Mid-Season Stock Up / Stock Down

Memorial Day Weekend is a good time look back at the farm system and assess the value of certain prospects. The first two months of the season came and went with a number of prospects increasing and decreasing their stock value. InsidePitchMagazine.com looks back at these prospects and their movement around the organizational stock market.

STOCK UP

Wilmer Flores: The organization's top prospect position player which has yet to log big league time is further raising already high confidence around the organization. A return to the South Atlantic League (Low-A) in 2010 has proven to be a wise choice for Flores' development. Flores, who does not turn 19 years old until August, tied his 2009 home run total (five) in the first two months of this season.

Flores, already efficient at making consistent contact, has further improved his patience at the plate and narrowed his strikeout to walk ratio. Added power, strengthening defense at shortstop and a growing understanding of the game have Flores one step closer to his high ceiling projection.

Eric Campbell: No hitters were hotter through the first two months of the season than the 2008 8th round pick. Campbell began the season in St. Lucie where he hit .336 through 38 games. Better contact, a more discerning eye for the strike zone and better execution against secondary pitches helped Campbell develop into a more consistent hitter. Campbell has complimentary home run power, but his ability to hit for average and for extra bases convinced the organization to move him up to Binghamton where he has served as a viable infield/outfield utility player. As of June 1, Campbell hit .415 with one home run and 12 RBI through his first 10 Double-A games.

Chris Schwinden: Coming into the season, the St. Lucie starting rotation was heralded as the youngest and most talented in the organization and justifiably so. However, Chris Schwinden was overlooked in many regards. Yet, it was the right-hander that stood out in the first few months. Schwinden, a notorious strike-thrower, is armed with a low-90s fastball, a solid slider/curveball combination and a mid-70s changeup that batters find difficult to center. Those tools led to a 3-0 start and 1.83 ERA in 34 1/3 innings. The organization bumped Schwinden up to Binghamton where he has so far handled a transition to the Eastern League.

Dillon Gee: Gee's stock was very high prior to the 2009 season, but a labrum injury and later a leg injury relegated him to just nine starts last year. This year, however, Gee has shown no ill-effects of either injury and he is having a very strong season in Triple- A Buffalo.

Gee's stock never really took a hit, but his bounce back from injury is a great sign for organizational depth. Gee has returned to his form of commanding the strike zone and successfully pitching to contact. He worked around a rough stretch in early May and has shown the ability to handle the International League and give the big league club another option from the farm.

Ruben Tejada: The Buffalo middle infielder got his first cup of coffee with the big league club to start the season, but since Tejada has steadily improved during his first trip through the International League. It was a slow start to the year for Tejada who hit under .200 through the first two weeks of the season, but a .316 average in May got him on the right track. Already on the 40-man roster, Tejada's turnaround after a slow start in Triple-A and his flexibility up the middle of the infield reinforce his ability to step in on the big league roster when needed.

HOLDING STEADY

Reese Havens: Havens, one of the Mets' three first round picks in the 2008 draft, missed the first month of the season battling back from an oblique injury, but since the injury he has shown why the Mets believe he is a fast riser and potential option at second base in 2011. Havens spent 14 games in St. Lucie upon his return where he hit .281 and hit three home runs. However, the plan was always to get Havens to Double-A Binghamton.

Defensively, he is showing enough progress as a second baseman especially to his left and turning double plays that his glove work combined with his bat could put him on the Ike Davis track to New York come this time next season.

Robert Carson: Carson, like the other young arms in St. Lucie, has endured his ups and downs in the Florida State League but the longer the season goes on, the more consistency the left-hander has developed. His 89-91 MPH fastball and a big league average slider give Carson the tools to mix pitches on both sides of the plate. He still has trouble with walks and his pitch-to-contact approach leads to a lot of base runners, but his ability to bear down and record big outs speaks to his poise to make the crucial pitch when he needs to.

Zach Lutz: The caveat with Lutz's season is that it was interrupted for at least 4 to 6 weeks due to a stress fracture in his left foot. Prior to the injury, Lutz had a terrific start with eight home runs in 126 at-bats with Binghamton. The most important element to Lutz's start was the transition of his raw power to game power. He impressed many with his big home runs and ability to hit to all fields. Lutz is an offensive first prospect who has battled injuries throughout his career since being drafted in 2007. If he can return to his April form upon his return from injury, Lutz will see his stock move upwards.

Lucas Duda: Duda missed two weeks in May due to a hamstring injury, but his return to Binghamton in 2010 has proven to be a very positive step in his development. Duda went through the first two seasons hitting .303 and showing improved power all while maintaining one of the best hitting eyes in the system. Greater carry, loft and backspin on his swing has boosted Duda's home run ability which was the one area holding him back in previous seasons. Prior to missing three weeks in May with the injury, Duda led the Eastern League in RBI, hits, and on-base percentage.

STOCK DOWN

Carlos Guzman: The Binghamton outfielder emerged with a very strong 2009 season in St. Lucie, but Guzman's slip this season is not entirely surprising. He abandoned his approach as a switch-hitter and now exclusively hits left-handed. However, his trouble with the increase in breaking balls and struggle to work counts in his favor has exposed him with the jump to Double-A. Guzman went homerless and tallied just five doubles through the season's first two months and has yet to show he will hit his way out of a slow start.

Scott Shaw: Shaw had a good sophomore season with St. Lucie in 2009, but never found his footing in his first turn through Double-A. Shaw picked up four consecutive victories to start the season, but just one outing went longer than 5 1/3 innings in his first nine starts. He allowed 40 earned runs in his first 42 1/3 innings which sent him to the B-Mets bullpen.

Like last season, Shaw lacks fastball confidence and effectiveness which is tougher to overcome against the more experienced hitters. Shaw turned his 2009 season around once he used his fastball with confidence. He needs to find it again to turn around his role with the B-Mets.

Alonzo Harris: The 20-year-old second baseman had a big year in short-season ball a season ago and looked poised to assert himself in a position of need within the organization. However, that has yet to happen for Harris who, with Savannah, has shown difficulties adapting to more mature pitching in the South Atlantic League. A long swing and shaky plate discipline have prevented Harris from finding consistency at the plate. Harris matched his hit and strikeout totals (46-to-46) through the first two months of the season.

Brad Holt: It is not all bad news for Holt who has shown flashes of his promise and has shown improvements with his curveball and changeup. However, a nagging wrist injury had him begin the season on the disabled list and the result was a very rusty start. Wavering fastball velocity and problems keeping the ball down escalated his ERA to over 13.00 before he rediscovered some of his rhythm in late May. Holt remains a bona fide, top prospect in this organization, but the injury bug and resulting bumps in the road have lengthened Holt's development on the farm. At this time last year, it was though Holt could have been used in New York by the 2010 All-Star Break. A pushed back timeline is a knock to his stock.


Amazin Clubhouse Top Stories

\r\n \r\n\r\nSTOCK UP
\r\n
\r\nWilmer Flores: The organization's top prospect position player which has yet to log big league time is further raising already high confidence around the organization. A return to the South Atlantic League (Low-A) in 2010 has proven to be a wise choice for Flores' development. Flores, who does not turn 19 years old until August, tied his 2009 home run total (five) in the first two months of this season.
\r\n
\r\n Flores, already efficient at making consistent contact, has further improved his patience at the plate and narrowed his strikeout to walk ratio. Added power, strengthening defense at shortstop and a growing understanding of the game have Flores one step closer to his high ceiling projection.
\r\n
\r\nEric Campbell: No hitters were hotter through the first two months of the season than the 2008 8th round pick. Campbell began the season in St. Lucie where he hit .336 through 38 games. Better contact, a more discerning eye for the strike zone and better execution against secondary pitches helped Campbell develop into a more consistent hitter. Campbell has complimentary home run power, but his ability to hit for average and for extra bases convinced the organization to move him up to Binghamton where he has served as a viable infield/outfield utility player. As of June 1, Campbell hit .415 with one home run and 12 RBI through his first 10 Double-A games.
\r\n
\r\nChris Schwinden: Coming into the season, the St. Lucie starting rotation was heralded as the youngest and most talented in the organization and justifiably so. However, Chris Schwinden was overlooked in many regards. Yet, it was the right-hander that stood out in the first few months. Schwinden, a notorious strike-thrower, is armed with a low-90s fastball, a solid slider/curveball combination and a mid-70s changeup that batters find difficult to center. Those tools led to a 3-0 start and 1.83 ERA in 34 1/3 innings. The organization bumped Schwinden up to Binghamton where he has so far handled a transition to the Eastern League.
\r\n
\r\nDillon Gee: Gee's stock was very high prior to the 2009 season, but a labrum injury and later a leg injury relegated him to just nine starts last year. This year, however, Gee has shown no ill-effects of either injury and he is having a very strong season in Triple- A Buffalo.
\r\n
\r\n Gee's stock never really took a hit, but his bounce back from injury is a great sign for organizational depth. Gee has returned to his form of commanding the strike zone and successfully pitching to contact. He worked around a rough stretch in early May and has shown the ability to handle the International League and give the big league club another option from the farm.
\r\n
\r\nRuben Tejada: The Buffalo middle infielder got his first cup of coffee with the big league club to start the season, but since Tejada has steadily improved during his first trip through the International League. It was a slow start to the year for Tejada who hit under .200 through the first two weeks of the season, but a .316 average in May got him on the right track. Already on the 40-man roster, Tejada's turnaround after a slow start in Triple-A and his flexibility up the middle of the infield reinforce his ability to step in on the big league roster when needed.
\r\n
\r\nHOLDING STEADY
\r\n
\r\nReese Havens: Havens, one of the Mets' three first round picks in the 2008 draft, missed the first month of the season battling back from an oblique injury, but since the injury he has shown why the Mets believe he is a fast riser and potential option at second base in 2011. Havens spent 14 games in St. Lucie upon his return where he hit .281 and hit three home runs. However, the plan was always to get Havens to Double-A Binghamton.
\r\n
\r\nDefensively, he is showing enough progress as a second baseman especially to his left and turning double plays that his glove work combined with his bat could put him on the Ike Davis track to New York come this time next season.
\r\n
\r\nRobert Carson: Carson, like the other young arms in St. Lucie, has endured his ups and downs in the Florida State League but the longer the season goes on, the more consistency the left-hander has developed. His 89-91 MPH fastball and a big league average slider give Carson the tools to mix pitches on both sides of the plate. He still has trouble with walks and his pitch-to-contact approach leads to a lot of base runners, but his ability to bear down and record big outs speaks to his poise to make the crucial pitch when he needs to.
\r\n
\r\nZach Lutz: The caveat with Lutz's season is that it was interrupted for at least 4 to 6 weeks due to a stress fracture in his left foot. Prior to the injury, Lutz had a terrific start with eight home runs in 126 at-bats with Binghamton. The most important element to Lutz's start was the transition of his raw power to game power. He impressed many with his big home runs and ability to hit to all fields. Lutz is an offensive first prospect who has battled injuries throughout his career since being drafted in 2007. If he can return to his April form upon his return from injury, Lutz will see his stock move upwards.
\r\n
\r\nLucas Duda: Duda missed two weeks in May due to a hamstring injury, but his return to Binghamton in 2010 has proven to be a very positive step in his development. Duda went through the first two seasons hitting .303 and showing improved power all while maintaining one of the best hitting eyes in the system. Greater carry, loft and backspin on his swing has boosted Duda's home run ability which was the one area holding him back in previous seasons. Prior to missing three weeks in May with the injury, Duda led the Eastern League in RBI, hits, and on-base percentage.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK DOWN
\r\n
\r\nCarlos Guzman: The Binghamton outfielder emerged with a very strong 2009 season in St. Lucie, but Guzman's slip this season is not entirely surprising. He abandoned his approach as a switch-hitter and now exclusively hits left-handed. However, his trouble with the increase in breaking balls and struggle to work counts in his favor has exposed him with the jump to Double-A. Guzman went homerless and tallied just five doubles through the season's first two months and has yet to show he will hit his way out of a slow start.
\r\n
\r\nScott Shaw: Shaw had a good sophomore season with St. Lucie in 2009, but never found his footing in his first turn through Double-A. Shaw picked up four consecutive victories to start the season, but just one outing went longer than 5 1/3 innings in his first nine starts. He allowed 40 earned runs in his first 42 1/3 innings which sent him to the B-Mets bullpen.
\r\n
\r\nLike last season, Shaw lacks fastball confidence and effectiveness which is tougher to overcome against the more experienced hitters. Shaw turned his 2009 season around once he used his fastball with confidence. He needs to find it again to turn around his role with the B-Mets.
\r\n
\r\nAlonzo Harris: The 20-year-old second baseman had a big year in short-season ball a season ago and looked poised to assert himself in a position of need within the organization. However, that has yet to happen for Harris who, with Savannah, has shown difficulties adapting to more mature pitching in the South Atlantic League. A long swing and shaky plate discipline have prevented Harris from finding consistency at the plate. Harris matched his hit and strikeout totals (46-to-46) through the first two months of the season.
\r\n
\r\nBrad Holt: It is not all bad news for Holt who has shown flashes of his promise and has shown improvements with his curveball and changeup. However, a nagging wrist injury had him begin the season on the disabled list and the result was a very rusty start. Wavering fastball velocity and problems keeping the ball down escalated his ERA to over 13.00 before he rediscovered some of his rhythm in late May. Holt remains a bona fide, top prospect in this organization, but the injury bug and resulting bumps in the road have lengthened Holt's development on the farm. At this time last year, it was though Holt could have been used in New York by the 2010 All-Star Break. A pushed back timeline is a knock to his stock.
\r\n
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