Simulation: LF Wall Theory Comes Up Short

In what would be a nightmare scenario for the Phillies, a computer simulation shows some interesting homerun numbers for the Phillies in 2006. Will the reconfigured left field fence have the effect that the Phillies are hoping for?

The computer simulation was done on Diamond-Mind Baseball, using their stats projections for the 2006 season. The results are unscientific and may only represent a possible outcome for the 2006 season. For more on the game used in the simulation, visit Diamond-Mind.com.

Sometimes, things just don't go the way you would think they would. Take the reconfiguration of the left field fence at Citizens Bank Park. Our computer simulation of four seasons of play with the old configuration and four seasons of play with the new configuration didn't show the expected results. Keep in mind though that the games were allowed to play out in whatever way the computer saw them with absolutely no intervention from the "human element". In other words, when a player was injured, the computer decided who to bring up to the majors and no input was given into what players to play from game-to-game. All of those things are determined by the Diamond-Mind program that encompasses manager and player profiles and stats.

With the old configuration, the Phillies hit an average of 184 homeruns per year in our four season simulation. The game doesn't give a breakout of homeruns hit at home and homeruns hit on the road, so we can't compare those exact numbers. With the new configuration, the Phillies averaged 167 homeruns per season over the four season simulation. Those numbers are especially interesting, since the Phillies hit a total of 167 homeruns last season.

The simulation showed that right-handed hitters - who would figure to be effected most by the reconfiguration - actually hit an average of 68 homeruns under the new dimensions and 56 under the old dimensions. Left-handed hitters hit an average of five more homeruns per season with the new dimensions, although the game doesn't stipulate to what field those homeruns are hit.

As a sidelight, the Phillies averaged 83 wins with the new dimensions and won the division once. Under the new dimensions, they averaged 85 wins and also won the division once.

It's hard to imagine these simulations actually playing out, but can you imagine the fun that will be had in South Philly if they do?

Average homeruns per season

PLAYER OLD DIMENSIONS NEW DIMENSIONS
Ryan Howard 38 41
Chase Utley 24 24
Bobby Abreu 19 21
Jimmy Rollins 9 11
Abraham Nunez 3 3
Pat Burrell 29 33
Aaron Rowand 11 14
Mike Lieberthal 8 13
David Bell 11 8


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