Scouting The MLB - July 28

We've got a couple of very stackable lineups in addition to the top DFS plays this Monday

Weather Report

  • Storms and showers could lead to delays in Boston and Cincinnati tonight

Stackable Menu

  1. Chicago Cubs hosting LHP Yohan Flande
  2. Washington Nationals visiting RHP Nathan Eovaldi
  3. Toronto Blue Jays visiting RHP Clay Buchholz
  4. Colorado Rockies visiting LHP Tsuyoshi Wada
  5. Oakland Athetlics visiting LHP Brett Oberholtzer

Longshot stack:Cincinnati Reds hosting RHP Chase Anderson


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Pitchers

Two Studs:

Yu Darvish (TEX) vs. NYY: $11,400 – Facing RHP David Phelps

Who knows if it’s in Darvish’s DNA, but most stud athletes would be pretty pissed about what happened in his last start. The Yankee Stadium grounds crew, obviously aware of the fact that the home team was up 2-1 during a 5th inning rain delay, conveniently botched covering the field, which caused the game to get called early. Darvish never got a chance to atone for his one big mistake of the night (2-run HR served to Brett Gardner), but he’ll get a shot at redemption tonight. The slender RHP faces the same Yankees team, only this time he’ll be in sunny Texas, where he’s sporting a 2.49 ERA, .211 BAA, and 0.42 HR/9 ratio this season. He leads the Majors with an 11.33 K/9 ratio, and is 2-0 with 0 ER and 14 Ks in his last two home starts against the Bronx Bombers.

Jake Odorizzi (TB) vs. MIL: $8300 – Facing RHP Kyle Lohse

Odorizzi is putting it together in his first full season with the Rays, and his upside far exceeds his price tag considering he’s 2nd in the A.L. with a 10.46 K/9 ratio. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in 8 straight starts, and has been lights out at home- averaging 24.14 DK points with a 1.93 ERA in his last 5 starts at Tropicana Field. The Brewers offense, while usually dangerous, has been sputtering this month as they’re in the bottom 10 in the MLB in runs scored and have the 5th worst collective average (.237) in July. We'll see if they can get anything going off the Rays rapidly improving RHP.



Value Play:

Jesse Chavez (OAK) @ HOU: $8000 – Facing LHP Brett Oberholtzer

Pitching for an Athletics team that is heavily favored once again (-192), Chavez is a decent bet to hit value and a worthwhile option in 50/50 and H2H formats. The young RHP will face the Astros in consecutive starts, and he was able to dance around some trouble to earn the Win (5.2 IP, 7 K, 4 H, 2 BB) last Wednesday. His stuff hasn’t been good enough to completely shut down an offense recently, but he’s managing games, and his upside is clearly boosted by the fact that the Astros lead the A.L. in strikeouts (925) this season. Houston’s offense is much less dangerous with George Springer on the DL, and Chavez’s adversary is no Ace, so he has a great chance to produce solid DK point totals as he comes away with another W.

Longshot Pitcher:

Bartolo Colon (NYM) vs. PHI: $7300 – Facing RHP A.J. Burnett

Colon isn’t as much of a longshot as you might think in this matchup. He’s been solid at Citi Field all season with a 2.81 ERA, 0.78 HR/9, and is producing 22.4 DK PPG in 8 home starts this season. Now he’ll face the Phillies 26th ranked offense, the same team that he held in check (7 IP, 2 ER) in a road start on June 2. The Mets are looking to deal Colon sometime in the next month, and the ancient RHP is doing his best to draw some potential suitors as he flirted with a perfect game in his last start. He’s in great position to keep rolling tonight.



Batters

Catcher:

Dioner Navarro (TOR) @ BOS: $3900 – Facing RHP Clay Buchholz

Clay Buchholz pitches at home tonight, which automatically makes Blue Jays hitters worth consideration. The Red Sox maligned starter has given up 15 H and 8 ER in his last two starts, as he’s now sporting a 6.32 ERA and .325 BAA at Fenway. Navarro was quiet as the Jays hung 5 runs on Buchholz in his last start, but Toronto’s usual DH is still a solid 4 for 11 (.364) against the right-hander. With winds expected to be blowing out at 12 MPH tonight, runs should be relatively plentiful at Fenway Park, and Navarro is worth a look if he’s batting 4th or 5th again.

Potential Value:

Brayan Pena ($2900) got Sunday off, but has been starting at 1B for the Reds for the past few weeks. He’s hitting .312 with 2 HR over his last 10 games and could produce against RHP Chase Anderson tonight.

Longshot:

Wellington Castillo ($3900) has more power against LHP and could be part of a sneaky Cubs stack tonight.



First Base:

Anthony Rizzo (CHC) vs. COL: $5700 – Facing LHP Yohan Flande

It’s not a Cubs stack without their burgeoning superstar, and you could argue that Rizzo is due for a dong as he’s gone 5 games without a HR. The National League’s home run leader has a new approach against LHP that is paying off this season, as he’s sporting a .432 wOBA against southpaws. Flande has been smacked around in each of his 4 MLB starts, and while his reverse-platoon numbers aren’t horrible in a small sample size, lefties actually hit .351 against him in the Minors this year. There aren’t many first basemen worth paying up for tonight, but Rizzo could be worth the money as he faces one of the worst starters in the MLB at home.

Potential Value:

Lucas Duda ($4200) is on fire for the Mets and worth consideration against A.J. Burnett, who struggles against lefties.

Longshot:

Adam LaRoche ($4500) is 5 for 11 off Nathan Eovaldi, who is extremely vulnerable to LHB. LaRoche has tons of upside as the Nationals potential cleanup hitter.



Second Base:

Emilio Bonifacio (CHC) vs. COL: $3800 – Facing LHP Yohan Flande

The Cubs lineup is growing increasingly dangerous, and Bonifacio has been a big part of boosting their offense. He’s been leading off for Chicago since coming off the DL on July 22, and is hitting a cool 8-24 (.333) during that span. The switch-hitter has been all over lefties this season with a .409 wOBA against LHP, and he has superior splits at home as well. Expect Bonifacio to be aggressive on the base paths and score a run or two in what should be a high scoring affair.

Potential Value:

D. J. LeMahieu ($3700) is hitting .362 this month and has the platoon advantage against LHP Tsuyoshi Wada. He’s worth a look as long as he’s in the Rockies lineup.

Longshot:

Jordany Valdespin ($3100) has been hot lately and is worth consideration if he’s batting 2nd for the Marlins tonight.



Third Base:

Josh Donaldson (OAK) @ HOU: $5100 – Facing LHP Brett Oberholtzer

With decent mid-tier SP options available, it’s possible to pay up for expensive position players, and Donaldson should be worth the money as the top 3B tonight. He has the platoon advantage (.452 wOBA against LHP), receives a boost in HR factor as the A’s travel to Houston, and has great splits against tonight’s starter (5 for 10, 3 doubles, and a HR). Donaldson has produced double-digit DK points in 5 of 9 games since the ASB, and should keep rolling in a plus matchup.

Potential Value:

I know a matchup with Madison Bumgarner is intimidating, but Josh Harrison ($3700) was incredible yesterday and could leadoff for the Pirates again tonight. He happens to be 2 for 3 off the Giants Ace, and won’t need much to meet value.

Longshot:

Juan Francisco ($3900) is averaging 11.4 DK points over his last 5 games and could be a productive part of a Blue Jays stack depending on his placement in the lineup.



Shortstop:

Josh Rutledge (COL) vs. PIT: $4300 – Facing LHP Tsuyoshi Wada

So, Rutledge flopped yesterday. I mean, really flopped by going 0-5 in a game with 12 runs scored at Coors Field. Despite his recent string of success (.444 average in his previous 6 games) Rutledge has always been a boom-or-bust player, but there’s a chance he bounces back against a LHP that’s allowing righties to post a .382 wOBA in 2 Major League starts. Rutledge has been crushing lefties (1.074 OPS) this season and should be locked into the lineup with Tulo on the DL. Try to avoid being blinded by rage after yesterday’s bagel, and consider the Rockies replacement SS.

Potential Value:

Danny Espinosa ($3400) is worth a look because Nathan Eovaldi has really struggled against the platoon. The Nationals have few LHB, but Espinosa is one that could exceed value.

Longshot:

Xander Bogaerts (BOS) has pulled it together recently and is 4 for 6 in his career off Blue Jays starter R.A. Dickey. He could be a cheap GPP play at $3300.



Outfielders:

Jayson Werth (WAS) @ MIA: $4600 – Facing RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi’s regression is complete, as he’s given up 13 ER and 3 HR while dropping consecutive decisions. He’s actually been worse at home, with a 4.85 ERA and .290 BAA in 11 starts, and will have a difficult time shutting down the division-leading Nationals tonight. Werth has reached base in all but one game this month, and leads the Majors with a .512 wOBA in July. He has a high floor, as well as plenty of upside if the Nats offense starts rolling.

Drew Stubbs (COL) @ CHC: $4400 – Facing LHP Tsuyoshi Wada

With a left-hander on the mound, Stubbs should be in the Rockies lineup tonight. Half of the dual threat’s 11 HR and 11 SB have come against lefties this season, in significantly fewer at bats. Stubbs is sporting a .449 wOBA against LHP, and could feast off an inexperienced southpaw like Wada. Keep in mind that a mild foot injury kept him off the field Sunday, so if he’s inactive, RHB Brandon Barnes ($2800) may start in the outfield and could be a suitable punt play.

Christian Yelich (MIA) vs. WAS: $4100 – Facing RHP Jordan Zimmerman

Yelich is making yet another appearance in this column because his consistency exceeds his current price tag. The Marlins leadoff hitter is batting .340 this month, .345 over his last 10 games, and averaging 8.7 DK PPG during that span. He’s 5 for 8 in his career against Zimmerman, who has been shelled in all 3 starts against the Marlins (11.66 ERA and .422 BAA) this year. Look for Yelich to set the table as his squad tries to get to Zimmerman once again.



Potential Values:

Bartolo Colon has upside based on his price, but it’s doubtful he limits Phillies base runners entirely. That makes Ben Revere ($3600) a solid value option if he’s leading off.

David Peralta ($3500) has been solid for the Diamondbacks and has the platoon advantage against inconsistent RHP Homer Bailey.

Chris Heisey ($2900) and Kris Negron ($2200) are intriguing longshot options against RHP Chase Anderson. Heisey has more of a proven track record, and is batting 5th for the Reds, while Negron is SS eligible and available for slightly above the minimum price.


I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7

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