Post-Season Stock Up / Stock Down

With the 2009 season now in the books, several prospects have seen their stock rise and/or fall since our mid-season edition of Stock Up/Stock Down. Now we look at the select few who fit the bill as prospects head into the off-season. Here are some of the Mets farmhands who have seen their place in the farm system shift this season.

STOCK UP:

Kirk Nieuwenhuis:

No one can match the summer Nieuwenhuis had. His offensive explosion was unparalleled in the closing six weeks of the season and that streak was a testament to a strong compliment of tools that just took some time to develop over the course of a long season. He flashed the extra base power and speed combo last year in Brooklyn but expectations were that it would take a chunk of the 2009 season to put it all together. Nieuwenhuis' tools provide a pretty clear cut, safe projection and he has reinforced the belief that he would become a very solid-across-the-board guy with above average tools in every department.

What adds further stock to Nieuwenhuis are the defensive improvements he made. With Brooklyn, his route running and reading off the bat was off at times but he cleaned that up in a big way this summer and now looks like a bona fide centerfielder in this system. There is no doubt that he will be the top outfield prospect heading into 2010.

Zach Lutz:

Health. Health. Health. That has been the necessary element to Lutz's success. Ravaged by ankle and leg injuries during his first two seasons, Lutz finally had the opportunity to display his talents this year and turned out to be one of the biggest pieces to St. Lucie's potent offense in the second half. He too needed the first half to settle in, but once he did the power, natural opposite field approach and overall consistency came to the forefront. In a system that is still very hungry for offense-first prospects, Lutz's re-emergence this season provides very needed depth.

Jeurys Familia:

It's quite a statement to say a pitcher goes from the Gulf Coast League to one of the best pitching prospects in the organization, but that is exactly what Familia accomplished in 2009. His rapid maturation at the front of the talented Savannah rotation was quicker than many anticipated but a sharper breaking ball, combined with a much more employable changeup, has opened up the possibility that Familia could find himself in Double-A sometime in 2010.

Josh Stinson:

It was the 21-year-old's fourth season in the organization, but as mentioned in the Arizona Fall League preview, Stinson has really found his rhythm as a reliever and the results showed with his strong second half in St. Lucie. The focus on a diminished but concentrated repertoire that focused on his two fastballs and curveball have resulted in big dividends for Stinson. Again as mentioned, his assignment to the Arizona Fall League speaks to his increase in value. Though it is sometimes difficult to a peg a middle reliever as a long-term prospect, the battle of attrition from which Stinson has come out positively only raises his stock.

Armando Rodriguez:

If one is looking for a sleeper from this year's short-season clubs, they need not look further than Rodriguez. The 21-year-old displayed power, velocity and projectable tools during his first season stateside ( 4-4/2.63/81K/.188 OBA with DSL in 2008) and has built a case to be a "lesser" name to watch in 2010. However, his name will not be relatively unknown for long if he can continue to keep his strikeouts up, his walks down and his command of the lower third of the strike zone. It's still relatively early for Rodriguez, but his 2009 performance only raises the stock of an intriguing young arm.

STOCK DOWN:

Jefry Marte:

Marte expectedly struggled during his first full season in Savannah, and while it is not so much his performance that drags down Marte's stock, it is the correction of the preseason perception that Marte was such a valued commodity in the Mets system. There was varied opinion before the season about Marte's status, and numerous scouts had told Inside Pitch before the season that they believed Marte would hit his ceiling in High-A ball.

Now, that could ultimately prove untrue but reports came out that Marte isn't necessarily "a leading guy" in the organization which no doubt decreases his stock as it speaks to his internal value. We are still on the fence from Marte as we await his response in his second full season, but he has yet to improve his standing upon last year's scouting report.

Brant Rustich:

Conversely to Lutz, health is the primary reason for a drop in Rustich's stock. The big right-hander has always had the stuff to move quicker, and was anticipated to upon his drafting, but continued inability to stay on the mound for extended periods of time only negatively effects his stock. As previously mentioned, all it takes is health to get Rustich moving up the ranks, but without that his career has stagnated which has dropped his stock.

Michael Antonini:

Hesitations existed in regards to Antonini at the end of last season and those centered on his ability to develop his breaking ball. A predominate fly ball pitcher, Antonini needed his curveball to mature in order to get more swings and misses and to keep hitters from locking on his 88-91 MPH fastball. He struggled with that development and it showed in his rocky performance in Binghamton and Buffalo this season. He eventually regained his form down the stretch, but following his very successful 2008 campaign, his inconsistencies this year have resulted in a back slide of his projection from a starter to a more likely bullpen role at the highest level.

Francisco Pena:

Pena's long term projections continue to take hits as he struggles to find an identity both at the plate and behind it. While his makeup continues to improve and his understanding of the game continues to sharpen, the adjustments have not come easy for him particularly with the bat. Perhaps that had to do with his aggressive assignments since the day he entered the system, but it's about tools and his lack of consistent mechanics (to be further outlined in his scouting report this fall) speak to a game that has yet to mature.

Hector Pellot:

It is pretty simple for Pellot. He is losing out to younger competition that has played their way into greater value, like Ruben Tejada, Reese Havens and others. Hip surgery caused him to miss a golden opportunity in 2008 when he came off a very strong 2007 season. When he returned in 2009, the St. Lucie infield was crowded with higher priority talent which relegated Pellot to the bench. It will be difficult for him to retain a roster spot next season or he will otherwise be a bench player in Binghamton.


Amazin Clubhouse Top Stories

\r\n \r\n\r\nSTOCK UP:
\r\n
\r\nKirk Nieuwenhuis:
\r\n
\r\nNo one can match the summer Nieuwenhuis had. His offensive explosion was unparalleled in the closing six weeks of the season and that streak was a testament to a strong compliment of tools that just took some time to develop over the course of a long season. He flashed the extra base power and speed combo last year in Brooklyn but expectations were that it would take a chunk of the 2009 season to put it all together. Nieuwenhuis' tools provide a pretty clear cut, safe projection and he has reinforced the belief that he would become a very solid-across-the-board guy with above average tools in every department.
\r\n
\r\nWhat adds further stock to Nieuwenhuis are the defensive improvements he made. With Brooklyn, his route running and reading off the bat was off at times but he cleaned that up in a big way this summer and now looks like a bona fide centerfielder in this system. There is no doubt that he will be the top outfield prospect heading into 2010.
\r\n
\r\nZach Lutz:
\r\n
\r\nHealth. Health. Health. That has been the necessary element to Lutz's success. Ravaged by ankle and leg injuries during his first two seasons, Lutz finally had the opportunity to display his talents this year and turned out to be one of the biggest pieces to St. Lucie's potent offense in the second half. He too needed the first half to settle in, but once he did the power, natural opposite field approach and overall consistency came to the forefront. In a system that is still very hungry for offense-first prospects, Lutz's re-emergence this season provides very needed depth.
\r\n
\r\nJeurys Familia:
\r\n
\r\nIt's quite a statement to say a pitcher goes from the Gulf Coast League to one of the best pitching prospects in the organization, but that is exactly what Familia accomplished in 2009. His rapid maturation at the front of the talented Savannah rotation was quicker than many anticipated but a sharper breaking ball, combined with a much more employable changeup, has opened up the possibility that Familia could find himself in Double-A sometime in 2010.
\r\n
\r\nJosh Stinson:
\r\n
\r\nIt was the 21-year-old's fourth season in the organization, but as mentioned in the Arizona Fall League preview, Stinson has really found his rhythm as a reliever and the results showed with his strong second half in St. Lucie. The focus on a diminished but concentrated repertoire that focused on his two fastballs and curveball have resulted in big dividends for Stinson. Again as mentioned, his assignment to the Arizona Fall League speaks to his increase in value. Though it is sometimes difficult to a peg a middle reliever as a long-term prospect, the battle of attrition from which Stinson has come out positively only raises his stock.
\r\n
\r\nArmando Rodriguez:
\r\n
\r\nIf one is looking for a sleeper from this year's short-season clubs, they need not look further than Rodriguez. The 21-year-old displayed power, velocity and projectable tools during his first season stateside ( 4-4/2.63/81K/.188 OBA with DSL in 2008) and has built a case to be a \"lesser\" name to watch in 2010. However, his name will not be relatively unknown for long if he can continue to keep his strikeouts up, his walks down and his command of the lower third of the strike zone. It's still relatively early for Rodriguez, but his 2009 performance only raises the stock of an intriguing young arm.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK DOWN:
\r\n
\r\nJefry Marte:
\r\n
\r\nMarte expectedly struggled during his first full season in Savannah, and while it is not so much his performance that drags down Marte's stock, it is the correction of the preseason perception that Marte was such a valued commodity in the Mets system. There was varied opinion before the season about Marte's status, and numerous scouts had told Inside Pitch before the season that they believed Marte would hit his ceiling in High-A ball.
\r\n
\r\nNow, that could ultimately prove untrue but reports came out that Marte isn't necessarily \"a leading guy\" in the organization which no doubt decreases his stock as it speaks to his internal value. We are still on the fence from Marte as we await his response in his second full season, but he has yet to improve his standing upon last year's scouting report.
\r\n
\r\nBrant Rustich:
\r\n
\r\nConversely to Lutz, health is the primary reason for a drop in Rustich's stock. The big right-hander has always had the stuff to move quicker, and was anticipated to upon his drafting, but continued inability to stay on the mound for extended periods of time only negatively effects his stock. As previously mentioned, all it takes is health to get Rustich moving up the ranks, but without that his career has stagnated which has dropped his stock.
\r\n
\r\nMichael Antonini:
\r\n
\r\nHesitations existed in regards to Antonini at the end of last season and those centered on his ability to develop his breaking ball. A predominate fly ball pitcher, Antonini needed his curveball to mature in order to get more swings and misses and to keep hitters from locking on his 88-91 MPH fastball. He struggled with that development and it showed in his rocky performance in Binghamton and Buffalo this season. He eventually regained his form down the stretch, but following his very successful 2008 campaign, his inconsistencies this year have resulted in a back slide of his projection from a starter to a more likely bullpen role at the highest level.
\r\n
\r\nFrancisco Pena:
\r\n
\r\nPena's long term projections continue to take hits as he struggles to find an identity both at the plate and behind it. While his makeup continues to improve and his understanding of the game continues to sharpen, the adjustments have not come easy for him particularly with the bat. Perhaps that had to do with his aggressive assignments since the day he entered the system, but it's about tools and his lack of consistent mechanics (to be further outlined in his scouting report this fall) speak to a game that has yet to mature.
\r\n
\r\nHector Pellot:
\r\n
\r\nIt is pretty simple for Pellot. He is losing out to younger competition that has played their way into greater value, like Ruben Tejada, Reese Havens and others. Hip surgery caused him to miss a golden opportunity in 2008 when he came off a very strong 2007 season. When he returned in 2009, the St. Lucie infield was crowded with higher priority talent which relegated Pellot to the bench. It will be difficult for him to retain a roster spot next season or he will otherwise be a bench player in Binghamton.
\r\n
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