Prospect Predictions For The 2013 Season

With minor league Spring Training underway, we take a stab at predicting which Yankees prospects will win which statistical categories in the 2013 season. Who will lead the farm system in home runs? Which pitcher will strike out the most batters? Which player will break into the Top Ten Yankees prospects by the end of the season? Find out all this and much, much more.

Most Wins: Nik Turley - Right-hander Brett Marshall led the system in wins last season with 13 and he could be poised to do it once again this coming season pitching behind what should be a very solid Triple-A Scranton offense if he doesn't get called up to the big leagues. However, the hitting in Trenton has the chance to be special and Nik Turley, who finished last season with ten victories, should benefit from their support. Matt Tracy is another strong candidate here for the very same reasons.

Most Strikeouts: Bryan Mitchell - This time a year ago we picked Dellin Betances to win this category and despite his struggles, which included a demotion to Double-A Trenton, he still finished just two strikeouts behind the farm system leader [Vidal Nuno]. Mitchell, who had his fair of struggles for long stretches too, finished just five strikeouts behind Nuno. We're expecting a more consistent season from Mitchell in 2013 and he should take home the strikeout title.

Best Walks Per Nine Innings: Giovanny Gallegos - The two best shots at bringing home this honor are Gallegos and Daniel Camarena, two superb strike-throwers who had but two walks between them in nearly 45 combined innings with the Gulf Coast League Yankees last season. Camarena would probably do a shade better but he's not nearly the better bet to pitch the entire season in the long-season leagues that Gallegos is right now so we'll go with the guy who projects to have a few more long-season league innings just to be fair.

Lowest ERA: Daniel Camarena - We're going to hedge our bets here and pick 'the other guy' for the ERA title. Even if Camarena has to pitch in the short-season leagues again [which he really shouldn't] or if he gets to go to Charleston right away, the high level of pitch-ability is going to be way too much for opposing batters at the lower minor league levels. He should carve up batters either in Charleston or Staten Island and it would be a monumental shock if he does not at least finish in the top five among starters' ERA this coming season.

For Relievers:

Most Saves: Branden Pinder - We picked Mark Montgomery correctly for this category a year ago and he would be the safe play again for 2013. However, his game is not all that far off from being big league ready right now and he is already on the short list of potential in-house bullpen candidates should the need arise in the Bronx. We're going to go with Pinder here, a pitcher with a similar upside or better, one whose confidence is extremely high after finishing the season with a sub-1.00 ERA over the final month of the 2012 season.

Lowest ERA: Tommy Kahnle - Make no mistake, it will be Mark Montgomery who takes home the reliever ERA title if he pitches the entire 2013 season in the minor leagues. We're going to go out on a limb though and say he won't, and choose a guy who seems to be on the cusp of putting it all together and that's Kahnle. His 2.45 ERA last season was just scratching the surface of his potential and now he's brimming with confidence. How his ERA was that high considering batters hit just .158 against him and he served up just two home runs all year remains a bit of a mystery.

Most Strikeouts Per Nine Innings: Mark Montgomery - We successfully chose Montgomery a year ago and we're not going to against him in 2013 because what we do know is he'll begin the year in the minor leagues and there really isn't anyone that should come too close to his 14-plus strikeouts per nine innings. Guys like Kahnle, Pinder, and Manny Barreda could make a bit of a run of it, but they probably won't eclipse his ratio.

For Position Players:

Highest Average: Tyler Austin - The Yankees have no shortage of potential candidates in this category; Ramon Flores, Mason Williams, Ben Gamel, Greg Bird, etc. However, after hitting an organizational high .322 last season and with the way he has been swinging the bat in big league camp this year, we're not going to bet against him anytime soon. Here's the mind numbing stat of the day -- Austin hit a ridiculous .347 against right-handed pitching in 2012. Imagine if he got better against left-handers! If you want a darkhorse candidate look no further than Matt Snyder. He could really make some noise here.

Most Home Runs: Tyler Austin - With the uncertainty of who the Yankees will bring north with them to replace Curtis Granderson for the first five weeks of the season, that makes picking either Zoilo Almonte or Melky Mesa, both of whom finished in the top three in home runs last year, a little dicey. It very well could be Luke Murton too who finishes with the most home runs again like last year and Gary Sanchez is always one of the safer bets. However, Austin seems poised to take his power up a notch in 2013.

Highest On-Base Percentage: Greg Bird - We're tempted to pick Tyler Austin again here but we'll go a different route for variety's sake. Austin will certainly be among the leaders in on-base percentage and so should the likes of Taylor Dugas, Matt Snyder, and perhaps even Ramon Flores, but we're going to go with discernible eye of Bird here because of the great bat and the fact that there are nearly not as many strikes thrown in the South Atlantic League, Bird's likely destination this season.

Most Stolen Bases: Angelo Gumbs - There are better pure speedsters to choose from -- Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott, Claudio Custodio, etc -- just to name a few. However, Gumbs finished second in this category a year ago with 26 stolen bases and he played his last game on June 26th. Nobody is more aggressive on the base paths than Gumbs and he plays the game everyday with something to prove. Don't be shocked if he approaches 40-50 stolen bases should he remain healthy for the entire 2013 season.

The Superlatives:

First Player To Be Called Up To The Major Leagues: Zoilo Almonte - We picked him a year ago too but now the choice seems clearer than ever given the injury to Granderson and the makeup of the lineup, a lineup which enters the new season missing a lot of last year's power. Not only could Almonte provide some much needed power, but the 40-man roster guy is also one of the few switch-hitters in the organization who is close to big league ready.

Best Comeback From Injury: Angelo Gumbs - A year ago we picked Slade Heathcott and he came back to play with a vengeance. Like Heathcott, Gumbs plays that way when he's healthy and after missing out on the last ten weeks of the season last year, his first year in the long-season leagues, a year in which he was getting better with each passing day, we're expecting a huge breakout season from Gumbs in 2013 now that he's healthy. Jose Campos is right up there with Gumbs too -- he's kind of 1A among the options -- and Anderson Feliz is another strong bet. Don't forget Danny Burawa though, he certainly has the talent to fit well here.

Best Bounce-Back Season: Dante Bichette Jr. - The Yankees have a number of candidates who can fit in here; Cito Culver, Ravel Santana, Dellin Betances, etc. Betances seems to have the longest way to go to bounce back, Culver will probably still have some struggles switch-hitting given his extreme youth, and Santana still needs a little more time to get the ankle completely flexible once again. Bichette though seems poised to have the best bounce-back season of the group after he tinkered with his swing too much last season. He ended the 2012 year well, he's completely healthy, and the plate discipline is just too good not to bounce back in a big way this season. Another strong candidate is Taylor Morton.

Breakout Player: Greg Bird - We picked Gumbs a year ago and he was well on his way to having a great breakout season until the tricep injury ended his season prematurely. He could certainly have yet another breakout season in 2013 [we think he'll be even better this year] and become a Top 100 prospect in the game, but Bird is the one with a little more to prove after missing most of last season with a nagging back issue. And he too is just way too talented a hitter to not break out in huge way in 2013. He could be the '13 version of Tyler Austin as somebody who jumps on to the national scene by season's end. Another strong candidate is Gabe Encinas.

DSL or 'July 2nd' Sign Import That Will Shoot Up The Rankings: Abiatal Avelino - The Yankees have a number of potential great choices here; Luis Torrens, Dallas Martinez, Simon De La Rosa, Jorge Mateo, etc, etc, all of whom have immense talent. However, we're going with the high makeup kid here, one who has the chance to excel on both sides of the ball immediately. There's also some significant physical growth potential too.

Current Minor Leaguer That Will Break Into The Top 10: Greg Bird - A year ago we chose Ramon Flores and now he's a consensus top ten prospect for the Yankees. Picking Angelo Gumbs here is a little too easy because had it not been for the tricep injury a year ago he most assuredly would have garnered top ten recognition and probably is a mortal lock to be one by the end of 2013. Bird, despite being a corner infielder, has all the makings offensively to be a top ten prospect by the end of the season too. We're expecting huge numbers in 2013 and with his makeup he has the chance to be special. If you're looking for a darkhorse Top Ten candidate, somebody a lot further down in the current rankings, think Giovanny Gallegos. He has the current stuff and command, and room to grow factor that could allow him to skyrocket up the rankings.

Current Non-Top 50's To Break Into The Top 50 Next Season - Obviously there will be some new names come draft time and the draft signing deadline, but amongst the names currently in the farm system who could make their way into the Top 50 prospects by season's end, there's no shortage of candidates [we're not counting Rookie Davis since he assumed a Top 50 ranking after the Yankees dealt away Abraham Almonte]; Hayden Sharp, Joey Maher, Taylor Morton, Chris Breen, Matt Duran, Brady Lail, etc, among the young kids. Right-handers Manny Barreda and Shane Greene are among the older guys who could turn things around in a big way, and first baseman Matt Snyder has a legit shot because he has the look of a real 'sleeper' type.

Top Yankee Prospect For 2013: Slade Heathcott - We picked Mason Williams last year coming out of Staten Island and he did exactly that, becoming the top Yankee prospect. The cop out prediction would be to pick Williams again but even if Williams stays healthy we're just expecting Heathcott, who has always had the highest ceiling in the organization, to finally become that consistent dynamic player he always could be.

Players To Skip A Level To Start 2013 - The Yankees always seemingly have some candidates who skip a minor league level to start a season. The best bet is first baseman Matt Snyder after he hit .362 over his final 41 games in Staten Island last year and added 25-30 pounds this offseason. With Greg Bird destined for Charleston, Snyder should man first base for the Tampa Yankees to start the year. Rafael DePaula is another strong bet to jump from the Dominican Summer League last season, skip the U.S. short-season leagues entirely, and go right to low-A Charleston. Staten Island reliever James Pazos might have the next best shot of skipping a level and going directly to high-A Tampa.

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Diehard Magazine Top Stories

\r\n \r\n\r\nMost Wins: Nik Turley - Right-hander Brett Marshall led the system in wins last season with 13 and he could be poised to do it once again this coming season pitching behind what should be a very solid Triple-A Scranton offense if he doesn't get called up to the big leagues. However, the hitting in Trenton has the chance to be special and Nik Turley, who finished last season with ten victories, should benefit from their support. Matt Tracy is another strong candidate here for the very same reasons.
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\r\nMost Strikeouts: Bryan Mitchell - This time a year ago we picked Dellin Betances to win this category and despite his struggles, which included a demotion to Double-A Trenton, he still finished just two strikeouts behind the farm system leader [Vidal Nuno]. Mitchell, who had his fair of struggles for long stretches too, finished just five strikeouts behind Nuno. We're expecting a more consistent season from Mitchell in 2013 and he should take home the strikeout title.
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\r\nBest Walks Per Nine Innings: Giovanny Gallegos - The two best shots at bringing home this honor are Gallegos and Daniel Camarena, two superb strike-throwers who had but two walks between them in nearly 45 combined innings with the Gulf Coast League Yankees last season. Camarena would probably do a shade better but he's not nearly the better bet to pitch the entire season in the long-season leagues that Gallegos is right now so we'll go with the guy who projects to have a few more long-season league innings just to be fair.
\r\n
\r\nLowest ERA: Daniel Camarena - We're going to hedge our bets here and pick 'the other guy' for the ERA title. Even if Camarena has to pitch in the short-season leagues again [which he really shouldn't] or if he gets to go to Charleston right away, the high level of pitch-ability is going to be way too much for opposing batters at the lower minor league levels. He should carve up batters either in Charleston or Staten Island and it would be a monumental shock if he does not at least finish in the top five among starters' ERA this coming season.
\r\n
\r\nFor Relievers:
\r\n
\r\nMost Saves: Branden Pinder - We picked Mark Montgomery correctly for this category a year ago and he would be the safe play again for 2013. However, his game is not all that far off from being big league ready right now and he is already on the short list of potential in-house bullpen candidates should the need arise in the Bronx. We're going to go with Pinder here, a pitcher with a similar upside or better, one whose confidence is extremely high after finishing the season with a sub-1.00 ERA over the final month of the 2012 season.
\r\n
\r\nLowest ERA: Tommy Kahnle - Make no mistake, it will be Mark Montgomery who takes home the reliever ERA title if he pitches the entire 2013 season in the minor leagues. We're going to go out on a limb though and say he won't, and choose a guy who seems to be on the cusp of putting it all together and that's Kahnle. His 2.45 ERA last season was just scratching the surface of his potential and now he's brimming with confidence. How his ERA was that high considering batters hit just .158 against him and he served up just two home runs all year remains a bit of a mystery.
\r\n
\r\nMost Strikeouts Per Nine Innings: Mark Montgomery - We successfully chose Montgomery a year ago and we're not going to against him in 2013 because what we do know is he'll begin the year in the minor leagues and there really isn't anyone that should come too close to his 14-plus strikeouts per nine innings. Guys like Kahnle, Pinder, and Manny Barreda could make a bit of a run of it, but they probably won't eclipse his ratio.
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\r\nFor Position Players:
\r\n
\r\nHighest Average: Tyler Austin - The Yankees have no shortage of potential candidates in this category; Ramon Flores, Mason Williams, Ben Gamel, Greg Bird, etc. However, after hitting an organizational high .322 last season and with the way he has been swinging the bat in big league camp this year, we're not going to bet against him anytime soon. Here's the mind numbing stat of the day -- Austin hit a ridiculous .347 against right-handed pitching in 2012. Imagine if he got better against left-handers! If you want a darkhorse candidate look no further than Matt Snyder. He could really make some noise here.
\r\n
\r\nMost Home Runs: Tyler Austin - With the uncertainty of who the Yankees will bring north with them to replace Curtis Granderson for the first five weeks of the season, that makes picking either Zoilo Almonte or Melky Mesa, both of whom finished in the top three in home runs last year, a little dicey. It very well could be Luke Murton too who finishes with the most home runs again like last year and Gary Sanchez is always one of the safer bets. However, Austin seems poised to take his power up a notch in 2013.
\r\n
\r\nHighest On-Base Percentage: Greg Bird - We're tempted to pick Tyler Austin again here but we'll go a different route for variety's sake. Austin will certainly be among the leaders in on-base percentage and so should the likes of Taylor Dugas, Matt Snyder, and perhaps even Ramon Flores, but we're going to go with discernible eye of Bird here because of the great bat and the fact that there are nearly not as many strikes thrown in the South Atlantic League, Bird's likely destination this season.
\r\n
\r\nMost Stolen Bases: Angelo Gumbs - There are better pure speedsters to choose from -- Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott, Claudio Custodio, etc -- just to name a few. However, Gumbs finished second in this category a year ago with 26 stolen bases and he played his last game on June 26th. Nobody is more aggressive on the base paths than Gumbs and he plays the game everyday with something to prove. Don't be shocked if he approaches 40-50 stolen bases should he remain healthy for the entire 2013 season.
\r\n
\r\nThe Superlatives:
\r\n
\r\nFirst Player To Be Called Up To The Major Leagues: Zoilo Almonte - We picked him a year ago too but now the choice seems clearer than ever given the injury to Granderson and the makeup of the lineup, a lineup which enters the new season missing a lot of last year's power. Not only could Almonte provide some much needed power, but the 40-man roster guy is also one of the few switch-hitters in the organization who is close to big league ready.
\r\n
\r\nBest Comeback From Injury: Angelo Gumbs - A year ago we picked Slade Heathcott and he came back to play with a vengeance. Like Heathcott, Gumbs plays that way when he's healthy and after missing out on the last ten weeks of the season last year, his first year in the long-season leagues, a year in which he was getting better with each passing day, we're expecting a huge breakout season from Gumbs in 2013 now that he's healthy. Jose Campos is right up there with Gumbs too -- he's kind of 1A among the options -- and Anderson Feliz is another strong bet. Don't forget Danny Burawa though, he certainly has the talent to fit well here.
\r\n
\r\nBest Bounce-Back Season: Dante Bichette Jr. - The Yankees have a number of candidates who can fit in here; Cito Culver, Ravel Santana, Dellin Betances, etc. Betances seems to have the longest way to go to bounce back, Culver will probably still have some struggles switch-hitting given his extreme youth, and Santana still needs a little more time to get the ankle completely flexible once again. Bichette though seems poised to have the best bounce-back season of the group after he tinkered with his swing too much last season. He ended the 2012 year well, he's completely healthy, and the plate discipline is just too good not to bounce back in a big way this season. Another strong candidate is Taylor Morton.
\r\n
\r\nBreakout Player: Greg Bird - We picked Gumbs a year ago and he was well on his way to having a great breakout season until the tricep injury ended his season prematurely. He could certainly have yet another breakout season in 2013 [we think he'll be even better this year] and become a Top 100 prospect in the game, but Bird is the one with a little more to prove after missing most of last season with a nagging back issue. And he too is just way too talented a hitter to not break out in huge way in 2013. He could be the '13 version of Tyler Austin as somebody who jumps on to the national scene by season's end. Another strong candidate is Gabe Encinas.
\r\n
\r\nDSL or 'July 2nd' Sign Import That Will Shoot Up The Rankings: Abiatal Avelino - The Yankees have a number of potential great choices here; Luis Torrens, Dallas Martinez, Simon De La Rosa, Jorge Mateo, etc, etc, all of whom have immense talent. However, we're going with the high makeup kid here, one who has the chance to excel on both sides of the ball immediately. There's also some significant physical growth potential too.
\r\n
\r\nCurrent Minor Leaguer That Will Break Into The Top 10: Greg Bird - A year ago we chose Ramon Flores and now he's a consensus top ten prospect for the Yankees. Picking Angelo Gumbs here is a little too easy because had it not been for the tricep injury a year ago he most assuredly would have garnered top ten recognition and probably is a mortal lock to be one by the end of 2013. Bird, despite being a corner infielder, has all the makings offensively to be a top ten prospect by the end of the season too. We're expecting huge numbers in 2013 and with his makeup he has the chance to be special. If you're looking for a darkhorse Top Ten candidate, somebody a lot further down in the current rankings, think Giovanny Gallegos. He has the current stuff and command, and room to grow factor that could allow him to skyrocket up the rankings.
\r\n
\r\nCurrent Non-Top 50's To Break Into The Top 50 Next Season - Obviously there will be some new names come draft time and the draft signing deadline, but amongst the names currently in the farm system who could make their way into the Top 50 prospects by season's end, there's no shortage of candidates [we're not counting Rookie Davis since he assumed a Top 50 ranking after the Yankees dealt away Abraham Almonte]; Hayden Sharp, Joey Maher, Taylor Morton, Chris Breen, Matt Duran, Brady Lail, etc, among the young kids. Right-handers Manny Barreda and Shane Greene are among the older guys who could turn things around in a big way, and first baseman Matt Snyder has a legit shot because he has the look of a real 'sleeper' type.
\r\n
\r\nTop Yankee Prospect For 2013: Slade Heathcott - We picked Mason Williams last year coming out of Staten Island and he did exactly that, becoming the top Yankee prospect. The cop out prediction would be to pick Williams again but even if Williams stays healthy we're just expecting Heathcott, who has always had the highest ceiling in the organization, to finally become that consistent dynamic player he always could be.
\r\n
\r\nPlayers To Skip A Level To Start 2013 - The Yankees always seemingly have some candidates who skip a minor league level to start a season. The best bet is first baseman Matt Snyder after he hit .362 over his final 41 games in Staten Island last year and added 25-30 pounds this offseason. With Greg Bird destined for Charleston, Snyder should man first base for the Tampa Yankees to start the year. Rafael DePaula is another strong bet to jump from the Dominican Summer League last season, skip the U.S. short-season leagues entirely, and go right to low-A Charleston. Staten Island reliever James Pazos might have the next best shot of skipping a level and going directly to high-A Tampa.
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