Top Ten Safest Bets

Everyone knows that it can be very dicey when evaluating and ranking prospects. One's ceiling comes into play while others bring more of a safeness to their long term projection. We rank the top ten safest bets among the Yankee prospects to become solid big leaguers down the road.

Well make it the Top 11 prospects since one has reached the big league level already.

SS, Abiatal Avelino -- It's always more difficult to project a rookie league player as a "safe bet" considering he still has a few years and even more levels to conquer before he is actually big league ready, but this Dominican native is about as safe a bet as the lower levels could provide. He is very well built, shows polished defensive and offensive skills, and an advanced maturity beyond his years -- a common combination among many of the following names.

1B, Greg Bird -- This former fifth round pick will be dissected among national pundits for the foreseeable future. Some will doubt his power potential, some will focus on his rather high number of strikeouts posted at the low-A level, and some will undersell his bat because he plays first base. Whatever the case, the fact is he is advanced hitter with superb strike zone discipline that will only get better the higher he climbs, has the bat speed to knock 95-plus mph fastballs out of the park, and the fact he does play first base should keep him healthy for a long while. He is arguably the safest bet among the Yankee prospects to be a viable big leaguer someday.

RHP, Rookie Davis -- The bats with the best strike zone discipline make the safest long-term bets and the pitchers with the best combination of mechanics and strike-throwing abilities make the safest bets, and Davis falls into the latter category. There's some real ceiling left on his secondary pitches but all are already big league average and the fastball has crept into the plus range. Throw in a consistent ability to throw strikes with all of them and at 6-foo-5 and 245 pounds he's built like an ox.

OF, Ramon Flores -- There are certainly hitters with higher ceilings than Flores in the farm system, even on his own minor league teams, but few can match his combination of picture-perfect swing, advanced strike zone discipline, and plate patience. He'll get knocked for his lack of power for the time being but there is enough average power potential that will be useable given his proclivity for hitting in big spots consistently. He is going to have a solid big league career.

2B, Gosuke Katoh -- Like Avelino, Katoh is one of the rare "safe bets" from the rookie minor league levels who already projects to be a solid big league contributor down the road and it's because of his ability to handle the bat consistently, his already solid defensive game, and his advanced maturity. The only thing that could make Katoh one of the riskier guys among these safe bets is his projectable frame -- he could use more strength to help avoid potential injuries down the road. Other than that though his game is quite advanced.

RHP, Brady Lail -- Like Davis, Lail is a bit of a rarity among the lower level pitchers. While there are guys with higher ceilings, few can match his combination of advanced mechanics, average or better big league stuff, the command to throw them seemingly where he wants them already, and incredible makeup. His frame and all of his pitches still have some ceiling left to them too, but he's got the 'it' factor to make him an incredibly safe bet among pitchers -- as safe as projecting a pitcher can be that is.

C, J.R. Murphy -- While Bird is arguably the safest bet to be a viable big leaguer someday among the Yankee position players, Murphy is the strongest bet to be a productive big leaguer. Forget the fact that his makeup is off the charts, that he's bilingual at an all important position like catcher, that he has great strike zone discipline and rarely strikes out, and that he has repeatable swing mechanics that are the model of what a swing should be like, he's also an above average to plus defensive player at the most important position on the field. He could, and really should, be one of the more consistent big league performers for many years down the road.

2B, Rob Refsnyder -- There are safer bets among baseball prospects to become big leaguers and then there's Refsnyder who could headline such a category among all middle infielders. While the athleticism, high energy style of play, tremendous make, natural intelligence, and leadership skills are all top-notch, it's his sweet swing from the right side that ties everything together so nicely. He'll get knocked for his perceived lack of power because it isn't a plus tool but like Flores the power is going to play up a bit more in games simply because he barrels the baseball more consistently than others.

RHP, Luis Severino -- While Davis and Lail are a "bit" of a rarity among lower level pitchers, Severino is the poster child. With plus stuff across the board, advanced mechanics, innate strike-throwing ability, a calm and professional demeanor on the mound, and a real business-like approach to his game and development, he offers the best blend of ceiling and safeness among the Yankee pitching prospects. His smaller 6-foot frame is the only negative and even that's splitting hairs because he has the chops to be an impact big league pitcher in some capacity just as long as he stays healthy.

C, Luis Torrens -- As good as Murphy is and as safe a bet as there is right now, even he wasn't as advanced as Torrens was at a similar point in their baseball careers. Torrens has similarly advanced swing mechanics, similar advanced strike zone discipline, and a comparable knack for hitting consistently, but his defensive game is considerably further along than Murphy's was at the same age [in fact Murphy wasn't even playing catcher yet when he was 17]. Torrens is already an above average defender, one who should continue to improve in the coming years. While like Murphy the power will continue to get knocked by critics, he won't need plus power to have a real impact in the game with his other advanced aspects.

RHP, Chase Whitley -- He gets lost in the shuffle of high-end bullpen arms simply because he doesn't throw 97 mph plus like others, but he also gets unfairly labeled a 'soft-tosser' even though he will average 92-94 mph with his fastball that shows great movement. He doesn't have the knockout breaking ball either that pundits tend to look for but, boasting a true plus-plus changeup and able to keep the ball consistently low in the zone, few offer his safe projection as a big league middle reliever, one who could pitch a ton of innings over the course of a season. That in itself is a plus tool.

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\r\n \r\n\r\nWell make it the Top 11 prospects since one has reached the big league level already.
\r\n
\r\nSS, Abiatal Avelino -- It's always more difficult to project a rookie league player as a \"safe bet\" considering he still has a few years and even more levels to conquer before he is actually big league ready, but this Dominican native is about as safe a bet as the lower levels could provide. He is very well built, shows polished defensive and offensive skills, and an advanced maturity beyond his years -- a common combination among many of the following names.
\r\n
\r\n1B, Greg Bird -- This former fifth round pick will be dissected among national pundits for the foreseeable future. Some will doubt his power potential, some will focus on his rather high number of strikeouts posted at the low-A level, and some will undersell his bat because he plays first base. Whatever the case, the fact is he is advanced hitter with superb strike zone discipline that will only get better the higher he climbs, has the bat speed to knock 95-plus mph fastballs out of the park, and the fact he does play first base should keep him healthy for a long while. He is arguably the safest bet among the Yankee prospects to be a viable big leaguer someday.
\r\n
\r\nRHP, Rookie Davis -- The bats with the best strike zone discipline make the safest long-term bets and the pitchers with the best combination of mechanics and strike-throwing abilities make the safest bets, and Davis falls into the latter category. There's some real ceiling left on his secondary pitches but all are already big league average and the fastball has crept into the plus range. Throw in a consistent ability to throw strikes with all of them and at 6-foo-5 and 245 pounds he's built like an ox.
\r\n
\r\nOF, Ramon Flores -- There are certainly hitters with higher ceilings than Flores in the farm system, even on his own minor league teams, but few can match his combination of picture-perfect swing, advanced strike zone discipline, and plate patience. He'll get knocked for his lack of power for the time being but there is enough average power potential that will be useable given his proclivity for hitting in big spots consistently. He is going to have a solid big league career.
\r\n
\r\n2B, Gosuke Katoh -- Like Avelino, Katoh is one of the rare \"safe bets\" from the rookie minor league levels who already projects to be a solid big league contributor down the road and it's because of his ability to handle the bat consistently, his already solid defensive game, and his advanced maturity. The only thing that could make Katoh one of the riskier guys among these safe bets is his projectable frame -- he could use more strength to help avoid potential injuries down the road. Other than that though his game is quite advanced.
\r\n
\r\nRHP, Brady Lail -- Like Davis, Lail is a bit of a rarity among the lower level pitchers. While there are guys with higher ceilings, few can match his combination of advanced mechanics, average or better big league stuff, the command to throw them seemingly where he wants them already, and incredible makeup. His frame and all of his pitches still have some ceiling left to them too, but he's got the 'it' factor to make him an incredibly safe bet among pitchers -- as safe as projecting a pitcher can be that is.
\r\n
\r\nC, J.R. Murphy -- While Bird is arguably the safest bet to be a viable big leaguer someday among the Yankee position players, Murphy is the strongest bet to be a productive big leaguer. Forget the fact that his makeup is off the charts, that he's bilingual at an all important position like catcher, that he has great strike zone discipline and rarely strikes out, and that he has repeatable swing mechanics that are the model of what a swing should be like, he's also an above average to plus defensive player at the most important position on the field. He could, and really should, be one of the more consistent big league performers for many years down the road.
\r\n
\r\n2B, Rob Refsnyder -- There are safer bets among baseball prospects to become big leaguers and then there's Refsnyder who could headline such a category among all middle infielders. While the athleticism, high energy style of play, tremendous make, natural intelligence, and leadership skills are all top-notch, it's his sweet swing from the right side that ties everything together so nicely. He'll get knocked for his perceived lack of power because it isn't a plus tool but like Flores the power is going to play up a bit more in games simply because he barrels the baseball more consistently than others.
\r\n
\r\nRHP, Luis Severino -- While Davis and Lail are a \"bit\" of a rarity among lower level pitchers, Severino is the poster child. With plus stuff across the board, advanced mechanics, innate strike-throwing ability, a calm and professional demeanor on the mound, and a real business-like approach to his game and development, he offers the best blend of ceiling and safeness among the Yankee pitching prospects. His smaller 6-foot frame is the only negative and even that's splitting hairs because he has the chops to be an impact big league pitcher in some capacity just as long as he stays healthy.
\r\n
\r\nC, Luis Torrens -- As good as Murphy is and as safe a bet as there is right now, even he wasn't as advanced as Torrens was at a similar point in their baseball careers. Torrens has similarly advanced swing mechanics, similar advanced strike zone discipline, and a comparable knack for hitting consistently, but his defensive game is considerably further along than Murphy's was at the same age [in fact Murphy wasn't even playing catcher yet when he was 17]. Torrens is already an above average defender, one who should continue to improve in the coming years. While like Murphy the power will continue to get knocked by critics, he won't need plus power to have a real impact in the game with his other advanced aspects.
\r\n
\r\nRHP, Chase Whitley -- He gets lost in the shuffle of high-end bullpen arms simply because he doesn't throw 97 mph plus like others, but he also gets unfairly labeled a 'soft-tosser' even though he will average 92-94 mph with his fastball that shows great movement. He doesn't have the knockout breaking ball either that pundits tend to look for but, boasting a true plus-plus changeup and able to keep the ball consistently low in the zone, few offer his safe projection as a big league middle reliever, one who could pitch a ton of innings over the course of a season. That in itself is a plus tool.
\r\n
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