What are the odds of trading...?

It's inevitable. Every season, no matter how a team is doing, there is talk of trades. For the Phillies, there has been a lot of "chatter" as they call it in the international intelligence community. Could some of that chatter turn into reality? The question is "What are the odds of trading (insert player here)?

We've taken a look at the Phillies roster and tried to project who may be a former Phillie before too long. Each player has been given a percentage to show what the odds are that they will be traded during the season by the Phillies. Obviously, the higher the number, the greater chance that player will be on his way out of town. Keep in mind too, that if a deal is made, it could greatly change the odds of other players being dealt. We've assigned different percentages to each player in order to show one player slightly more likely to be traded than another.

  • Placido Polanco has had his name surface in various trade scenarios ever since he accepted arbitration. Keep an eye on other team's injuries and on David Bell's back. Those are two issues that could definitely affect Polanco. Possible destinations: St.Louis, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 60%.
  • Marlon Byrd might have been dealt by now had he not injured his finger. The injury is worse than originally thought and has put his status in limbo. When the injury was thought to be just a dislocated finger, the Rockies were constant suitors for Byrd. Now, the talk has quieted, but if he recovers and starts to hit at AAA, expect things to get noisy. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 58%.
  • Ryan Howard is the guy that nobody wants to trade, but may wind up dealt anyway. Pittsburgh and Washington have serious interest. Can you imagine the fans reaction to a guy compared to Willie Stargell if Howard wound up in Pittsburgh? Can you imagine the Phillies having to play against Howard 19 times a year if he wound up in Washington? Ouch! Percent chance that he'll be traded: 55%.
  • Vicente Padilla could be the odd man out in the starting rotation. The Phillies fall more and more in love with Gavin Floyd every time he takes the mound. If Padilla gets healthy and the right deal presents itself, the Phillies could ship Padilla elsewhere, dumping the concerns about his long-term health and his focus on the game. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 48%.
  • Jason Michaels is one of those guys who is seemingly just waiting for his chance. There are plenty of teams interested in Michaels, but the Phillies have been slow to deal him. Michaels, Lofton and Byrd are strongly linked to each other in the trade market (and in the health market) and it's not out of the question that one of them is a goner. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 45%.
  • Pedro Liriano is a newcomer and the Phillies like his potential. There isn't a great clamor of excitement from other clubs to get him, but he's the kind of guy that's a throw-in for a package deal. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 44%.
  • Aaron Fultz is in the same class as Liriano. Since he's a lefty though, the odds that the Phillies would deal him are a little lower. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 42%.
  • Tim Worrell has generally been pretty good for the Phillies, but they're overloaded in setup men. Like the linking of center fielders, Worrell, Terry Adams and Ryan Madson are seemingly linked in their roles with the Phillies. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 40%.
  • Terry Adams is part of that setup man situation, but the Phillies seem to have a certain attraction for him. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 39%.
  • Kenny Lofton is a hamstring injury waiting to happen. His odds change based on his health and where the Phillies are in the standings. They also depend on Jason Michaels and Marlon Byrd. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 38%.
  • Cory Lidle is the perfect sort of pitcher for Citizens Bank Park. He keeps the ball down and he eats innings. The Phillies don't figure that he's a great pitcher, but he probably has more value to the Phillies than to a lot of other clubs, because of the park they play in. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 35%.
  • Chase Utley should be playing everyday, but the Polanco situation changed all of that. There have been plenty of offers from other clubs, but the Phillies have turned them all down. If the right package or player is dangled, Utley could leave town. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 33%.
  • Rheal Cormier is a lefty and the Phillies are grateful for what he's brought to the club over the past few seasons. If Aaron Fultz emerges into more than a lefty specialist, Cormier could be expendable. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 30%.
  • Randy Wolf has a pretty hefty contract, but has put up decent numbers. He's still a bit of a question mark and hasn't done quite as much as the Phillies might have thought. A change of scenery may be a good thing for Wolf. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 27%.
  • David Bell generally does a good job. His defense is suffering with three errors through the first nine games this season. His health issues are the biggest issue and there are a lot of teams that won't even ask about him because of his bad back. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 25%.
  • Mike Lieberthal has a lot of detractors in the organization and fan base. The question is, who takes over behind the plate? Plus, does another team want his contract and even if those questions are answered, would Lieberthal okay a deal. He's already said that he would accept a deal to Los Angeles. Keep that in mind. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 22%.
  • Ryan Madson is young and the Phillies like his long-term potential. The idea of converting him back into a starter is still a possibility, as is the chance of making him a closer. It wouldn't be easy, but he could be had. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 21%
  • Bobby Abreu has a big contract, but at the end of the season, his numbers are always strong. Does he dog it in the field at times? Well, let's just say that he won't be getting the nickname Charlie Hustle anytime soon. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 19%.
  • Jon Lieber is liking the job of staff ace. He has flourished in his first two starts and has developed a lot of respect from other team members in the clubhouse. He's not the prototypical ace, but he's the closest we've got - for now. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 18%.
  • Brett Myers has increased his trade value with his first two starts, but as his value has gone up, the Phillies interest in dealing him has gone down. He appears comfortable with new pitching coach Rich Dubee and manager Charlie Manuel and has responded to the confidence that they showed in him by giving him the number two spot in the rotation. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 15%.
  • Billy Wagner has talked about the possibility that this will be his last season. That's not likely, but it's not out of the question. One thing is for sure; his contract is up after this season. If the Phillies would happen to fall out of contention, expect his percentage to sky-rocket. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 14%.
  • Jimmy Rollins can't be a free agent until after next season. He could get a big arbitration reward if things go that way, but it's also possible that the Phillies will sign him to a long-term deal after the season. Shortstops aren't easy to come by and there aren't any great alternatives in the minors. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 13%.
  • Pat Burrell is on track to put up monster numbers. There are still some lingering concerns and they'll last for a while, until he proves he can produce over a longer period of time. He started strong last season, but fell apart as the season progressed. If he continues to hit, the Phils won't want to deal him and if he doesn't other teams won't want his contract. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 12%.
  • Gavin Floyd is the future ace of the staff. With Cole Hamels struggles in the minors, the Phils won't move Floyd unless they are completely overwhelmed by a deal. It's much more likely that Padilla, Wolf, Lieber or Lidle would be dealt before Floyd would go anywhere. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 10%.
  • Jim Thome isn't going anywhare. Somebody would have to so greatly overpay to get him that it would be ridiculous. Yes, he's blocking Ryan Howard, but Thome is a sure thing. As good as Howard is, he's not Jim Thome. Percent chance that he'll be traded: 5%.

  • Philly Baseball Insider Top Stories