MLB Draft Notebook: 1st Round Update

Kiley brings us notes on 1st round prospects and the clubs that are scouting them. He already has some things he'd change about his most recent mock draft along with some buzz and reasons why he buys some of it and some doesn't pass the smell test. He breaks down Ryne Stanek's draft stock, compares Kris Bryant & D.J. Peterson and explains why certain clubs prefer Austin Meadows to Clint Frazier.

Scouting Baseball's MLB Draft Content

Draft Central & Complete Site Archive

1st Round Mock Draft 1.0 & Mock Draft 2.0 Updated 1st Round Buzz & Full Draft Order

Top 111 Draft Prospect Rankings & Scouting Reports 1-50 & 51-111

Marginal Prospects Podcasts: Jim Callis of Baseball America, Frankie Piliere of Perfect Game & Eno Sarris of FanGraphs

Draft-Focused Chats: May 8th, May 16th & May 30th

2014 MLB Draft Previews: College Pitchers, Prep Pitchers, College Hitters, Prep Hitters

Before I roll out regional and positional previews, I wanted to offload more draft notes, mostly for players beyond the first round. If you're interested mostly in the first round, check out my mock drafts linked above. I've been to a few draft-related events with loads of the southeast's best 2014 and 2015 draft-eligible high school players, but I'll hold onto those notes until I can see more of the country in a few weeks at the PG National Showcase in Minnesota. Suffice it to say the 2014 high school previews linked above will be changing a good bit in a few weeks.

1st Round Updates

- As it always seems to happen, the day after I put out a mock draft, I get some solid new intel that would likely change some of my projected picks.

I had heard Clint Frazier was a longshot at #6 and Meadows was behind him, but after learning of the Marlins workout and checking in with some sources, it sounds like Frazier is out of the running and Meadows is a real option. It also sounds like Kansas City has Meadows a little higher than I had perceived previously and he's still in play for the Pirates if Reese McGuire or Trey Ball is gone, so it's now looking less likely that he mays slip to the Mets at #11. With these names and D.J. Peterson getting shuffled around in my head, it's seeming more likely that you could flip-flop Peterson (8th/KC) and Meadows (11th/NYM) in my last mock draft...until I change my mind again.

- One of the reasons the above Meadows information doesn't surprise me is that he fits the styles of the Marlins, Mets and Royals whereas Frazier fits the style of the Red Sox, Padres and Indians better. The Marlins/Mets/Royals are more traditional drafting clubs that focus on tools, athleticism and physicality and lean to upside with high picks, often to high schoolers. Clubs like the Red Sox/Padres/Indians may draft those types as well, but are open to taking college players and those who don't have obvious, traditional profile fits. Frazier, to me, is a superior prospect, but as I've noted before has an unusual profile and doesn't have a lot of close comparables. On the other hand, Meadows looks like many previous high picks who have become big leaguers and is a little easier to project success, though that doesn't necessarily mean he's a better prospect. The industry seems to agree Frazier is slightly better but the teams that appear to prefer Meadows are exactly the teams I thought they would be months ago while the Red Sox/Padres/Indians group appear to all have Frazier over Meadows, as I do. At a juncture where rumors are flying and contradicting previous information, cues like this help let me know what to trust.

- This one could be a big piece of news if I can get it confirmed by some other sources as the news above: the Cubs board is 1) Jonathan Gray and 2) Kris Bryant. I got this one from a solid source but good intel on the top few picks is tough at this point with those clubs understandably staying quiet to maximize surprise and leverage. Seemingly all that is coming out is info contrarian to the industry consensus and possible under slot deal-cutting, which makes a lot of sense because that's exactly what could force the best players to lower their demands. What I had heard all spring is the Cubs had Appel at #1 a good bit ahead of the other two players, so I'll need more to go on before buying this completely. So, I'm considering this info but not implementing it into my mock draft just yet, though that may change in the coming days.

- Some fans has asked me on twitter to describe why New Mexico's D.J. Peterson is being talked about so high in the draft as a 6'0, 215 pound future first basemen playing most of his games at a high altitude. I asked a national crosschecker to compare Peterson and San Diego 6'5, 215 pound 3B Kris Bryant's power on the 20-80 scouting scale and he gave Peterson a 65 (25-30 HR annually) and Bryant a 75 (35-40 HR annually), in line with the other accounts I've received on the hitters. Bryant is likely a right fielder long-term but his physical length will limit his ability to hit for average long-term, hence the Jayson Werth comps, while Peterson's shorter stature actually increases his chances to hit for average. Bryant's power is created by his length and leverage primarily, while Peterson's comes more from raw strength. One scout said Peterson is the best hitter he's seen in 25 years and compared him to Jeff Bagwell, while another said he's more like Billy Butler. Despite his historic college season (.340/.500/.860, 31 HR), Bryant is projected as more of a .260-.275 hitter while Peterson is expected to be a notch better and had his own huge season to boot (.411/.525/.823, 18 HR). With both ending up in a corner in short order, this explains why one will go in the top 5 and the other will go in the top 12, as their upside isn't considerably different despite getting there in very different ways.

- Ryne Stanek appears to be the big wildcard in the middle of round one now that it's looking like Sean Manaea could be working his way out of being a top pick. Stanek has been extremely inconsistent this year and, after talking to scouts, it sounds like I saw his worst start of the year: a 92-94 mph fastball that hit 95, average offspeed with below average command and body language. That guy wasn't a first rounder but, at his best, Stanek has flashed a 93-96 mph fastball and easy plus slider with a good frame, arm action and delivery. There's some buzz a few clubs in the 8-12 range could be looking at him (Royals, local to his Kansas hometown and Mariners, who took him out of high school, among others) along with some buzz he could easily slip into the 20's from teams that have seen him late and don't like to project stuff to reappear for pitchers. Florida's Jonathan Crawford has shown similar stuff to Stanek in the past but has a worse arm action and delivery, though after a down season, Crawford is trending up now and may be a momentum play and cut-rate alternative to Stanek if both are available in the second half of round one.

Some notes I alluded to in my latest mock draft and some that just missed the cut:

- Florida prep IF Christian Arroyo will be in the edited Top 111. He's progressed some this spring, cleaning up his body some and getting more physical, with a little better speed/strength/arm to where you could send him out as a shortstop, though his lateral quickness will limit him to second base. With his added power (still a little below average) and arm strength (average to slightly above), some clubs are speculating he could be converted to catcher, where his advanced bat will fit even better. If the conversion sticks, he'd be a very comparable prospect to Chris Okey, another Florida prep standout who looks to fit in the 25-50 pick range. That's a lot to assume, though, which is why, despite the hot rumor of Arroyo going 25th overall to the Giants, I think Arroyo fits better in round two.

- Speaking of Okey, some signability notes are trickling out, with his and California prep LHP Matt Krook rumored to be looking for $1.5 million. One scout noted that once numbers start coming out, other players just copy them to get the same perceived value and it sounds like $1.5 million is a popular number this year, whereas he heard $1.1 million often last year. Other players rumored to be in that same basic range (some a bit higher) are Arizona prep IF Riley Unroe, Virginia prep RHP Connor Jones, Tennessee prep RHP Kyle Serrano, Minnesota prep CF Ryan Boldt and Florida RHP Karsten Whitson. Bonus uncertainty with these players could push them lower to clubs with big bonus pools that cut under slot deals early and players with easier signabilities like North Carolina prep RHP Hunter Harvey could be the beneficiaries.

- One scouting director told me he thought Gonzaga LHP Marco Gonzales was the closest to the majors of any prospect in the whole draft class and two other scouts sitting nearby immediately agreed. Gonzales turned a lot of heads in the scouting community when he showed a plus changeup and plus command in an under-two-hour dismantling of Arkansas in early March. Gonzales is a good athlete and has a solid swing along with an average 88-91 mph fastball that he commands well and an average curveball to keep hitters honest. Seattle has been in heavy to see him and he could be a discounted option as high as #12, but likely fits in the 20's with the Rays and Cardinals owning multiple picks in that range and also showing interest.

- California prep RHP Phil Bickford has been rising lately and once scout recently compared him to Jered Weaver for his length, angles and power stuff. He says, at his best, Bickford will work in the low 90's, can easily hump it up to 93-96 mph and will hit 98 with an above average slurve at 78-81 mph and advanced feel for command. Bickford has a long, projectable frame and won't turn 18 until after the draft, giving scouts even more reason to think there's more to come.

- New Jersey prep LHP Rob Kaminsky has also been coming on of late, working 88-91 when the weather was cold earlier in the year, and now sitting 90-94 and hitting 95 mph in most outings. His real weapon is a 79-83 power curve than many think is the best breaking ball in the draft and is among the harder scouts have seen all year, some grading it as a 70 pitch on the 20-80 scale. His command and changeup both flash average and scouts rave about his makeup as Kaminsky already has a charitable foundation. The Reds and nearby Yankees have been in often to see him all year and he should be gone by their back-to-back picks at #26 & #27.


Scouting Baseball Top Stories

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I had heard Clint Frazier was a longshot at #6 and Meadows was behind him, but after learning of the Marlins workout and checking in with some sources, it sounds like Frazier is out of the running and Meadows is a real option. It also sounds like Kansas City has Meadows a little higher than I had perceived previously and he's still in play for the Pirates if Reese McGuire or Trey Ball is gone, so it's now looking less likely that he mays slip to the Mets at #11. With these names and D.J. Peterson getting shuffled around in my head, it's seeming more likely that you could flip-flop Peterson (8th/KC) and Meadows (11th/NYM) in my last mock draft...until I change my mind again.

\r\n\r\n

- One of the reasons the above Meadows information doesn't surprise me is that he fits the styles of the Marlins, Mets and Royals whereas Frazier fits the style of the Red Sox, Padres and Indians better. The Marlins/Mets/Royals are more traditional drafting clubs that focus on tools, athleticism and physicality and lean to upside with high picks, often to high schoolers. Clubs like the Red Sox/Padres/Indians may draft those types as well, but are open to taking college players and those who don't have obvious, traditional profile fits. Frazier, to me, is a superior prospect, but as I've noted before has an unusual profile and doesn't have a lot of close comparables. On the other hand, Meadows looks like many previous high picks who have become big leaguers and is a little easier to project success, though that doesn't necessarily mean he's a better prospect. The industry seems to agree Frazier is slightly better but the teams that appear to prefer Meadows are exactly the teams I thought they would be months ago while the Red Sox/Padres/Indians group appear to all have Frazier over Meadows, as I do. At a juncture where rumors are flying and contradicting previous information, cues like this help let me know what to trust.

\r\n\r\n

- This one could be a big piece of news if I can get it confirmed by some other sources as the news above: the Cubs board is 1) Jonathan Gray and 2) Kris Bryant. I got this one from a solid source but good intel on the top few picks is tough at this point with those clubs understandably staying quiet to maximize surprise and leverage. Seemingly all that is coming out is info contrarian to the industry consensus and possible under slot deal-cutting, which makes a lot of sense because that's exactly what could force the best players to lower their demands. What I had heard all spring is the Cubs had Appel at #1 a good bit ahead of the other two players, so I'll need more to go on before buying this completely. So, I'm considering this info but not implementing it into my mock draft just yet, though that may change in the coming days.

\r\n\r\n

- Some fans has asked me on twitter to describe why New Mexico's D.J. Peterson is being talked about so high in the draft as a 6'0, 215 pound future first basemen playing most of his games at a high altitude. I asked a national crosschecker to compare Peterson and San Diego 6'5, 215 pound 3B Kris Bryant's power on the 20-80 scouting scale and he gave Peterson a 65 (25-30 HR annually) and Bryant a 75 (35-40 HR annually), in line with the other accounts I've received on the hitters. Bryant is likely a right fielder long-term but his physical length will limit his ability to hit for average long-term, hence the Jayson Werth comps, while Peterson's shorter stature actually increases his chances to hit for average. Bryant's power is created by his length and leverage primarily, while Peterson's comes more from raw strength. One scout said Peterson is the best hitter he's seen in 25 years and compared him to Jeff Bagwell, while another said he's more like Billy Butler. Despite his historic college season (.340/.500/.860, 31 HR), Bryant is projected as more of a .260-.275 hitter while Peterson is expected to be a notch better and had his own huge season to boot (.411/.525/.823, 18 HR). With both ending up in a corner in short order, this explains why one will go in the top 5 and the other will go in the top 12, as their upside isn't considerably different despite getting there in very different ways.

\r\n\r\n

- Ryne Stanek appears to be the big wildcard in the middle of round one now that it's looking like Sean Manaea could be working his way out of being a top pick. Stanek has been extremely inconsistent this year and, after talking to scouts, it sounds like I saw his worst start of the year: a 92-94 mph fastball that hit 95, average offspeed with below average command and body language. That guy wasn't a first rounder but, at his best, Stanek has flashed a 93-96 mph fastball and easy plus slider with a good frame, arm action and delivery. There's some buzz a few clubs in the 8-12 range could be looking at him (Royals, local to his Kansas hometown and Mariners, who took him out of high school, among others) along with some buzz he could easily slip into the 20's from teams that have seen him late and don't like to project stuff to reappear for pitchers. Florida's Jonathan Crawford has shown similar stuff to Stanek in the past but has a worse arm action and delivery, though after a down season, Crawford is trending up now and may be a momentum play and cut-rate alternative to Stanek if both are available in the second half of round one.

\r\n\r\n

Some notes I alluded to in my latest mock draft and some that just missed the cut:

\r\n

- Florida prep IF Christian Arroyo will be in the edited Top 111. He's progressed some this spring, cleaning up his body some and getting more physical, with a little better speed/strength/arm to where you could send him out as a shortstop, though his lateral quickness will limit him to second base. With his added power (still a little below average) and arm strength (average to slightly above), some clubs are speculating he could be converted to catcher, where his advanced bat will fit even better. If the conversion sticks, he'd be a very comparable prospect to Chris Okey, another Florida prep standout who looks to fit in the 25-50 pick range. That's a lot to assume, though, which is why, despite the hot rumor of Arroyo going 25th overall to the Giants, I think Arroyo fits better in round two.

\r\n

- Speaking of Okey, some signability notes are trickling out, with his and California prep LHP Matt Krook rumored to be looking for $1.5 million. One scout noted that once numbers start coming out, other players just copy them to get the same perceived value and it sounds like $1.5 million is a popular number this year, whereas he heard $1.1 million often last year. Other players rumored to be in that same basic range (some a bit higher) are Arizona prep IF Riley Unroe, Virginia prep RHP Connor Jones, Tennessee prep RHP Kyle Serrano, Minnesota prep CF Ryan Boldt and Florida RHP Karsten Whitson. Bonus uncertainty with these players could push them lower to clubs with big bonus pools that cut under slot deals early and players with easier signabilities like North Carolina prep RHP Hunter Harvey could be the beneficiaries.

\r\n

- One scouting director told me he thought Gonzaga LHP Marco Gonzales was the closest to the majors of any prospect in the whole draft class and two other scouts sitting nearby immediately agreed. Gonzales turned a lot of heads in the scouting community when he showed a plus changeup and plus command in an under-two-hour dismantling of Arkansas in early March. Gonzales is a good athlete and has a solid swing along with an average 88-91 mph fastball that he commands well and an average curveball to keep hitters honest. Seattle has been in heavy to see him and he could be a discounted option as high as #12, but likely fits in the 20's with the Rays and Cardinals owning multiple picks in that range and also showing interest.

\r\n

- California prep RHP Phil Bickford has been rising lately and once scout recently compared him to Jered Weaver for his length, angles and power stuff. He says, at his best, Bickford will work in the low 90's, can easily hump it up to 93-96 mph and will hit 98 with an above average slurve at 78-81 mph and advanced feel for command. Bickford has a long, projectable frame and won't turn 18 until after the draft, giving scouts even more reason to think there's more to come.

\r\n

- New Jersey prep LHP Rob Kaminsky has also been coming on of late, working 88-91 when the weather was cold earlier in the year, and now sitting 90-94 and hitting 95 mph in most outings. His real weapon is a 79-83 power curve than many think is the best breaking ball in the draft and is among the harder scouts have seen all year, some grading it as a 70 pitch on the 20-80 scale. His command and changeup both flash average and scouts rave about his makeup as Kaminsky already has a charitable foundation. The Reds and nearby Yankees have been in often to see him all year and he should be gone by their back-to-back picks at #26 & #27.

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Draft Central & Complete Site Archive

1st Round Mock Draft 1.0 & Mock Draft 2.0 Updated 1st Round Buzz & Full Draft Order

Top 111 Draft Prospect Rankings & Scouting Reports 1-50 & 51-111

Marginal Prospects Podcasts: Jim Callis of Baseball America, Frankie Piliere of Perfect Game & Eno Sarris of FanGraphs

Draft-Focused Chats: May 8th, May 16th & May 30th

2014 MLB Draft Previews: College Pitchers, Prep Pitchers, College Hitters, Prep Hitters

Before I roll out regional and positional previews, I wanted to offload more draft notes, mostly for players beyond the first round. If you're interested mostly in the first round, check out my mock drafts linked above. I've been to a few draft-related events with loads of the southeast's best 2014 and 2015 draft-eligible high school players, but I'll hold onto those notes until I can see more of the country in a few weeks at the PG National Showcase in Minnesota. Suffice it to say the 2014 high school previews linked above will be changing a good bit in a few weeks.

- As it always seems to happen, the day after I put out a mock draft, I get some solid new intel that would likely change some of my projected picks.

Marlins had a big (45 players) workout in Miami today. Austin Meadows only target at #6 in attendance. Good BP showing, may be real option.

— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) May 29, 2013

I had heard Clint Frazier was a longshot at #6 and Meadows was behind him, but after learning of the Marlins workout and checking in with some sources, it sounds like Frazier is out of the running and Meadows is a real option. It also sounds like Kansas City has Meadows a little higher than I had perceived previously and he's still in play for the Pirates if Reese McGuire or Trey Ball is gone, so it's now looking less likely that he mays slip to the Mets at #11. With these names and D.J. Peterson getting shuffled around in my head, it's seeming more likely that you could flip-flop Peterson (8th/KC) and Meadows (11th/NYM) in my last mock draft...until I change my mind again.

- One of the reasons the above Meadows information doesn't surprise me is that he fits the styles of the Marlins, Mets and Royals whereas Frazier fits the style of the Red Sox, Padres and Indians better. The Marlins/Mets/Royals are more traditional drafting clubs that focus on tools, athleticism and physicality and lean to upside with high picks, often to high schoolers. Clubs like the Red Sox/Padres/Indians may draft those types as well, but are open to taking college players and those who don't have obvious, traditional profile fits. Frazier, to me, is a superior prospect, but as I've noted before has an unusual profile and doesn't have a lot of close comparables. On the other hand, Meadows looks like many previous high picks who have become big leaguers and is a little easier to project success, though that doesn't necessarily mean he's a better prospect. The industry seems to agree Frazier is slightly better but the teams that appear to prefer Meadows are exactly the teams I thought they would be months ago while the Red Sox/Padres/Indians group appear to all have Frazier over Meadows, as I do. At a juncture where rumors are flying and contradicting previous information, cues like this help let me know what to trust.

- This one could be a big piece of news if I can get it confirmed by some other sources as the news above: the Cubs board is 1) Jonathan Gray and 2) Kris Bryant. I got this one from a solid source but good intel on the top few picks is tough at this point with those clubs understandably staying quiet to maximize surprise and leverage. Seemingly all that is coming out is info contrarian to the industry consensus and possible under slot deal-cutting, which makes a lot of sense because that's exactly what could force the best players to lower their demands. What I had heard all spring is the Cubs had Appel at #1 a good bit ahead of the other two players, so I'll need more to go on before buying this completely. So, I'm considering this info but not implementing it into my mock draft just yet, though that may change in the coming days.

- Some fans has asked me on twitter to describe why New Mexico's D.J. Peterson is being talked about so high in the draft as a 6'0, 215 pound future first basemen playing most of his games at a high altitude. I asked a national crosschecker to compare Peterson and San Diego 6'5, 215 pound 3B Kris Bryant's power on the 20-80 scouting scale and he gave Peterson a 65 (25-30 HR annually) and Bryant a 75 (35-40 HR annually), in line with the other accounts I've received on the hitters. Bryant is likely a right fielder long-term but his physical length will limit his ability to hit for average long-term, hence the Jayson Werth comps, while Peterson's shorter stature actually increases his chances to hit for average. Bryant's power is created by his length and leverage primarily, while Peterson's comes more from raw strength. One scout said Peterson is the best hitter he's seen in 25 years and compared him to Jeff Bagwell, while another said he's more like Billy Butler. Despite his historic college season (.340/.500/.860, 31 HR), Bryant is projected as more of a .260-.275 hitter while Peterson is expected to be a notch better and had his own huge season to boot (.411/.525/.823, 18 HR). With both ending up in a corner in short order, this explains why one will go in the top 5 and the other will go in the top 12, as their upside isn't considerably different despite getting there in very different ways.

- Ryne Stanek appears to be the big wildcard in the middle of round one now that it's looking like Sean Manaea could be working his way out of being a top pick. Stanek has been extremely inconsistent this year and, after talking to scouts, it sounds like I saw his worst start of the year: a 92-94 mph fastball that hit 95, average offspeed with below average command and body language. That guy wasn't a first rounder but, at his best, Stanek has flashed a 93-96 mph fastball and easy plus slider with a good frame, arm action and delivery. There's some buzz a few clubs in the 8-12 range could be looking at him (Royals, local to his Kansas hometown and Mariners, who took him out of high school, among others) along with some buzz he could easily slip into the 20's from teams that have seen him late and don't like to project stuff to reappear for pitchers. Florida's Jonathan Crawford has shown similar stuff to Stanek in the past but has a worse arm action and delivery, though after a down season, Crawford is trending up now and may be a momentum play and cut-rate alternative to Stanek if both are available in the second half of round one.

Some notes I alluded to in my latest mock draft and some that just missed the cut:

- Florida prep IF Christian Arroyo will be in the edited Top 111. He's progressed some this spring, cleaning up his body some and getting more physical, with a little better speed/strength/arm to where you could send him out as a shortstop, though his lateral quickness will limit him to second base. With his added power (still a little below average) and arm strength (average to slightly above), some clubs are speculating he could be converted to catcher, where his advanced bat will fit even better. If the conversion sticks, he'd be a very comparable prospect to Chris Okey, another Florida prep standout who looks to fit in the 25-50 pick range. That's a lot to assume, though, which is why, despite the hot rumor of Arroyo going 25th overall to the Giants, I think Arroyo fits better in round two.

- Speaking of Okey, some signability notes are trickling out, with his and California prep LHP Matt Krook rumored to be looking for $1.5 million. One scout noted that once numbers start coming out, other players just copy them to get the same perceived value and it sounds like $1.5 million is a popular number this year, whereas he heard $1.1 million often last year. Other players rumored to be in that same basic range (some a bit higher) are Arizona prep IF Riley Unroe, Virginia prep RHP Connor Jones, Tennessee prep RHP Kyle Serrano, Minnesota prep CF Ryan Boldt and Florida RHP Karsten Whitson. Bonus uncertainty with these players could push them lower to clubs with big bonus pools that cut under slot deals early and players with easier signabilities like North Carolina prep RHP Hunter Harvey could be the beneficiaries.

- One scouting director told me he thought Gonzaga LHP Marco Gonzales was the closest to the majors of any prospect in the whole draft class and two other scouts sitting nearby immediately agreed. Gonzales turned a lot of heads in the scouting community when he showed a plus changeup and plus command in an under-two-hour dismantling of Arkansas in early March. Gonzales is a good athlete and has a solid swing along with an average 88-91 mph fastball that he commands well and an average curveball to keep hitters honest. Seattle has been in heavy to see him and he could be a discounted option as high as #12, but likely fits in the 20's with the Rays and Cardinals owning multiple picks in that range and also showing interest.

- California prep RHP Phil Bickford has been rising lately and once scout recently compared him to Jered Weaver for his length, angles and power stuff. He says, at his best, Bickford will work in the low 90's, can easily hump it up to 93-96 mph and will hit 98 with an above average slurve at 78-81 mph and advanced feel for command. Bickford has a long, projectable frame and won't turn 18 until after the draft, giving scouts even more reason to think there's more to come.

- New Jersey prep LHP Rob Kaminsky has also been coming on of late, working 88-91 when the weather was cold earlier in the year, and now sitting 90-94 and hitting 95 mph in most outings. His real weapon is a 79-83 power curve than many think is the best breaking ball in the draft and is among the harder scouts have seen all year, some grading it as a 70 pitch on the 20-80 scale. His command and changeup both flash average and scouts rave about his makeup as Kaminsky already has a charitable foundation. The Reds and nearby Yankees have been in often to see him all year and he should be gone by their back-to-back picks at #26 & #27.

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