MMLN - Mets Prospect Over/Unders

InsidePitchMagazine.com begins its predictions for the upcoming season by focusing on individual benchmarks players will surpass or fall short of reaching this season. What is the over/under on Brad Holt's strikeout total? How many home runs will Wilmer Flores hit? What will Reese Havens' batting average be for this upcoming season? Look inside for those predictions and more.

ERA for Jeurys Familia – 3.50: Familia will be off to St. Lucie this season after putting together dominant stretches in the South Atlantic League. The benefitting factor that can allow Familia to keep his ERA at a very respectable level is low amount of base runners he surrenders. Reports of a higher velocity and improving slider should allow for a smooth transition to the pitcher-friendly Florida State League and the more expansive Tradition Field. Additionally, if he maintains his fastball velocity at 92-94 MPH and continues to improve his command, he should see his strikeouts ratio rise and as a result be able to rely on it more to finish at-bats. Pitching as a 20-year-old in the Florida State League is no easy task, but Familia should be up for it. UNDER

Strikeouts for Brad Holt – 130: Holt's struggles in Binghamton were well documented (and to be further explained by him in tomorrow's feature). Arm fatigue, an ankle injury and illness all sapped the right-hander's power. When throwing right, both mechanically and with his approach, Holt has the tools to be a viable strikeout pitcher as seen during his first season in Brooklyn. Despite all of his struggles, Holt struck out 99 batters in 101 1/3 innings last year, led by his 11.2 K/9 ratio in St. Lucie. A re-energized body and better pitch sequencing should allow him to go over the mark as long as he hits his innings. OVER

Home Runs for Wilmer Flores – 10: Flores; task for power goes up a notch in the Florida State League where bigger parks and tougher pitching will present greater challenges. Better secondary pitches and pitchers relying less on their fastball will force Flores to become a more disciplined hitter. That being said, one of Flores' best traits with the bat is his pitch recognition and his ability to keep his hands back and drive the ball. The biggest difference will be whether or not Flores develops greater loft on his swing. Best prediction is that Flores starts slow with the power before it comes later in the year. OVER

Batting Average for Reese Havens – .275: Health has prevented Havens' talents with the bat from coming to the surface during his first two seasons. Havens' short, quick bat path and strong hands make him adept at making contact. A powerful lower half provides Havens with the power to be an above average home run hitter for his position. Havens hit on .247 in 97 disjointed games in St. Lucie, but when healthy got hot at the end of the FSL season and in the Arizona Fall League. Health and regular playing time should allow his real hitting traits to come to fruition. OVER

Home Run Total for Carlos Guzman – 20: Guzman emerged as a power threat with St. Lucie last season. Now expectations are higher as he moves on to Binghamton this season. The move, however, comes with the challenge of facing much more polished pitchers who will be more unforgiving to Guzman's poor splits as a switch hitter. Even from the left side, the majority of Guzman's offense is to the pull side. If he does not develop greater plate coverage, pitchers will adapt, work him away and thus diminish his long ball potency. Guzman will get his share of home runs, but the prediction is for the right fielder to stay at the status quo. UNDER

Stolen Base Total for Darrell Ceciliani – 25 One of Ceciliani's best tools, and arguably his best tool at this time, is his plus speed. He put that on display last season by stealing 14 bases in 42 games despite just a .313 on-base percentage. Ceciliani's success ratio increased when he got hot down the stretch in Kingsport. Ceciliani should be off to Savannah and once he settles into an offensive rhythm his stolen base numbers should increase accordingly. OVER

Batting Average for Josh Thole – .315:As we saw in Binghamton last season and during his big league promotion in September, Thole's contact-only approach translates to instant results in the batting average column. That should continue as he takes to Buffalo in 2010. Coaches like the way Thole has swung this spring, and when Thole feels challenged he has found ways to break things down even simpler and turn it into production. Thole will unlikely repeat the near .350 average he hit for most of the Double-A season in 2009, but he should nudge above a .315 mark. OVER

Strikeout Total for Kirk Nieuwenhuis – 110: Nieuwenhuis struck out 127 times in 2009. It was a glaring number on an otherwise very impressive stat sheet. Many of the strikeouts came from a large hole in Nieuwenhuis' swing on the inside corner. However, Nieuwenhuis closed that hole which led to his eruption in the month of August. Further improvements on the inner half should cut down on his punchouts. It's asking a lot for his total to decrease by more than 25 percent, but even a decrease of around 20 will be enough to effect his on-base percentage and make him a more capable and productive hitter. UNDER

Error Total for Jefry Marte – 30: The error total cannot get any worse for Marte who recorded between 45-50 errors last year and even that total may be generous. Setting himself in proper position is important as is Marte's body control and putting his throw on target. Pretty much all of his defensive mechanics need work. Marte made improvements during the Instructional League and coaches are pleased with his progress. It's bit of a gut shot call and one that puts a lot of stock in Marte. UNDER

Home Run Total for Cesar Puello – 10: Puello too will be off to long season ball in Savannah. Puello has the discipline and bat speed to drive the ball to all fields, but the shorter left field in Savannah and his raw power should translate to solid power numbers this season. It is important he not wide-eyed and pull-happy because he has the tools to have a breakout in year the power category if he sticks with his existing approach. OVER


Amazin Clubhouse Top Stories

\r\n \r\n\r\nERA for Jeurys Familia – 3.50: Familia will be off to St. Lucie this season after putting together dominant stretches in the South Atlantic League. The benefitting factor that can allow Familia to keep his ERA at a very respectable level is low amount of base runners he surrenders. Reports of a higher velocity and improving slider should allow for a smooth transition to the pitcher-friendly Florida State League and the more expansive Tradition Field. Additionally, if he maintains his fastball velocity at 92-94 MPH and continues to improve his command, he should see his strikeouts ratio rise and as a result be able to rely on it more to finish at-bats. Pitching as a 20-year-old in the Florida State League is no easy task, but Familia should be up for it. UNDER
\r\n
\r\nStrikeouts for Brad Holt – 130: Holt's struggles in Binghamton were well documented (and to be further explained by him in tomorrow's feature). Arm fatigue, an ankle injury and illness all sapped the right-hander's power. When throwing right, both mechanically and with his approach, Holt has the tools to be a viable strikeout pitcher as seen during his first season in Brooklyn. Despite all of his struggles, Holt struck out 99 batters in 101 1/3 innings last year, led by his 11.2 K/9 ratio in St. Lucie. A re-energized body and better pitch sequencing should allow him to go over the mark as long as he hits his innings. OVER
\r\n
\r\nHome Runs for Wilmer Flores – 10: Flores; task for power goes up a notch in the Florida State League where bigger parks and tougher pitching will present greater challenges. Better secondary pitches and pitchers relying less on their fastball will force Flores to become a more disciplined hitter. That being said, one of Flores' best traits with the bat is his pitch recognition and his ability to keep his hands back and drive the ball. The biggest difference will be whether or not Flores develops greater loft on his swing. Best prediction is that Flores starts slow with the power before it comes later in the year. OVER
\r\n
\r\nBatting Average for Reese Havens – .275: Health has prevented Havens' talents with the bat from coming to the surface during his first two seasons. Havens' short, quick bat path and strong hands make him adept at making contact. A powerful lower half provides Havens with the power to be an above average home run hitter for his position. Havens hit on .247 in 97 disjointed games in St. Lucie, but when healthy got hot at the end of the FSL season and in the Arizona Fall League. Health and regular playing time should allow his real hitting traits to come to fruition. OVER
\r\n
\r\nHome Run Total for Carlos Guzman – 20: Guzman emerged as a power threat with St. Lucie last season. Now expectations are higher as he moves on to Binghamton this season. The move, however, comes with the challenge of facing much more polished pitchers who will be more unforgiving to Guzman's poor splits as a switch hitter. Even from the left side, the majority of Guzman's offense is to the pull side. If he does not develop greater plate coverage, pitchers will adapt, work him away and thus diminish his long ball potency. Guzman will get his share of home runs, but the prediction is for the right fielder to stay at the status quo. UNDER
\r\n
\r\nStolen Base Total for Darrell Ceciliani – 25 One of Ceciliani's best tools, and arguably his best tool at this time, is his plus speed. He put that on display last season by stealing 14 bases in 42 games despite just a .313 on-base percentage. Ceciliani's success ratio increased when he got hot down the stretch in Kingsport. Ceciliani should be off to Savannah and once he settles into an offensive rhythm his stolen base numbers should increase accordingly. OVER
\r\n
\r\nBatting Average for Josh Thole – .315:As we saw in Binghamton last season and during his big league promotion in September, Thole's contact-only approach translates to instant results in the batting average column. That should continue as he takes to Buffalo in 2010. Coaches like the way Thole has swung this spring, and when Thole feels challenged he has found ways to break things down even simpler and turn it into production. Thole will unlikely repeat the near .350 average he hit for most of the Double-A season in 2009, but he should nudge above a .315 mark. OVER
\r\n
\r\nStrikeout Total for Kirk Nieuwenhuis – 110: Nieuwenhuis struck out 127 times in 2009. It was a glaring number on an otherwise very impressive stat sheet. Many of the strikeouts came from a large hole in Nieuwenhuis' swing on the inside corner. However, Nieuwenhuis closed that hole which led to his eruption in the month of August. Further improvements on the inner half should cut down on his punchouts. It's asking a lot for his total to decrease by more than 25 percent, but even a decrease of around 20 will be enough to effect his on-base percentage and make him a more capable and productive hitter. UNDER
\r\n
\r\nError Total for Jefry Marte – 30: The error total cannot get any worse for Marte who recorded between 45-50 errors last year and even that total may be generous. Setting himself in proper position is important as is Marte's body control and putting his throw on target. Pretty much all of his defensive mechanics need work. Marte made improvements during the Instructional League and coaches are pleased with his progress. It's bit of a gut shot call and one that puts a lot of stock in Marte. UNDER
\r\n
\r\nHome Run Total for Cesar Puello – 10: Puello too will be off to long season ball in Savannah. Puello has the discipline and bat speed to drive the ball to all fields, but the shorter left field in Savannah and his raw power should translate to solid power numbers this season. It is important he not wide-eyed and pull-happy because he has the tools to have a breakout in year the power category if he sticks with his existing approach. OVER
\r\n
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