Scouting Mets Prospect #37: Carlos Guzman

The Mets signed outfielder Carlos Guzman in late 2006, and since he has built his way up from relative obscurity. After a strong season in Savannah in 2008, Guzman firmly planted himself on the radar with a big season in St. Lucie this year. His performance provided valuable system depth in the outfield. How can he continue to play into the Mets plans? Check out his scouting report to find out.

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Vital Statistics
Name: Carlos Guzman
DOB: May 24, 1986
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 195
Bats: Switch
Throws: Right
Status: Free Agent Signing (10/31/2006)

Carlos Guzman became an important run producer for the St. Lucie Mets in 2009, but how his career began was anything but impactful. Originally overlooked in the draft when he graduated high school in 2004, it took until after the 2006 season for him to ink a deal. It was the Mets who came calling, working out the Brooklyn native who spent two years at Brookdale Community College in New Jersey.

Since his signing, Guzman, who approached his 21st birthday when he finally debuted in the Gulf Coast League in 2007, has continually defended against observers. Many thought he was too old to make an impact or lacked the tools that would have otherwise directed earlier looks his way.

His first season in the organization appeared to speak to those concerns. Guzman's raw power originally drew scouts in and he showed it during first season. He hit five home runs and drove in 24 runs, but hit just .215 and looked like a hitter who could send one over the fence but lacked fundamentals to be a complete hitter.

But the organization was not going to be dissuaded and backed Guzman enough to send him to Savannah for his second season in 2008. There, the outfielder began to emerge. In 84 games with the Sand Gnats, Guzman hit .269 with eight home runs and 33 RBI, stole 14 bases and held down right field. Thus, he took the appropriate next step to St. Lucie this season where he made his name more recognizable thanks to a big season at the heart of the High-A Mets order.

Guzman got off to a terrific start. He hit for a .303 average through his first two months, showing power with six home runs and consistently providing run-scoring at-bats. It appeared the outfielder was continuing the trend he began the previous season.

The home run power remained deeper into the season. He hit seven more home runs combined in July and August, but Guzman had a difficult time answering to the adjustments pitchers made against him. He hit just .216 over a span of 190 at-bats in those two months which was magnified by his rather glaring gaps in his splits. Guzman, a .313 hitter from the left side, managed only a .191 from the right-side.

Guzman can become an even greater offensive presence if can even out that disparity from each side of the plate and develop a more balanced approach at the plate. Nonetheless, Guzman got a look at Double-A Binghamton in the final week, a move the organization hopes will pay dividends as he shakes off doubters and makes further impressions in the system.

Year

Team

AVG.

AB

Hits

HR

RBI

R

SB

BB

K

OBP

SLG

2009

Binghamton

.130

23

3

1

3

2

0

1

7

.200

.261

2009

St. Lucie

.290

472

137

15

64

59

6

39

95

.347

.453

2008

Savannah

.269

294

79

8

33

36

14

20

84

.314

.405

2007

GCL

.215

130

28

5

24

19

6

24

37

.358

.392



Batting and Power: Guzman is an aggressive free swinger who really only knows one method of hitting, and that is with big cuts for power which rests almost entirely from the left side. He has a wide stance with his weight resting heavily on his back side. He keeps the bat tightly on his shoulder. He loads up that energy on his bat foot, but has trouble shortening up his swing when needed and lacks ideal pitch recognition. That makes him a one-pitch, one-zone hitter. Because of that, Guzman feasts primarily on fastballs and thus almost all of his contact is to the pull side. As mentioned, the most glaring aspect of his offense is the large gap in production from the left side to the right side. He grades out as an average power hitter from the left side but has so far offered almost null from the right.

Base Running and Speed: Guzman boasts average athleticism and is a better runner whose speed comes out when he is fully in stride. He was a successful base stealer in his first two seasons, but saw his ratio decrease with a move to High-A ball. The reason is that lack of a first step which affects him both as a base stealer and out of the box. He has enough skills to remain a complimentary base stealer who could reach low double-digit totals if he takes enough chances. However, he will likely remain a middle of the order hitter and may see his opportunities decrease over time.

Defense: Guzman's defensive skills are basic and have room for improvement. His best defensive tool, and arguably his best baseball tool, is his above average arm strength. His arm could be an even bigger weapon, but is slightly diminished by a long release. He has below average fielding instincts and often takes bad routes and reads on the ball. He does not have the speed or ability to recover his errors which makes him a rather basic outfielder who is looked upon to just successfully complete the basics. He is a true right fielder who does not provide flexibility to play anywhere else.

Projection: Through performance, Guzman has been able to sway the opinions of some observers who thought he would top out at the High-A level upon his signing. As long as Guzman continues to produce at the plate, he will continue to get his shots. But he cannot afford any periods of prolonged slumping or ineffectiveness. His game is predicated by his raw power, but needs a more sound contact approach to really move his stock upwards. A more complete approach and any semblance of production from the right side, or become an exclusive left-handed hitter, will also bump his stock. However, lacking speed and defense will not provide him the flexibility to sneak onto the 25-man roster as an ideal fourth outfielder. Therefore, he likely will have to hit his way onto the big league roster. Given his tenuous and unorthodox entry into the system, Guzman will have to prove himself at every level. The Eastern League will be a challenge and a better picture will be painted in 2010, but for now Guzman looks like an organizational player who will top out at the higher levels.

ETA: 2012. Guzman will return to Binghamton to start the 2010 season, but for now there does not offer enough complete offense in his game to get him a big league look before another two seasons on the farm. If/when his promotion does come; it will likely be as a temporary fill to provide a little pop to the lineup.


Amazin Clubhouse Top Stories

\r\n \r\n\r\nTo discuss all of the scouting reports, head to the Subscribers Forum
\r\n
\r\n
\r\nVital Statistics
\r\nName: Carlos Guzman
\r\nDOB: May 24, 1986
\r\nHeight: 6'3\"
\r\nWeight: 195
\r\nBats: Switch
\r\nThrows: Right
\r\nStatus: Free Agent Signing (10/31/2006)
\r\n
\r\nCarlos Guzman became an important run producer for the St. Lucie Mets in 2009, but how his career began was anything but impactful. Originally overlooked in the draft when he graduated high school in 2004, it took until after the 2006 season for him to ink a deal. It was the Mets who came calling, working out the Brooklyn native who spent two years at Brookdale Community College in New Jersey.
\r\n
\r\nSince his signing, Guzman, who approached his 21st birthday when he finally debuted in the Gulf Coast League in 2007, has continually defended against observers. Many thought he was too old to make an impact or lacked the tools that would have otherwise directed earlier looks his way.
\r\n
\r\nHis first season in the organization appeared to speak to those concerns. Guzman's raw power originally drew scouts in and he showed it during first season. He hit five home runs and drove in 24 runs, but hit just .215 and looked like a hitter who could send one over the fence but lacked fundamentals to be a complete hitter.
\r\n
\r\nBut the organization was not going to be dissuaded and backed Guzman enough to send him to Savannah for his second season in 2008. There, the outfielder began to emerge. In 84 games with the Sand Gnats, Guzman hit .269 with eight home runs and 33 RBI, stole 14 bases and held down right field. Thus, he took the appropriate next step to St. Lucie this season where he made his name more recognizable thanks to a big season at the heart of the High-A Mets order.
\r\n
\r\nGuzman got off to a terrific start. He hit for a .303 average through his first two months, showing power with six home runs and consistently providing run-scoring at-bats. It appeared the outfielder was continuing the trend he began the previous season.
\r\n
\r\nThe home run power remained deeper into the season. He hit seven more home runs combined in July and August, but Guzman had a difficult time answering to the adjustments pitchers made against him. He hit just .216 over a span of 190 at-bats in those two months which was magnified by his rather glaring gaps in his splits. Guzman, a .313 hitter from the left side, managed only a .191 from the right-side.
\r\n
\r\nGuzman can become an even greater offensive presence if can even out that disparity from each side of the plate and develop a more balanced approach at the plate. Nonetheless, Guzman got a look at Double-A Binghamton in the final week, a move the organization hopes will pay dividends as he shakes off doubters and makes further impressions in the system.
\r\n
\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n
\r\n

Year

\r\n

\r\n Team

\r\n

\r\n AVG.

\r\n

\r\n AB

\r\n

\r\n Hits

\r\n

\r\n HR

\r\n

\r\n RBI

\r\n

R

\r\n

\r\n SB

\r\n

\r\n BB

\r\n

K

\r\n

\r\n OBP

\r\n

\r\n SLG

\r\n

\r\n 2009

\r\n

\r\n Binghamton

\r\n

\r\n .130

\r\n

\r\n 23

\r\n

\r\n 3

\r\n

\r\n 1

\r\n

\r\n 3

\r\n

\r\n 2

\r\n

\r\n 0

\r\n

\r\n 1

\r\n

\r\n 7

\r\n

\r\n .200

\r\n

\r\n .261

\r\n

\r\n 2009

\r\n

\r\n St. Lucie

\r\n

\r\n .290

\r\n

\r\n 472

\r\n

\r\n 137

\r\n

\r\n 15

\r\n

\r\n 64

\r\n

\r\n 59

\r\n

\r\n 6

\r\n

\r\n 39

\r\n

\r\n 95

\r\n

\r\n .347

\r\n

\r\n .453

\r\n

\r\n 2008

\r\n

\r\n Savannah

\r\n

\r\n .269

\r\n

\r\n 294

\r\n

\r\n 79

\r\n

\r\n 8

\r\n

\r\n 33

\r\n

\r\n 36

\r\n

\r\n 14

\r\n

\r\n 20

\r\n

\r\n 84

\r\n

\r\n .314

\r\n

\r\n .405

\r\n

\r\n 2007

\r\n

\r\n GCL

\r\n

\r\n .215

\r\n

\r\n 130

\r\n

\r\n 28

\r\n

\r\n 5

\r\n

\r\n 24

\r\n

\r\n 19

\r\n

\r\n 6

\r\n

\r\n 24

\r\n

\r\n 37

\r\n

\r\n .358

\r\n

\r\n .392


\r\n
\r\nBatting and Power: Guzman is an aggressive free swinger who really only knows one method of hitting, and that is with big cuts for power which rests almost entirely from the left side. He has a wide stance with his weight resting heavily on his back side. He keeps the bat tightly on his shoulder. He loads up that energy on his bat foot, but has trouble shortening up his swing when needed and lacks ideal pitch recognition. That makes him a one-pitch, one-zone hitter. Because of that, Guzman feasts primarily on fastballs and thus almost all of his contact is to the pull side. As mentioned, the most glaring aspect of his offense is the large gap in production from the left side to the right side. He grades out as an average power hitter from the left side but has so far offered almost null from the right.
\r\n
\r\nBase Running and Speed: Guzman boasts average athleticism and is a better runner whose speed comes out when he is fully in stride. He was a successful base stealer in his first two seasons, but saw his ratio decrease with a move to High-A ball. The reason is that lack of a first step which affects him both as a base stealer and out of the box. He has enough skills to remain a complimentary base stealer who could reach low double-digit totals if he takes enough chances. However, he will likely remain a middle of the order hitter and may see his opportunities decrease over time.
\r\n
\r\nDefense: Guzman's defensive skills are basic and have room for improvement. His best defensive tool, and arguably his best baseball tool, is his above average arm strength. His arm could be an even bigger weapon, but is slightly diminished by a long release. He has below average fielding instincts and often takes bad routes and reads on the ball. He does not have the speed or ability to recover his errors which makes him a rather basic outfielder who is looked upon to just successfully complete the basics. He is a true right fielder who does not provide flexibility to play anywhere else.
\r\n
\r\n Projection: Through performance, Guzman has been able to sway the opinions of some observers who thought he would top out at the High-A level upon his signing. As long as Guzman continues to produce at the plate, he will continue to get his shots. But he cannot afford any periods of prolonged slumping or ineffectiveness. His game is predicated by his raw power, but needs a more sound contact approach to really move his stock upwards. A more complete approach and any semblance of production from the right side, or become an exclusive left-handed hitter, will also bump his stock. However, lacking speed and defense will not provide him the flexibility to sneak onto the 25-man roster as an ideal fourth outfielder. Therefore, he likely will have to hit his way onto the big league roster. Given his tenuous and unorthodox entry into the system, Guzman will have to prove himself at every level. The Eastern League will be a challenge and a better picture will be painted in 2010, but for now Guzman looks like an organizational player who will top out at the higher levels.
\r\n
\r\nETA: 2012. Guzman will return to Binghamton to start the 2010 season, but for now there does not offer enough complete offense in his game to get him a big league look before another two seasons on the farm. If/when his promotion does come; it will likely be as a temporary fill to provide a little pop to the lineup.
\r\n
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