n
\r\nBatting Average for Josh Thole
\r\n
\r\nPreseason Prediction: Over/Under – .290
\r\nActual: .328
\r\n
\r\nThole was moving up the stock charts at the end of the 2008, but there were reservations in this prediction as to whether or not he would keep the momentum headed upwards in Binghamton. Once again, we were wrong as Thole further adopted his very basic hitting approach and turned it into a successful methodology. Thole hit under .310 during a full month just once this season and it was no surprise that it came in August, at the end of his first full season catching.
\r\n
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