MMLN – Midseason Top 50 Review Part II

InsidePitchMagazine.com continues its look back at last fall's Top 50 Prospects List and how the list has held up half way through the 2010 season. In this edition, we take a look at Prospects #40-#31 from last year's list. Did any of these prospects help their stock? Which prospects did we miss on? Look inside for the answers to those questions and more.

40. Rafael Fernandez (SAV/SLU) - .276, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 29 R, 14 XBH, 16 BB, .320 OBP

Fernandez made the list despite an injury-shortened 2009 season because of promise with the bat and athleticism and a strong arm in the outfield. He got off to a slow start in his return to Savannah to begin 2010, hitting just .253 with a .309 OBP with two home runs and 14 RBI in 45 games. However, a roster spot in St. Lucie cleared way for his promotion. So far, Fernandez has delivered. He is hitting .344 with two home runs and eight RBI with an .895 OPS in 18 games in High-A.

Fernandez, who turns 22 in August, has a quick contact stroke with reasonable pop to come. He has speed and the arm for the corner outfield. Just 16 walks in 239 at-bats leave room for some added plate discipline, but it appears Fernandez-now healthy-is starting to put it together.

STOCK: Steady. Fernandez is slowly but surely finding his game. His injury past and start in St. Lucie is worth a wait until he begins next season at 22 years old.

39. Richard Lucas (SLU) - .202, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 38 R, 23 BB, .275 OBP, .612 OPS

Lucas' season has been one of some disappointment considering his average and extremely high strikeout rate (101 K in 302 AB). He has shown flashes of his power and his ability to hit to the opposite field, but Lucas needs work on his pitch recognition and plate discipline. That will mitigate his all-or-nothing tendencies (he has nine additional extra base hits). Lucas, 21, has shown flashes of his promise but his swing gets long at times which combined with his aforementioned issues is a bad recipe in the Florida State League.

STOCK: Down. Lucas stock is down simply because he has not responded to the challenge of playing in St. Lucie as hoped. Lucas saw minimal time with Savannah in 2008 and 2009 and was pressed into action in St. Lucie in 2010. He has yet to show he's ready for a promotion next season while Jefry Marte comes up behind him. It's a tough situation for the former third round pick.

38. Josh Stinson (BNG) – 7-1, 3.18 ERA, 27 G, 9 GS, 87.2 IP, 59 K, 34 BB, .233 OBA

Stinson has been arguably the best surprise in the entire system this year and is showing we were right to stick by his position in the Top 50 all these years. Simultaneously, he is showing the Mets he was worth standing by throughout his up and down seasons. Stinson was excellent as a reliever this season and is showing his transition back to the rotation is paying off from that work. He is 5-0 with a 3.17 ERA in nine starts with a strong 1.95 GB/FB ratio. A big right-hander who has regained the feel for his entire repertoire is having a resurgent year that has him looking like a future big league option.

STOCK: Up. It's not even debatable. Stinson has been one of the best pitchers in the organization this year, exemplified the quality of his game and his production.

37. Carlos Guzman (BNG) - .259, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 19 R, 5 2B, 20 BB, .352 OBP

As a late bloomer coming off a very strong year in St. Lucie, Guzman was a wild card in last year's Top 50. He has backed up that premise with a disappointing 47 games before going down with a knee injury. Notorious for his ugly splits as a switch-hitter, Guzman moved to the left side of the plate full-time in 2010 but it didn't matter. As a free swinger with very limited plate discipline, Guzman has so far been eaten alive by Eastern League pitching. He does not work deep into counts and struggles against quality breaking stuff.

STOCK: Down. Guzman's ranking was a shot in the dark to see if he could hack it against higher-level pitching. So far, he has installed little confidence that he can.

36. Armando Rodriguez (SAV) – 5-6, 3.12 ERA, 19 GS, 101 IP, 76 H, 89 K, 35 BB, .207 OBA

Rodriguez has certainly pitched better than his record indicates. Rodriguez has been successful against Sally League hitters because of the improvement of his slider and the command of his fastball. Simply put, he is doing a good job of missing the fat part of the bat. He is striking more hitters and walking fewer as the season goes on which exemplifies the adjustments he had made. Rodriguez, a late-bloomer, will be 23 before the 2011 season starts, but he has shown why organizational coaches liked him so much before the season.

STOCK: Up. Rodriguez is having a very fine year but there is still much more to accomplish. His move to the Florida State League next season will hinge on the development of his changeup as a third pitch, but his 2010 season is a move in the right direction.

35. Eric Beaulac (SLU) – 5-2, 3.48 ERA, 15 GS, 77.2 IP, 70 H, 53 K, 40 BB, .234 OBA

The St. Lucie starting rotation has not lived up to its preseason expectations but Beaulac is at least showing good in-season adjustments. He has great command, trust in his changeup and hasn't surrendered that much contact through the course of the season. Just 70 hits and two home runs allowed have lessened the damage. However, a low strikeout rate and slim K/BB ratio could make things difficult as he moves up. Beaulac is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA since June 1 (eight starts) with 34 hits allowed in his last 44 innings and a 38/17 K/BB ratio.

STOCK: Steady. Beaulac looks poised for a strong finish to the season. Improvements in his repertoire are a good sign as is his increasing groundball ratio. His numbers do not jump of the page, but Beaulac is exceeding preseason expectations.

34. Ryan Coultas (BNG) – N/A

Coultas underwent a procedure to fix up his labrum last June, but has yet to return to regular action in over a year. Coultas took the mound during the spring training to begin his rehab, but was then set back and plateaued. His timeline remains TBD.

STOCK: Down. Coultas was a promising story line through the first half of 2009. He was hitting 93-94 MPH with the fastball and had the looks of a reclamation project that could be able to help the big league team with his velocity. That, however, seems more unlikely for the 28-year-old who has yet to take the ball in a regular season game this season.

33. Darrell Ceciliani (BRK) - .383, 0 HR, 16 RBI, 12 XBH, 28 R, 46 H, 11 SB, .435 OBP

To some surprise, Ceciliani began the season in Extended Spring Training and went to Brooklyn rather than start the year in Savannah. It is paying off for the second-year center fielder who is simply raking in the New York-Penn League. He is showing excellent bat control and contact skills. He will not hit for power at this stage, but his pitch recognition is very strong and he simply knows how to put the ball in play. He does all that while playing plus defense in center field.

STOCK: Up. Ceciliani should do well in the New York-Penn League this season given his skill set, so the real challenge will come next season in a full-season league. Nevertheless, Ceciliani began his Brooklyn tenure fresh off a good stint in Extended Spring Training and should continue to improve during the season.

32. Sean Ratliff (SLU/BNG) - .302, 13 HR, 55 RBI, 53 R, 28 2B, 10 SB, .352 OBP, .862 OPS

Ratliff is another promising story line this season on the farm. Ratliff was good in his start in St. Lucie, hitting .275 with five home runs, 30 RBI and a .331 OBP in 57 games. However, a move up to Binghamton has come with a big surge. Ratliff is hitting .349 with eight home runs, 25 RBI and a .388 OBP in 31 games with the B-Mets. The reason? Ratliff has shortened his swing, decreased the uppercut and has much better coverage on the outer third. He is now using the whole field with greater proficiency and his raw power is really taking hold.

STOCK: Up. Ratliff was placed in this spot in the fall with the belief that he could increase his stock with the aforementioned adjustments. He has done all that while showing better than expected athleticism and strong outfield defense in left field and serviceable work in center field.

31. Jefry Marte (SAV) - .259, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 40 R, 82 H, 17 2B, 30 BB, .331 OBP, .727 OPS

Marte returned to Savannah this season and has grown stronger as the season has gone on. Marte, who will turn 19 next month, is enjoying his best month in July. He is hitting .348 with three home runs and 14 RBI in 17 games after hitting .233 through the first two months. Marte bat speed is his weapon against fastballs, but he is finally starting to make adjustments to secondary pitches. A strong finish to the season will give him some momentum in 2011 when the he will enter a very telling year in the Florida State League.

STOCK: Up. Marte is finally coming into his own offensively though he still needs a lot of work with the glove. Marte is still very young with a lot of room to grow. He's on the right track, now it's about continuing it.

\r\n \r\n\r\n40. Rafael Fernandez (SAV/SLU) - .276, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 29 R, 14 XBH, 16 BB, .320 OBP
\r\n
\r\nFernandez made the list despite an injury-shortened 2009 season because of promise with the bat and athleticism and a strong arm in the outfield. He got off to a slow start in his return to Savannah to begin 2010, hitting just .253 with a .309 OBP with two home runs and 14 RBI in 45 games. However, a roster spot in St. Lucie cleared way for his promotion. So far, Fernandez has delivered. He is hitting .344 with two home runs and eight RBI with an .895 OPS in 18 games in High-A.
\r\n
\r\nFernandez, who turns 22 in August, has a quick contact stroke with reasonable pop to come. He has speed and the arm for the corner outfield. Just 16 walks in 239 at-bats leave room for some added plate discipline, but it appears Fernandez-now healthy-is starting to put it together.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Steady. Fernandez is slowly but surely finding his game. His injury past and start in St. Lucie is worth a wait until he begins next season at 22 years old.
\r\n
\r\n39. Richard Lucas (SLU) - .202, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 38 R, 23 BB, .275 OBP, .612 OPS
\r\n
\r\nLucas' season has been one of some disappointment considering his average and extremely high strikeout rate (101 K in 302 AB). He has shown flashes of his power and his ability to hit to the opposite field, but Lucas needs work on his pitch recognition and plate discipline. That will mitigate his all-or-nothing tendencies (he has nine additional extra base hits). Lucas, 21, has shown flashes of his promise but his swing gets long at times which combined with his aforementioned issues is a bad recipe in the Florida State League.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Down. Lucas stock is down simply because he has not responded to the challenge of playing in St. Lucie as hoped. Lucas saw minimal time with Savannah in 2008 and 2009 and was pressed into action in St. Lucie in 2010. He has yet to show he's ready for a promotion next season while Jefry Marte comes up behind him. It's a tough situation for the former third round pick.
\r\n
\r\n38. Josh Stinson (BNG) – 7-1, 3.18 ERA, 27 G, 9 GS, 87.2 IP, 59 K, 34 BB, .233 OBA
\r\n
\r\nStinson has been arguably the best surprise in the entire system this year and is showing we were right to stick by his position in the Top 50 all these years. Simultaneously, he is showing the Mets he was worth standing by throughout his up and down seasons. Stinson was excellent as a reliever this season and is showing his transition back to the rotation is paying off from that work. He is 5-0 with a 3.17 ERA in nine starts with a strong 1.95 GB/FB ratio. A big right-hander who has regained the feel for his entire repertoire is having a resurgent year that has him looking like a future big league option.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Up. It's not even debatable. Stinson has been one of the best pitchers in the organization this year, exemplified the quality of his game and his production.
\r\n
\r\n37. Carlos Guzman (BNG) - .259, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 19 R, 5 2B, 20 BB, .352 OBP
\r\n
\r\nAs a late bloomer coming off a very strong year in St. Lucie, Guzman was a wild card in last year's Top 50. He has backed up that premise with a disappointing 47 games before going down with a knee injury. Notorious for his ugly splits as a switch-hitter, Guzman moved to the left side of the plate full-time in 2010 but it didn't matter. As a free swinger with very limited plate discipline, Guzman has so far been eaten alive by Eastern League pitching. He does not work deep into counts and struggles against quality breaking stuff.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Down. Guzman's ranking was a shot in the dark to see if he could hack it against higher-level pitching. So far, he has installed little confidence that he can.
\r\n
\r\n36. Armando Rodriguez (SAV) – 5-6, 3.12 ERA, 19 GS, 101 IP, 76 H, 89 K, 35 BB, .207 OBA
\r\n
\r\nRodriguez has certainly pitched better than his record indicates. Rodriguez has been successful against Sally League hitters because of the improvement of his slider and the command of his fastball. Simply put, he is doing a good job of missing the fat part of the bat. He is striking more hitters and walking fewer as the season goes on which exemplifies the adjustments he had made. Rodriguez, a late-bloomer, will be 23 before the 2011 season starts, but he has shown why organizational coaches liked him so much before the season.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Up. Rodriguez is having a very fine year but there is still much more to accomplish. His move to the Florida State League next season will hinge on the development of his changeup as a third pitch, but his 2010 season is a move in the right direction.
\r\n
\r\n35. Eric Beaulac (SLU) – 5-2, 3.48 ERA, 15 GS, 77.2 IP, 70 H, 53 K, 40 BB, .234 OBA
\r\n
\r\nThe St. Lucie starting rotation has not lived up to its preseason expectations but Beaulac is at least showing good in-season adjustments. He has great command, trust in his changeup and hasn't surrendered that much contact through the course of the season. Just 70 hits and two home runs allowed have lessened the damage. However, a low strikeout rate and slim K/BB ratio could make things difficult as he moves up. Beaulac is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA since June 1 (eight starts) with 34 hits allowed in his last 44 innings and a 38/17 K/BB ratio.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Steady. Beaulac looks poised for a strong finish to the season. Improvements in his repertoire are a good sign as is his increasing groundball ratio. His numbers do not jump of the page, but Beaulac is exceeding preseason expectations.
\r\n
\r\n34. Ryan Coultas (BNG) – N/A
\r\n
\r\nCoultas underwent a procedure to fix up his labrum last June, but has yet to return to regular action in over a year. Coultas took the mound during the spring training to begin his rehab, but was then set back and plateaued. His timeline remains TBD.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Down. Coultas was a promising story line through the first half of 2009. He was hitting 93-94 MPH with the fastball and had the looks of a reclamation project that could be able to help the big league team with his velocity. That, however, seems more unlikely for the 28-year-old who has yet to take the ball in a regular season game this season.
\r\n
\r\n33. Darrell Ceciliani (BRK) - .383, 0 HR, 16 RBI, 12 XBH, 28 R, 46 H, 11 SB, .435 OBP
\r\n
\r\nTo some surprise, Ceciliani began the season in Extended Spring Training and went to Brooklyn rather than start the year in Savannah. It is paying off for the second-year center fielder who is simply raking in the New York-Penn League. He is showing excellent bat control and contact skills. He will not hit for power at this stage, but his pitch recognition is very strong and he simply knows how to put the ball in play. He does all that while playing plus defense in center field.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Up. Ceciliani should do well in the New York-Penn League this season given his skill set, so the real challenge will come next season in a full-season league. Nevertheless, Ceciliani began his Brooklyn tenure fresh off a good stint in Extended Spring Training and should continue to improve during the season.
\r\n
\r\n32. Sean Ratliff (SLU/BNG) - .302, 13 HR, 55 RBI, 53 R, 28 2B, 10 SB, .352 OBP, .862 OPS
\r\n
\r\nRatliff is another promising story line this season on the farm. Ratliff was good in his start in St. Lucie, hitting .275 with five home runs, 30 RBI and a .331 OBP in 57 games. However, a move up to Binghamton has come with a big surge. Ratliff is hitting .349 with eight home runs, 25 RBI and a .388 OBP in 31 games with the B-Mets. The reason? Ratliff has shortened his swing, decreased the uppercut and has much better coverage on the outer third. He is now using the whole field with greater proficiency and his raw power is really taking hold.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Up. Ratliff was placed in this spot in the fall with the belief that he could increase his stock with the aforementioned adjustments. He has done all that while showing better than expected athleticism and strong outfield defense in left field and serviceable work in center field.
\r\n
\r\n31. Jefry Marte (SAV) - .259, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 40 R, 82 H, 17 2B, 30 BB, .331 OBP, .727 OPS
\r\n
\r\nMarte returned to Savannah this season and has grown stronger as the season has gone on. Marte, who will turn 19 next month, is enjoying his best month in July. He is hitting .348 with three home runs and 14 RBI in 17 games after hitting .233 through the first two months. Marte bat speed is his weapon against fastballs, but he is finally starting to make adjustments to secondary pitches. A strong finish to the season will give him some momentum in 2011 when the he will enter a very telling year in the Florida State League.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Up. Marte is finally coming into his own offensively though he still needs a lot of work with the glove. Marte is still very young with a lot of room to grow. He's on the right track, now it's about continuing it.
\r\n
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