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This is my final ranking (not an industry consensus, though that is a factor) of the players eligible for the 2013 MLB Draft after spending the last year talking to scouts and industry insiders about the draft class. This is not predicting the order I think the players will go on draft day. For that, see the mock drafts linked above. After the rank, name, position and school for each player, I list their age on draft day (June 6th), their height/weight and bats/throws along with a realistic pick range that you can expect for them to go in the draft (barring unforeseen issues like late injuries, bad medicals or extreme signability, though I already note several tough signs that I know about below). I was going to list the advisors of all the players below, but decided not to help the NCAA ruin more things that used to be fun. See Draft Central or click on the players name for scouting videos and more content.
26. Rob Kaminsky, LHP, St. Joseph HS (NJ)
Draft Day Age: 18.76, B/L, 6'0/190, College: North Carolina, Pick Range: 21-33
Kaminsky is a smallish lefty that also gives away more plane with a drop-and-drive delivery but has feel for pitching and a knockout curveball. Some scouts grade Kaminsky's low 80's hammer as a future 70 pitch, one of the best pitches of any type in the whole draft. His velocity was up and down this spring, but was mostly 90-93, hitting 95 mph and along with command you can project to average, Kaminsky also shows an average changeup. His size and plane don't get scouts excited but a prep lefty that hits 95 with a potential plus-plus hook brings a lot to like to the table and scouts rave about his makeup; Kaminsky has his own charitable foundation for children stricken with cancer. The wackiest rumor in the top 10 picks is that the Marlins may take Kaminsky at the 6th pick, but their interest and a private workout in Miami appear to be more tied to his family's connection to Marlins Owner Jeff Loria.
Draft Day Age: 21.60, R/R, 6'1/205, Pick Range: 17-33
Crawford had top 10 pick momentum after a no hitter against a solid N.C. State lineup in the 2012 regionals, where he repeatedly hit 99 mph with a 70 slider on the 20-80 scouting scale. That appears to have been Crawford's peak: scouts were always skeptical of his sophomore year velo spike (88-91 mph in high school) as it came with a non-ideal arm action, short-strided, rigid delivery and a maxed-out frame. That said, Crawford still showed above average stuff consistently this spring: 90-93 mph fastball that hits 95 and a slider that will flash 60 at times along with an average changeup that's a 55 at times. His command is average at best and fringy most of the time, limited by his delivery. It isn't always pretty or prototypical for a first round pick, but Crawford could still be a #3 starter or closer and has a number of teams interested in the back half of the first round.
28. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Bandys HS (NC)
Draft Day Age: 18.49, R/R, 6'4/185, College: None, Pick Range: 16-37
Harvey is the son of former MLB reliever Bryan Harvey and is perceived as easy sign due to a lack of a college commitment, so he could very well go higher than I have him ranked to a budget conscious club or one that doesn't like a player for slot at their first round pick and wants to save money to chase signability types later in the draft. Harvey has some similarities to Kohl Stewart, my #6 prospect. Harvey's delivery is a little more raw than Stewart's and Harvey is a similar but slightly lesser athlete, though Harvey is taller, more projectable and still physically immature; he should still grow into his frame and athleticism further. Harvey has been sitting 90-94 and has hit 97 mph this spring with a curveball that flashes 60, but he's still learning how to consistently throw it for strikes, along with his changeup that flashes average potential. With the plus fastball-curveball combo and lots of projection left, Harvey could become a monster but much less polished arms have broken down and clubs need a little more now ability to take him in the top half of the first round.
29. Billy McKinney, CF, Plano West HS (TX)
Draft Day Age: 18.79, L/L, 6'1/195, College: TCU, Pick Range: 19-36
McKinney just hits, despite some less-than-ideal hitting mechanics. He bars out (locks his lead elbow) often, but his above average bat speed and bat control along with advanced feel for hitting, athleticism and gap power give him the bat to profile as an everyday center fielder. Clubs that like him give him a chance to stick long-term in center field, though he's more of a 55 runner than a true burner. His fringy arm isn't enough to play right field, so some clubs see him as a left fielder with below average to fringy power and think he's a tweener that belongs in the 2nd-3rd round area. McKinney actually has some similarities to Austin Meadows, but McKinney's swing isn't as pretty (though it produces much more than Meadows') and McKinney's smaller stature means less raw power but a slightly better chance to stick in center field.
30. Ian Clarkin, LHP, Madison HS (CA)
Draft Day Age: 18.31, L/L, 6'2/190, College: San Diego, Pick Range: 18-31
Clarkin is another well-known performer with a track record from a rich area for high school talent. He works 89-92 and hits 94 mph with a fastball that will vary a tick or two outing to outing. His average size, limited projection and inconsistent fastball velocity and command gives clubs varying opinions on their evaluations of Clarkin. His curveball with flash plus but often just flashes 55 potential and he shows good feel for the pitch while his changeup is a clear third pitch but also flashes above average potential at times. Clarkin has been seen a lot on the international and showcase stages and brings a broad base of skills, but his draft position will depend on how the top evaluators for each club saw him in their few viewings.
Draft Day Age: 21.11, R/R, 6'7/255, Pick Range: 15-28
Judge is a massive premium athlete who has had body comparisons dropped on him you rarely hear in baseball, like Blake Griffin and LeBron James. Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Kemp also come up as other similarly skilled and sized outfielders. The issues is that the length of Judge's limbs creates a lot of problems for him at the plate while also generating plus-plus raw power. There's too much swing-and-miss to his game and Judge doesn't tap into his power very frequently in games. Some scouts have questions his mental ability, as Judge sometimes goes up there looking to walk or hit a single and some think he may not be able to make big adjustments to his approach or swing. Judge also draws attention as an above average underway runner with a plus arm and more feel at the plate than anyone this size has ever had. In a continuing theme, Judge has some worts but looks great in a uniform and put on shows in private workouts, so he'll go higher than I have him ranked here.
32. Jon Denney, C, Yukon HS (OK)
Draft Day Age: 18.69, R/R, 6'2/205, College: Arkansas, Pick Range: 21-50
Denney burst onto the scene in last year's Area Code games with some tape measure shots: his plus raw power is among the best in the class and he hits enough for it to show up in games all summer. He showed a plus arm and the ability to be an average defender as recently as a showcase in January, but took a big step back this spring. Scouts didn't see the plus arm or a guy that could be a catcher defensively in the big leagues. Denney also didn't hit enough to make scouts ignore these facts. The top half of the first round ability that he showed before the spring is in there somewhere and it sounds like a club will gamble they can find it in the late first to comp rounds.
Draft Day Age: 21.33, R/R, 6'5/244, Pick Range: 24-55
Wilson was a high-profile prospect out of an LA-area high school and turned down seven figures from the Cardinals as a later-round pick with a big bonus demand and two Ivy League parents encouraging him to go to Stanford. He's had an up-and-down college career, battling with his approach at the plate and mechanics, like many Stanford hitters before him due to the opposite field/ground ball focused swings the coaching staff has encouraged for years. Wilson has raw tools in the same ballpark as Aaron judge and the two NorCal college bats have been grouped together for awhile. Wilson shows plus raw power, a plus arm, average speed, above average bat speed and good right field defensive instincts all in a chiseled, massive 6'5, 244 pound frame. The clubs that like Wilson will point to his steady improvement at Stanford following a high school career where he didn't hit the showcase circuit hard and hadn't seen much high-end pitching before getting to campus. While he didn't hit for power as scouts hoped on the Cape, he hit for average and slowly improved in his first exposure to wood bats. He's an interesting and unique case that some clubs will push up the board as they can pin all his issues on the Stanford Swing while others will leave him in the mid-to-late second round on their boards.
34. Oscar Mercado, SS, Gaither HS (FL)
Draft Day Age: 18.47, R/R, 6'1/170, College: Florida State, Pick Range: 21-44
Mercado is a slick-fielding shortstop with above average hands, speed and arm strength along with smooth shortstop actions. He's a rail thin 6'1 and while he may not put on much weight, he showed above average bat speed and feel for contact over the summer/fall. Then, this spring, he was awful and looked disinterested with a number of lazy flyouts at the plate and careless errors in the field. Mercado has always been a nonchalant player, like many defensive-minded shortstops before him and some clubs are discounting his poor spring to overexposure and fixable focus issues while other clubs think he profiles more as a utility guy with 40 raw power and possibly the bat to match.
35. Hunter Dozier, 3B, Stephen F. Austin
Draft Day Age: 21.79, R/R, 6'4/210, Pick Range: 21-47
Dozier is a small school shortstop with a big 6'4, 210 pound frame that will outgrow the position professionally in short order, but should easily shift over to third base. Dozier has above average hands and arm strength that should fit well at the hot corner. His average speed is good for his size, but he lacks the lateral quickness to play shortstop long-term. His calling card at the plate is above average raw power and sounds mechanics in a swing with some looseness that has produced big numbers against lesser competition this spring. Oakland and Tampa Bay are among the clubs that appear to have bought into his bat and are looking at him late in the first round.
36. Alex Balog, RHP, San Francisco
Draft Day Age: 20.89, R/R, 6'6/225, Pick Range: 24-46
Balong is a 6'6 righty that had some first round buzz entering the spring but that quickly wore off when he came out of the chute showing average stuff and spotty command. With the pressure off, Balog bounced back in a big way later in the spring, sitting 92-94 and hitting 96 mph regularly. He flashes a plus slider and curveball along with an improving changeup that is also above average at times. The Phillies, Orioles and both Bay Area clubs have shown a lot of interest down the stretch with a chance Balog finds a home in the first round.
37. Andrew Thurman, RHP, UC Irvine
Draft Day Age: 21.49, R/R, 6'3/205, Pick Range: 24-50
Thurman was a crafty righty with four pitches over the summer that started hitting 95 mph at the tail end of his Cape stint and carried it over to this spring. His above average stuff, smooth motion and advanced feel could be a league average or slightly better starter in the big leagues. Thurman's curveball and changeup are both above average at times and his slider is at least average. He gives away some plane in his drop-and-drive delivery and doesn't have a plus pitch, but should find a home in the early second round at worst.
38. Matt Krook, LHP, St. Ignatius HS (CA)
Draft Day Age: 18.63, L/L, 6'4/195, College: Oregon, Pick Range: 18-45
The 6'4 lefty was 88-91 with command issues entering the spring, then hit 95 mph with a curveball that flashed plus in his first outing. I heard this buzz at the Friday night Stanford-Fresno State game and showed up to his start the next morning with over 50 scouts where Krook was good, working 88-92 mph with an above average curveball and clean arm action, but lacking a changeup and showing spotty command. Scouts passed along that Krook went back to hitting 95 with a plus hook a few weeks later before tailing off again late in the year. Like Ian Clarkin, Krook's stock will depend on when clubs saw him and how they interpret his up-and-down arm speed that is typical from a pitcher with new velocity. Krook is one of the few players this year that has given out a hard signability number ($1.5 million) and with the local Giants heavily scouting him and bringing him in for a pre-draft workout, he looks likely to get that money at the 25th pick or a little bit later.
39. Kyle Serrano, RHP, Farragut HS (TN)
Draft Day Age: 17.92, R/R, 6'1/185, College: Tennessee, Pick Range: 24-56
Serrano is the son of the Volunteers head baseball coach (Dave) and shows the polished delivery and feel for pitching at young age that you would expect of a coach's son. Serrano's size limits his physical projection, but he has some of the best now stuff in the prep class: 90-93 mph fastball that has hit 95, plus hammer curveball and a changeup that flashes above average potential. Serrano pitched at 88-91 over the summer and there are some slight concerns his body may not be able to hold up as a starter in pro ball, but the clubs that like him have plenty of examples of smaller MLB starters to point to.
Draft Day Age: 21.68, R/R, 6'2/200, Pick Range: 25-46
Hursh is a smaller righty coming off of Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss his entire sophomore season. In addition, his slider is above average at times but inconsistent and his changeup will flash average but is a work in progress. That's all the negative, but the positive is pretty good: a 93-96 mph fastball with heavy life that hits 98 mph pretty often. There is some optimism to his ability to stick as a starter as feel often doesn't return until the second year after Tommy John. Hursh has a good delivery and acceptable arm action, so more than a few clubs see him as a potential innings eater with setup man as a fallback option. Sounds like Hursh has been generating most of his interest in the comp to early 2nd rounds.
41. Connor Jones, RHP, Great Bridge HS (VA)
Draft Day Age: 18.66, R/R, 6'3/190, College: Virginia, Pick Range: Rounds 2-10
Jones sat 89-92 mph with good command over summer/fall but took a step forward this spring, working 91-94 and hitting 95 mph regularly with a heavy sinker. His second pitch is an above average to plus changeup and his third pitch, a slider, also improved with his arm speed this spring, flashing average potential. Jones sent a letter to clubs saying he intended on going to Virginia, but I can't take any of these letters seriously until a kid that writes one actually does what Gerrit Cole did out of high school and actively ignores a club trying to offer him seven figures. As is, Jones is considered a tough sign that likely doesn't go in the first round and then probably slides into the signability purgatory players like Sean Manaea, Ryan Boldt, Jordan Sheffield and Karsten Whitson will find themselves in. Depending on how clubs perceive the demands, any of those players could go at the top of the second round, go late in the slotted picks (top 10 rounds), or even go later than that. It's worth noting that Jones comes from the same high school in Chesapeake that produced Justin Upton and Michael Cuddyer.
Draft Day Age: 21.03, R/R, 6'5/220, Pick Range: 25-39
Blair is a steady performer that stood out on the Cape and will flash three above average pitches, giving him a good shot to stick as a starter but lacking the plus pitch to definitely land in the first round. He sat in the low 90's over the summer but delivered on some of his projection this spring, sitting 90-94 and hitting 96 mph in most outings. His changeup will often flash plus and he throws a slider and curveball, but the slider is better, showing above average potential. He's still growing into his body and his longer limbs will create some problems with command at times. Like Jonathan Gray, Blair also tested positive for Adderall in the pre-draft drug test. San Francisco and Arizona have shown the most interest and it sounds like he's a target of the D'Backs at their comp round pick.
43. Cody Reed, LHP, NW Mississippi CC
Draft Day Age: 20.14, L/L, 6'5/220, College: Ole Miss, Pick Range: 30-54
Reed is a big, athletic lefty that came out of nowhere with new velocity this spring. He was in the low 80's as a senior in high school, was 88-90 mph entering the spring and on every area scout's follow list, then started regularly hitting 95 mph this spring and had a multitude of crosscheckers and directors at every game. Given that he's a bigger guy with new velocity, the stuff isn't consistent and his velocity will drop off quicker than you'd like to see. At times later in outings, he'll just be a big kid throwing three average pitches with fringy command, but at his best, his fastball and slider are above average. Reed's changeup is a third pitch but shows solid-average potential and he has a clean arm and a solid delivery. The question is if he can hold his stuff deep into games and continue progressing or if he's already maxed-out but a couple teams late in the first round are interested so it sounds like clubs are optimistic. Reed has a unique look on the mound with war paint on his face, glasses and the tail of his croakies going well down his back.
44. Ryan Boldt, CF, Red Wing HS (MN)
Draft Day Age: 18.54, L/R, 6'1/190, College: Nebraska, Pick Range: Rounds 2-5
Boldt has dynamic center field tools similar to Josh Hart with plus-plus speed, an advanced lefty stroke with gap power and good defensive instincts. His arm is average and his power is fringy, but it's an easy profile as an everyday guy if you buy into the bat. Boldt was good early in the spring and looked like a first round pick, then tailed off some late. His short spring season was going to be key in deciding where he went this spring, but poor weather postponed the beginning of his season, then a strained knee ended it before it started. Boldt is now in signability purgatory as he may not come off the board in the top 50 picks with only some team comfortable taking him that high based on a few events over the summer. The local Twins and Tigers have the most history and are rumored to be targeting him in the second round. He shouldn't get out of the top five rounds and will command a seven figure bonus.
45. Chris Okey, C, Eustis HS (FL)
Draft Day Age: 18.44, R/R, 6'0/175, College: Clemson, Pick Range: 28-62
Okey is a steady defender behind the plate with a plus arm, an athletic, compact frame and a very good chance to stick behind the plate long-term. He is a rare solid-average runner as a catcher and could play other positions, such as second base, third base or right field. Okey has a track record of hitting with wood against good pitching as a showcase circuit stalwart but has had some timing issues in his mechanics this spring that have led to struggles. He has good bat speed and feel to hit but his raw power is below average to fringy, though scouts have seen him wear out the gaps against good pitching. He doesn't have a huge upside, but a solid across the board potential every day catcher with a long track record is hard to find.
Draft Day Age: 21.48, B/R, 6'3/200, Pick Range: 24-58
Eades is an inconsistent power righty that will flash an above average to plus fastball, slider and changeup at times, looking like a potential #3 starter on his best nights. It's on his good stretches that Eades had momentum into the first round, but he hasn't been able to keep that momentum for very long. His delivery has some moving parts, his fastball is pretty straight and he will generally have flat stuff left up in the zone too often. He's a solid athlete with a good frame, so some pitching coaches think some of these things will be fixable in pro ball, but you'd like to see more consistency now. Eades will sit 91-94 and flash a 60 hard curveball at his best, but his stuff can lose a tick after a few innings and his changeup varies greatly game-to-game.
Draft Day Age: 21.58, R/R, 6'3/220, Pick Range: 25-60
The power righty started most of his career as a Horned Frog but was moved to relief to start this season. He didn't get many chances to pitch in high leverage situations as planned, so he was moved back to the rotation midway through the season and scouts are still split on whether he's a starter or reliever long-term. In relief, I've seen Mitchell sit 93-95 and hit 97 mph with an above average to plus curveball and a changeup that flashes above average, so the raw stuff is there to be a closer or starter. He has an arm-heavy delivery that negatively impacts his command in longer outings, so that combined with a tick or two less velocity (sits 90-93, hitting 95 mph) makes relief seem more likely, but he'll get every chance to stick as starter first.
48. Wil Crowe, RHP, Pigeon Forge HS (TN)
Draft Day Age: 17.74, R/R, 6'3/230, College: South Carolina, Pick Range: 27-67
Crowe came out of the gates hot early this spring with a slimmed-down physique, siting 90-94 with an above average curveball, but his stuff backed up some later in the spring and his maxed-out frame didn't give scouts a lot to dream on. That said, Crowe is one of the youngest players in the whole draft class and his velo trended up again late in the spring, hitting 95 mph again. His command and changeup are works in progress, but average command and a solid-average changeup show up in his best moments and considering Crowe is over a year younger than some of his peers. If he can continue to progress and keep his body under control, there's a #3 starter ceiling here. It's worth mentioning DollyWood, the Dolly Parton theme park, is located in Crowe's hometown of Pigeon Forge.
49. Devin Williams, RHP, Hazelwood West HS (MO)
Draft Day Age: 18.71, R/R, 6'3/165, College: Missouri, Pick Range: 28-57
The athletic righty with a clean, loose arm jumped onto the prospect radar last October in Jupiter. He worked with an 89-93 mph fastball that hit 94, a loose delivery and an above average changeup. This spring, he's taken another step forward, sitting 91-94 and hitting 96 mph and his third pitch, a slider, has progressed to where scouts could call it an average pitch. There are some rumors Williams is a target of the local Cardinals for their 1st round pick, #28. He wouldn't be a bad pick there and may not get to their next pick (#57), but seems like more of a 2nd rounder due to his inconsistent mechanics and command. Williams has some projection and athleticism that allow you to dream, but his ceiling is as a 3/4 starter. It's worth noting that whenever I tweet in response to direct questions from fans on twitter that I don't think Williams is a first round pick, Williams retweets and favorites those tweets.
Draft Day Age: 21.42, R/R, 6'3/200, Pick Range: 34-60
Lorenzen is a high profile prospect that's been known and scouted for years. He's always been scouted as both an outfielder and relief pitcher as he's either shown the tools and/or excelled on the field in both role since back in high school. Lorenzen is very streaky at the plate, including a flat-out awful showing at the plate this summer but he has had a huge spring and when you combine that with near ideal right field tools, some clubs are looking at him as early as the comp round. Lorenzen is an above average runner you could stick in center field for now with an electric plus-plus arm, a pretty right-handed swing with above average bat speed and raw power. There is some added value if he doesn't end up working out as a hitter as Lorenzen has been up to 99 mph this spring as the Titans' closer, flashing an above average to plus slider from a smooth delivery and easy arm action.