MMLN – Midseason Top 50 Review Part IV

InsidePitchMagazine.com continues its review of last fall's Top 50 Prospects list. This time the focus is on prospects #20-#11. This group of prospects has been a mixed bag. Prospects have either improved their stock, watched their stock hold steady, slip or simply missed time to injury. Look inside to see how these ten prospects stack up.

20. Scott Shaw (BNG) – 4-6, 7.97 ERA, 21 G, 12, GS, 70 IP, 43 K, 36 BB, .316 OBA

It has been a disastrous start for Shaw during his first trip in Double-A. He simply has not figured out a way to beat Eastern League hitters and has pitched timidly. His stuff has not been strong enough, led by a fastball that has stayed in the mid-80s and inconsistent command of the slider. It is not a mechanical issue for Shaw who has a very clean repeatable delivery, it's that lacking arm speed and a fastball he cannot throw by hitters. That has allowed advanced hitters to simply tee off. Shaw was moved to the Binghamton bullpen where he has still been rocked in nine appearances.

STOCK: Down. Shaw was a miss. He was inconsistent with St. Lucie in 2009 due to a lack of trust with the fastball. That issue carried over in the beginning of the season and everything just snowballed on him from there.

19. Lucas Duda (BNG/BUF) - .292, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 47 R, 25 2B, 42 BB, .394 OBP, .958 OPS

Duda's power and production have exploded this season and it was evident why early in the season. An adjustment with his grip and height of the bat in his stance and a less upright approach has made Duda much quicker to the ball and increased his bat speed. He developed the proper uppercut to turn his doubles to home runs and improved his ability to hit for power beyond the pull side, which he struggled to do before. Duda hit .286 with six home runs and 34 RBI in 45 games with Double-A, and has since exploded in Triple-A for a .302 average, 10 home runs and 29 RBI in 31 games.

Duda has been marginally better against left-handers this season, but he is seeing the ball better from southpaw pitching and that's a step in the right direction. Meanwhile, he is crushing right-handed pitching (.338, 7 HR, 21 RBI).

STOCK: Up. I won't go as far as to say Duda cemented his status as a top prospect, but the swing adjustments and resulting productivity are helping Duda reach his potential. The tough splits against left-handed and right-handed pitching remains ugly, but what Duda provides in left field defensively combined with his emerging power is giving the Mets power options on the farm.

18.: Robert Carson (SLU/BNG) – 7-7, 4.45 ERA, 18 GS, 97 IP, 76 K, 36 BB, .289 OBA

It was a difficult start to the year for Robert Carson who was knocked around pretty good during his first month in St. Lucie. However, Carson found his consistency in June and early July. He won three of his last four decisions and pitched to a sub-3.50 ERA in that span. That prompted a mid-July promotion to Binghamton where his first start was rough (7 ER in 4 IP) but better in his second (4 ER in 6 IP). The most notable difference in Carson this season is his fastball velocity. Carson's fastball sits 92-94 MPH and touches 95 MPH regularly early in starts. His slider is a slight above big league average, but he will need his changeup to find more success as a starter from Double-A and up.

STOCK: Steady. It wasn't too surprising to see Carson become the first St. Lucie starter to get a promotion. He was rarely dominant in the Florida State League, but has a chance to open more eyes with his velocity in the Eastern League.

17. Eric Niesen (BNG) – 4-4, 3.81 ERA, 13 GS, 54.1 IP, 39 K, 45 BB, .231 OBP

Niesen has endured a tough season having roughly a month taken away following a freak accident on the field in which he was concussed on a throw down to second. More importantly though, Niesen has struggled with the command of his slider and has paid for it. The slider is his finishing pitch and without hitters have sat on the fastball. Nevertheless, he hasn't given up that much contact (45 hits, 3 HR allowed), but has not been as effective as he can be because of the lack of a consistent second pitch.

STOCK: Steady. Niesen's slider hasn't been there for him at times this season, but he is still throwing 89-93 MPH from the left side and when his slider is on, it is a strikeout pitch. He still has the look of a guy who can help at the highest level and scouts I've talked to agree.

16. Kyle Allen (SLU) – 6-5, 5.21 ERA, 16 GS, 86.1 IP, 49 K, 46 BB, .275 OBA

Allen has endured an up and down season, but the numbers do not tell the whole story of the 20-year-old's season. It's not a stuff problem with Allen who now sits 91-93 MPH with his fastball and his changeup showing its plus potential, but rather it's a feel for sequencing and building a rhythm through the lineup that has held Allen back this season. His two-seam fastball and changeup both have a lot of movement. But, neither has enticed the kind of strike zone expansion as lower levels and he isn't finishing hitters when ahead in the count.

STOCK: Steady. Like I said, the stuff is there Allen. It's not the quality of pitches that has caused Allen's troubles, it's how and when he's using his pitches. It's a definitive development season for Allen, one of the youngest players in the Florida State League.

15. Zach Lutz (BNG) - .262, 8 HR, 17 RBI, 23 R, 6 2B, 24 BB, .396 OBP

Zach was off to a very good start to the season before landing on the disabled list for a little over two months with a broken bone in his foot. With Binghamton, Lutz demonstrated the very good plate discipline and raw power to all fields that gives him one of the best upsides with the bat in the system. Lutz can work the count, extend at-bats and drive it out of the ballpark with ease. He remains defensively limited, but can bring significant value to the system with the bat when healthy.

STOCK: Steady. There is a case for Lutz's stock to go up, but the injury was a significant setback for a player with a checkered history of foot and lower leg injuries. The hope is that Lutz, who is currently rehabbing in the Gulf Coast League, will come back for a strong, healthy finish to the season.

14. Brant Rustich (GCL) – 7.36 ERA, 7 G, 7.1 IP, 6 K, 4 BB, .200 OBP

Rustich missed all of the first half of the season plus a few weeks as he battled his way back from arm and elbow problems. It was a lengthy rehab for Rustich who has continually battled injuries throughout his tenure with the Mets. Rustich made seven rehab appearances in the Gulf Coast League and should join the St. Lucie bullpen very soon.

STOCK: Steady. And that's a tough rating. It would be easy to drop Rustich because of his injury and because he will turn 25 in January. Nevertheless, Rustich can still be a fast mover when healthy and that is something scouts and the organization is waiting for. I'm willing to give him one more shot to stay healthy and meet his potential.

13. Dillon Gee (BUF) – 9-5, 4.51 ERA, 19 GS, 111.2 IP, 110 K, 27 BB, .256 OBA

Gee was very sharp in April and appears to have rediscovered that rhythm in July. In between were two inconsistent months, but despite being subjected to the long ball (15 HR allowed), Gee's peripherals are okay. He is walking just 2.1 batters per nine innings and is enjoying the best strikeout ratio of his career. However, he can still be very hittable when is over the plate too much. Gee is a command pitcher who works best on the edges of the strike zone and pumping his changeup.

STOCK: Down. Gee is having a solid year and at least putting himself in the discussion to get a look in New York before the season is over. He hasn't been overpowering, but his showing good signs overall in 28 starts with Buffalo over the last two seasons.

12. Tobi Stoner (BUF) – 5-7, 5.51 ERA, 18 GS, 101.1 IP, 74 K, 34 BB, .299 OBP

There is no way around, it's been a very difficult season for Stoner. Stoner's ERA has been around 5.00 and above in every month this season and he is giving up a lot of contact (122 hits allowed). Simply put, he's getting tagged. Stoner's walk ratio isn't terribly high, but he is in the zone with his 89-92 MPH fastball and isn't getting the swing and miss rate on his breaking pitches like he was at lower levels.

STOCK: Down. Earlier in the season Stoner was the first arm called up from the minors when an extra arm was needed. That is no longer the case given his difficult year. A resurgent second half will be important for the start of next season.

11. Jeurys Familia (SLU) – 2-6, 6.38 ERA, 16 GS, 73.1 IP, 71 K, 58 BB, .259 OBP

Familia is impressing scouts with higher velocity this season as he has touched 97 MPH with the fastball. He has a very good 1.59 GB/FB ratio and has allowed just three home runs this season. However, the walk total is very high. He has not only struggled with his overall command, but his feel for the slider and the changeup have not been there this season. The fastball velocity is a great sign, but the lack of secondary stuff command is disappointing.

STOCK: Down. It's only a slip because the secondary stuff hasn't been as good as last year when it wasn't even particularly strong. A better second half would be a welcomed sign from the young right-hander.

\r\n \r\n\r\n20. Scott Shaw (BNG) – 4-6, 7.97 ERA, 21 G, 12, GS, 70 IP, 43 K, 36 BB, .316 OBA
\r\n
\r\nIt has been a disastrous start for Shaw during his first trip in Double-A. He simply has not figured out a way to beat Eastern League hitters and has pitched timidly. His stuff has not been strong enough, led by a fastball that has stayed in the mid-80s and inconsistent command of the slider. It is not a mechanical issue for Shaw who has a very clean repeatable delivery, it's that lacking arm speed and a fastball he cannot throw by hitters. That has allowed advanced hitters to simply tee off. Shaw was moved to the Binghamton bullpen where he has still been rocked in nine appearances.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Down. Shaw was a miss. He was inconsistent with St. Lucie in 2009 due to a lack of trust with the fastball. That issue carried over in the beginning of the season and everything just snowballed on him from there.
\r\n
\r\n19. Lucas Duda (BNG/BUF) - .292, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 47 R, 25 2B, 42 BB, .394 OBP, .958 OPS
\r\n
\r\nDuda's power and production have exploded this season and it was evident why early in the season. An adjustment with his grip and height of the bat in his stance and a less upright approach has made Duda much quicker to the ball and increased his bat speed. He developed the proper uppercut to turn his doubles to home runs and improved his ability to hit for power beyond the pull side, which he struggled to do before. Duda hit .286 with six home runs and 34 RBI in 45 games with Double-A, and has since exploded in Triple-A for a .302 average, 10 home runs and 29 RBI in 31 games.
\r\n
\r\nDuda has been marginally better against left-handers this season, but he is seeing the ball better from southpaw pitching and that's a step in the right direction. Meanwhile, he is crushing right-handed pitching (.338, 7 HR, 21 RBI).
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Up. I won't go as far as to say Duda cemented his status as a top prospect, but the swing adjustments and resulting productivity are helping Duda reach his potential. The tough splits against left-handed and right-handed pitching remains ugly, but what Duda provides in left field defensively combined with his emerging power is giving the Mets power options on the farm.
\r\n
\r\n18.: Robert Carson (SLU/BNG) – 7-7, 4.45 ERA, 18 GS, 97 IP, 76 K, 36 BB, .289 OBA
\r\n
\r\nIt was a difficult start to the year for Robert Carson who was knocked around pretty good during his first month in St. Lucie. However, Carson found his consistency in June and early July. He won three of his last four decisions and pitched to a sub-3.50 ERA in that span. That prompted a mid-July promotion to Binghamton where his first start was rough (7 ER in 4 IP) but better in his second (4 ER in 6 IP). The most notable difference in Carson this season is his fastball velocity. Carson's fastball sits 92-94 MPH and touches 95 MPH regularly early in starts. His slider is a slight above big league average, but he will need his changeup to find more success as a starter from Double-A and up.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Steady. It wasn't too surprising to see Carson become the first St. Lucie starter to get a promotion. He was rarely dominant in the Florida State League, but has a chance to open more eyes with his velocity in the Eastern League.
\r\n
\r\n17. Eric Niesen (BNG) – 4-4, 3.81 ERA, 13 GS, 54.1 IP, 39 K, 45 BB, .231 OBP
\r\n
\r\nNiesen has endured a tough season having roughly a month taken away following a freak accident on the field in which he was concussed on a throw down to second. More importantly though, Niesen has struggled with the command of his slider and has paid for it. The slider is his finishing pitch and without hitters have sat on the fastball. Nevertheless, he hasn't given up that much contact (45 hits, 3 HR allowed), but has not been as effective as he can be because of the lack of a consistent second pitch.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Steady. Niesen's slider hasn't been there for him at times this season, but he is still throwing 89-93 MPH from the left side and when his slider is on, it is a strikeout pitch. He still has the look of a guy who can help at the highest level and scouts I've talked to agree.
\r\n
\r\n16. Kyle Allen (SLU) – 6-5, 5.21 ERA, 16 GS, 86.1 IP, 49 K, 46 BB, .275 OBA
\r\n
\r\nAllen has endured an up and down season, but the numbers do not tell the whole story of the 20-year-old's season. It's not a stuff problem with Allen who now sits 91-93 MPH with his fastball and his changeup showing its plus potential, but rather it's a feel for sequencing and building a rhythm through the lineup that has held Allen back this season. His two-seam fastball and changeup both have a lot of movement. But, neither has enticed the kind of strike zone expansion as lower levels and he isn't finishing hitters when ahead in the count.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Steady. Like I said, the stuff is there Allen. It's not the quality of pitches that has caused Allen's troubles, it's how and when he's using his pitches. It's a definitive development season for Allen, one of the youngest players in the Florida State League.
\r\n
\r\n15. Zach Lutz (BNG) - .262, 8 HR, 17 RBI, 23 R, 6 2B, 24 BB, .396 OBP
\r\n
\r\nZach was off to a very good start to the season before landing on the disabled list for a little over two months with a broken bone in his foot. With Binghamton, Lutz demonstrated the very good plate discipline and raw power to all fields that gives him one of the best upsides with the bat in the system. Lutz can work the count, extend at-bats and drive it out of the ballpark with ease. He remains defensively limited, but can bring significant value to the system with the bat when healthy.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Steady. There is a case for Lutz's stock to go up, but the injury was a significant setback for a player with a checkered history of foot and lower leg injuries. The hope is that Lutz, who is currently rehabbing in the Gulf Coast League, will come back for a strong, healthy finish to the season.
\r\n
\r\n14. Brant Rustich (GCL) – 7.36 ERA, 7 G, 7.1 IP, 6 K, 4 BB, .200 OBP
\r\n
\r\nRustich missed all of the first half of the season plus a few weeks as he battled his way back from arm and elbow problems. It was a lengthy rehab for Rustich who has continually battled injuries throughout his tenure with the Mets. Rustich made seven rehab appearances in the Gulf Coast League and should join the St. Lucie bullpen very soon.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Steady. And that's a tough rating. It would be easy to drop Rustich because of his injury and because he will turn 25 in January. Nevertheless, Rustich can still be a fast mover when healthy and that is something scouts and the organization is waiting for. I'm willing to give him one more shot to stay healthy and meet his potential.
\r\n
\r\n13. Dillon Gee (BUF) – 9-5, 4.51 ERA, 19 GS, 111.2 IP, 110 K, 27 BB, .256 OBA
\r\n
\r\nGee was very sharp in April and appears to have rediscovered that rhythm in July. In between were two inconsistent months, but despite being subjected to the long ball (15 HR allowed), Gee's peripherals are okay. He is walking just 2.1 batters per nine innings and is enjoying the best strikeout ratio of his career. However, he can still be very hittable when is over the plate too much. Gee is a command pitcher who works best on the edges of the strike zone and pumping his changeup.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Down. Gee is having a solid year and at least putting himself in the discussion to get a look in New York before the season is over. He hasn't been overpowering, but his showing good signs overall in 28 starts with Buffalo over the last two seasons.
\r\n
\r\n12. Tobi Stoner (BUF) – 5-7, 5.51 ERA, 18 GS, 101.1 IP, 74 K, 34 BB, .299 OBP
\r\n
\r\nThere is no way around, it's been a very difficult season for Stoner. Stoner's ERA has been around 5.00 and above in every month this season and he is giving up a lot of contact (122 hits allowed). Simply put, he's getting tagged. Stoner's walk ratio isn't terribly high, but he is in the zone with his 89-92 MPH fastball and isn't getting the swing and miss rate on his breaking pitches like he was at lower levels.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Down. Earlier in the season Stoner was the first arm called up from the minors when an extra arm was needed. That is no longer the case given his difficult year. A resurgent second half will be important for the start of next season.
\r\n
\r\n11. Jeurys Familia (SLU) – 2-6, 6.38 ERA, 16 GS, 73.1 IP, 71 K, 58 BB, .259 OBP
\r\n
\r\nFamilia is impressing scouts with higher velocity this season as he has touched 97 MPH with the fastball. He has a very good 1.59 GB/FB ratio and has allowed just three home runs this season. However, the walk total is very high. He has not only struggled with his overall command, but his feel for the slider and the changeup have not been there this season. The fastball velocity is a great sign, but the lack of secondary stuff command is disappointing.
\r\n
\r\nSTOCK: Down. It's only a slip because the secondary stuff hasn't been as good as last year when it wasn't even particularly strong. A better second half would be a welcomed sign from the young right-hander.
\r\n
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