MMLN – Mets Prospects Over/Unders Part II

InsidePitchMagazine.com continues its predictions for the upcoming season by focusing on individual benchmarks players will surpass or fall short of reaching this season. What is the over under on Fernando Martinez's home run total? Where will Francisco Pena's batting average settle? How many runs will Zach Lutz drive in this season? Look inside for those predictions and more.

Batting Average for Francisco Pena - .275: Pena is making strides defensively, but his offense will be a driving force to his success this season. Pena hit a career-high .264 with Savannah in 2008, his second with the Sand Gnats. The hope is that the trend will continue in 2010 when he likely repeats the Florida State League this season. Pena's swing and contact began as a simple drop of the bat head and drive through the ball. However, he began showing greater consistency hitting up in the zone during the second half 2009. Continuing that trend should will help him exceed the mark, but the pitching of the FSL and low line drive ratio in his splits will keep him just shy of .275. UNDER

Home Run Total for Fernando Martinez – 15: Obviously this number depends on what the organization ultimately does with Martinez this season. However, the plans were and will likely remain that Martinez will stay on the farm until he can start every day in New York. A long tenure in Buffalo combined with health and the continued emergence of his raw power will be enough for Martinez to exceed 15 home runs and set a new career high. OVER

Home Run Total for Lucas Duda – 12: Duda's home run total dipped from 11 home runs in 2008 to nine home runs last season. The tougher Eastern League did not allow Duda to find a rhythm with his power stroke until late in the season. Duda developed greater back spin and loft on his swing which allowed for a five-homer surge in August. Continued deficiencies against left-handed pitch may continue to limit his production, but the progression with the lift of his swing should allow for Duda to eclipse the dozen mark in 2010. OVER

Batting Average for Ruben Tejada – .300: Tejada took huge strides with his contract abilities last season. He took a cue from Josh Thole by shortening up his swing, even choking up at times, and executing more on putting the ball into play. The combination of his an acute strike zone discipline and ability to put balls in play led to a significant jump in Tejada's batting average from 2008 to 2009.

That trend should continue this season whether he returns to Double-A, debuts in Triple-A and likely gets a taste of New York at some point. Tejada's average will likely swing back and forth around .300 during the season. Gut shot prediction, his cumulative average falls just shy of .300. UNDER

ERA for Kyle Allen – 4.00: Allen was very impressive in his long-season debut with the Savannah last year. Allen got stronger as the season went on including a very strong finish in August and September. Allen needs to harness slider and improve it as moves on to St. Lucie, but his strong fastball/changeup and the favor the Florida State League has towards pitches will allow Allen to keep his ERA under 4.00. Such a start will set Allen up for a promotion to Binghamton during the first half of the year. The longer he stays in St. Lucie, the better the chance this prediction holds true. UNDER

Home Run Total for Richard Lucas – 10: Richard Lucas has the size and the bat speed to hit with power. He can also drive the ball to all fields. What Lucas lacks right now is the loft on his swing to generate a higher number of home runs. Lucas can really sting the ball, but does so with enough top spin to mitigate his home run totals. Lucas should finally have a full season of ball under his belt in 2010, but will come up just shy of the double-digit mark. UNDER

ERA for Yohan Almonte – 4.00: Almonte is a live-armed right-hander that will be off to Savannah in 2010 after jumping from the Dominican Summer League to Kingsport a season ago. Almonte buzzed through five Gulf Coast League starts in 2009 before running into inconsistencies in the Appalachian League. Almonte's fastball sits 89-91 MPH and his changeup can be a tough pitch when on. Throw in good command of the strike zone and an ability to keep the ball down, and Almonte has the making of a potential sleeper in 2010. However, Almonte lacks an established breaking ball and his fringy fastball velocity will make a sub-4.00 ERA tough to come by. UNDER

Strikeout Total for Armando Rodriguez – 100: Rodriguez struck out less than one per inning overall in 2009, fanning 60 batters in 62 1/3 innings. But the ratio went up later in the season when his slider took significant strides and he had better command of his fastball down in the zone, including 24 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings in three starts with Savannah to end the year. Rodriguez backed it up with a strong Instructional League performance and is poised for a breakout year. As long as he's healthy and makes the requisite starts, Rodriguez should breeze by 100 strikeouts in 2010.

Batting Average for Aderlin Rodriguez - .300: The 2008 international free agent signing saw limited time in the Gulf Coast League last season. However, in ten games he showed enough that has scouts believe he will develop quickly as a hitter. He boasts plenty of bat speed and consistently squares the ball, driving to the outfield with force. Rodriguez should be off to Kingsport this season where he will have a relatively easy time hitting rookie league pitching. OVER

RBI Total for Zach Lutz – 70: Lutz is going to be one piece of what figures to be quite a loaded Binghamton lineup. Where he hits in that order will heavily determine his RBI total. That's not to say Lutz can't drive in runs on his own, he can, but he may be hit far enough down in the order that he will be flipping the order. Lutz drove in 62 runs in 99 games in St. Lucie last while within a similar lineup. He should eclipse 70 RBI If he exceeds 100 games in 2010.


Amazin Clubhouse Top Stories

\r\n \r\n\r\nBatting Average for Francisco Pena - .275: Pena is making strides defensively, but his offense will be a driving force to his success this season. Pena hit a career-high .264 with Savannah in 2008, his second with the Sand Gnats. The hope is that the trend will continue in 2010 when he likely repeats the Florida State League this season. Pena's swing and contact began as a simple drop of the bat head and drive through the ball. However, he began showing greater consistency hitting up in the zone during the second half 2009. Continuing that trend should will help him exceed the mark, but the pitching of the FSL and low line drive ratio in his splits will keep him just shy of .275. UNDER
\r\n
\r\nHome Run Total for Fernando Martinez – 15: Obviously this number depends on what the organization ultimately does with Martinez this season. However, the plans were and will likely remain that Martinez will stay on the farm until he can start every day in New York. A long tenure in Buffalo combined with health and the continued emergence of his raw power will be enough for Martinez to exceed 15 home runs and set a new career high. OVER
\r\n
\r\nHome Run Total for Lucas Duda – 12: Duda's home run total dipped from 11 home runs in 2008 to nine home runs last season. The tougher Eastern League did not allow Duda to find a rhythm with his power stroke until late in the season. Duda developed greater back spin and loft on his swing which allowed for a five-homer surge in August. Continued deficiencies against left-handed pitch may continue to limit his production, but the progression with the lift of his swing should allow for Duda to eclipse the dozen mark in 2010. OVER
\r\n
\r\nBatting Average for Ruben Tejada – .300: Tejada took huge strides with his contract abilities last season. He took a cue from Josh Thole by shortening up his swing, even choking up at times, and executing more on putting the ball into play. The combination of his an acute strike zone discipline and ability to put balls in play led to a significant jump in Tejada's batting average from 2008 to 2009.
\r\n
\r\nThat trend should continue this season whether he returns to Double-A, debuts in Triple-A and likely gets a taste of New York at some point. Tejada's average will likely swing back and forth around .300 during the season. Gut shot prediction, his cumulative average falls just shy of .300. UNDER
\r\n
\r\nERA for Kyle Allen – 4.00: Allen was very impressive in his long-season debut with the Savannah last year. Allen got stronger as the season went on including a very strong finish in August and September. Allen needs to harness slider and improve it as moves on to St. Lucie, but his strong fastball/changeup and the favor the Florida State League has towards pitches will allow Allen to keep his ERA under 4.00. Such a start will set Allen up for a promotion to Binghamton during the first half of the year. The longer he stays in St. Lucie, the better the chance this prediction holds true. UNDER
\r\n
\r\nHome Run Total for Richard Lucas – 10: Richard Lucas has the size and the bat speed to hit with power. He can also drive the ball to all fields. What Lucas lacks right now is the loft on his swing to generate a higher number of home runs. Lucas can really sting the ball, but does so with enough top spin to mitigate his home run totals. Lucas should finally have a full season of ball under his belt in 2010, but will come up just shy of the double-digit mark. UNDER
\r\n
\r\nERA for Yohan Almonte – 4.00: Almonte is a live-armed right-hander that will be off to Savannah in 2010 after jumping from the Dominican Summer League to Kingsport a season ago. Almonte buzzed through five Gulf Coast League starts in 2009 before running into inconsistencies in the Appalachian League. Almonte's fastball sits 89-91 MPH and his changeup can be a tough pitch when on. Throw in good command of the strike zone and an ability to keep the ball down, and Almonte has the making of a potential sleeper in 2010. However, Almonte lacks an established breaking ball and his fringy fastball velocity will make a sub-4.00 ERA tough to come by. UNDER
\r\n
\r\nStrikeout Total for Armando Rodriguez – 100: Rodriguez struck out less than one per inning overall in 2009, fanning 60 batters in 62 1/3 innings. But the ratio went up later in the season when his slider took significant strides and he had better command of his fastball down in the zone, including 24 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings in three starts with Savannah to end the year. Rodriguez backed it up with a strong Instructional League performance and is poised for a breakout year. As long as he's healthy and makes the requisite starts, Rodriguez should breeze by 100 strikeouts in 2010.
\r\n
\r\nBatting Average for Aderlin Rodriguez - .300: The 2008 international free agent signing saw limited time in the Gulf Coast League last season. However, in ten games he showed enough that has scouts believe he will develop quickly as a hitter. He boasts plenty of bat speed and consistently squares the ball, driving to the outfield with force. Rodriguez should be off to Kingsport this season where he will have a relatively easy time hitting rookie league pitching. OVER
\r\n
\r\nRBI Total for Zach Lutz – 70: Lutz is going to be one piece of what figures to be quite a loaded Binghamton lineup. Where he hits in that order will heavily determine his RBI total. That's not to say Lutz can't drive in runs on his own, he can, but he may be hit far enough down in the order that he will be flipping the order. Lutz drove in 62 runs in 99 games in St. Lucie last while within a similar lineup. He should eclipse 70 RBI If he exceeds 100 games in 2010.
\r\n
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