Prospect Predictions For The 2014 Season

With minor league Spring Training underway, we take a stab at predicting which Yankees prospects will win which statistical categories in the 2014 season. Who will lead the farm system in home runs? Which pitcher will strike out the most batters? Which player will break into the Top Ten Yankees prospects by the end of the season? Find out all this and much, much more.

Most Wins: Bryan Mitchell - Usually the pitchers who collect the most wins are the ones who pitch at the higher levels simply because their inning limits are not as restricted as they are in the lower levels, so picking somebody like Shane Greene or Nik Turley would make a lot of sense here too. But just like Ivan Nova did at similar points in their careers, Mitchell has struggled in A-ball to get wins even though the great stuff suggests otherwise. His pitch-ability is improving, he's been the epitome of health over the years, his innings limit continues to increase, and he'll be helped by what should be a pretty potent offense in Trenton this coming season. Expect a big turnaround in wins this coming season for the power right-hander.

Most Strikeouts: Bryan Mitchell - He only tied for fifth in the farm system in strikeouts last season with 120, 26 behind overall leader Rafael De Paula. However, as noted above he should see a significant increase in innings this season and he'll have his newly added above average cutter, a pitch that was quite dominant at season's end last year, for the entire 2014 campaign. Mitchell finished just two strikeouts behind the farm system leader in 2012 and he should get back to his swing-and-miss stuff ways this coming season.

Best Walks Per Nine Innings: Daniel Camarena - We listed Camarena here [with Giovanny Gallegos] as one of the two starting pitchers who should lead this category and his 1.53 walks per nine innings last year led the farm system. While Jose Campos and his great strike-throwing abilities could make this a bit of a race, we're not about to bet against Camarena again. He's just too stingy with the free pass.

Lowest ERA: Rookie Davis - Raise your hand if you had Scottie Allen taking home the prospect ERA title last season. Liars! Seriously though, picking Shane Greene here [who finished second] would make a lot of sense but we're going with the big, talented North Carolina native here simply because everything seems to be coming together for him. He reported to camp in fantastic shape, the stuff improved immensely a year ago, he's added a brand new cutter, and he posted a combined 1.90 ERA in the short-season leagues last year. He's poised to break out in a big way this coming season.

For Relievers:

Most Saves: Nick Rumbelow - This is always one of the toughest categories to predict simply because the Yankees usually slate their higher-ceiling relievers for multiple innings. However, as Tommy Kahnle proved last season, last year's farm system saves leader and somebody who often pitched more than one inning at a time, it can be done. Rumbelow, the former LSU closer, could easily match that feat in 2014. He is all business coming out of the pen, he throws strikes, and he has plus stuff.

Lowest ERA: Danny Burawa - We're simply going with the hot hand here. Burawa was unstoppable in the second half last season, posting a miniscule 0.38 ERA over his final 18 appearances. We're expecting a full season of impact pitching from him, especially considering he was passed over by every big league organization in the Rule 5 Draft this offseason. He'll be out to prove the Yankees shouldn't overlook protecting him again and out to prove to other teams that they made a mistake not selecting him.

Most Strikeouts Per Nine Innings: Mark Montgomery - For all the negative press the critics gave Montgomery last season he still went out and struck out eleven batters per nine innings and did so in what many, including Montgomery himself, would deem a "down" year. His slider is just too good to not lead this category again in 2014.

For Position Players:

Highest Average: Rob Refsnyder - We're not going to out-think ourselves on this one. Refsnyder led the farm system in batting average last season and he'll be among the leaders once again in 2014, thanks to his superb plate patience and even better pitch recognition. Don't be surprised if somebody like Taylor Dugas makes a run at the batting title too or even somebody like Greg Bird or a resurgent Tyler Austin, but we can't go against Refsnyder's picture perfect swing here.

Most Home Runs: Greg Bird - The easier choice would be selecting last year's farm system home run leader, Peter O'Brien. And O'Brien will certainly make it a race this coming season as should last year's first round pick Aaron Judge. However, Bird, who finished with 20 home runs last season, just two behind O'Brien, really found his power stroke in the second half last season, belting 15 home runs after the All Star break. He is coming into his own power-wise and we're not so sure even the pitching-friendly confines of the Florida State League will be able to keep him in the park enough.

Highest On-Base Percentage: Greg Bird - We successfully picked Bird to lead this category a year ago and he responded with a ridiculous .428 on base percentage last season. The top three should be Bird, Refsndyer, and Dugas in some order, but we're going to stick with Bird again because he simply knows the strike zone better than most A-ball umpires.

Most Stolen Bases: Abiatal Avelino - It's not often that a short-season league player leads a cumulative category like stolen bases but that's exactly what Avelino did last season, swiping a farm system leading 28 bases in just 51 games. Few can match his aggressiveness and running instincts, and it will be interesting to see what he can do here in a full season. A darkhorse for this category could be Katoh.

The Superlatives:

First Player To Be Called Up To The Major Leagues: Fred Lewis - Lewis, the second lefty on the big league depth chart, seems poised to get just a little more seasoning in the minor leagues after Spring Training but he will be on the short list of potential relievers called upon once the need arises. Another one to keep an eye on here is second baseman Corban Joseph, especially given the recent checkered health history of Brian Roberts.

Best Comeback From Injury: Nick Goody - There's no shortage of candidates in this category given the catastrophic health state of the farm system a year ago. Tyler Austin, Ty Hensley, matt snyder, Matt Duran, etc, etc, could all have big comeback seasons after their injury plagued 2013 campaigns, but Goody was seemingly well on his way towards a quick path to the big leagues before his Tommy John surgery and has both the makeup and overall game to pick up right where he left off once he makes his full return.

Best Bounce-Back Season: Angelo Gumbs - Again, given the lackluster year down on the farm system last year the Yankees have a few candidates who could bounce back from disappointing 2013 campaigns, including Mason Williams. We're going with Gumbs, however, simply because few players want it more than he does. Combine insatiable desire with talent and a return to full health, and it's tough to not see a huge bounce-back year.

Breakout Player: Rookie Davis - We picked Greg Bird a year ago and he responded with one of the truly historic minor league seasons for the Yankees last year. We even listed Gabe Encinas a second option and he was well on his way before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. The Yankees have no shortage of breakout candidates this coming season either. We're going to flip-flop it this year and pick the pitcher as the big breakout year -- Davis seems poised for big things in the very short-term -- and we'll pick Miguel Andujar as our second option.

DSL or 'July 2nd' Sign Import That Will Shoot Up The Rankings: Jorge Mateo - We successfully picked Abiatal Avelino a year ago and now he's a Top Ten Yankee prospect. The 2014 crop doesn't look quite as deep as last year's group, however, but there are still some talented imports coming. We're going to stick at the same position and pick Jorge Mateo because of his power-speed-defense combination, although don't be surprised if Simon De La Rosa makes a big splash too.

Current Minor Leaguer That Will Break Into The Top 10: Gosuke Katoh - We picked Bird a year and we were right but we're going to steer clear of picking the 'breakout player' for this category too this time. Instead we're going with last year's second round pick because he does everything well, especially given his great plate discipline and huge makeup. Brady Lail and Miguel Andujar are solid candidates too though.

Current Non-Top 50's To Break Into The Top 50 Next Season - Obviously there will be some new names come draft time and the draft signing deadline, but amongst the names currently in the farm system who could make their way into the Top 50 prospects by season's end, there's no shortage of candidates. We nailed Brady Lail and Shane Greene a year ago but this year we're going with Dustin Fowler, Drew Bridges, Kendall Coleman, and Tyler Wade -- last year's group of high school bats look poised to make some noise this coming season. Caleb Frare, Chaz Hebert, Jordan Cote, Joey Maher, etc, are all decent bets among the younger pitchers, and if you're looking for older prospects who could get back in look no further than Jairo Heredia and Anderson Feliz if they can ever get fully healthy. An older 'sleeper' is Jose Pirela but he just might find his way into the big leagues before the season is up to still be considered a prospect, but he too seems poised for a big year.

Top Yankee Prospect For 2014: Luis Severino - The cop out prediction would be to pick Greg Bird to remain the top overall prospect in the Yankee farm system. While he remains an extremely solid bet to stick at the top spot, we'll pick somebody different just to get another name out there. And this time a year from now Luis Severino could be a household prospect name given his combination of stuff, makeup, and command.

Players To Skip A Level To Start 2013 - We successfully picked Matt Snyder and Rafael DePaula last year to skip a level, but this year the Yankees might have just one -- Eric Jagielo. His bat is just too advanced to have him start the year in low-A ball and the Yankees also need to find room for both Miguel Andujar and Matt Duran at the position as well at the lower levels.

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\r\n \r\n\r\nMost Wins: Bryan Mitchell - Usually the pitchers who collect the most wins are the ones who pitch at the higher levels simply because their inning limits are not as restricted as they are in the lower levels, so picking somebody like Shane Greene or Nik Turley would make a lot of sense here too. But just like Ivan Nova did at similar points in their careers, Mitchell has struggled in A-ball to get wins even though the great stuff suggests otherwise. His pitch-ability is improving, he's been the epitome of health over the years, his innings limit continues to increase, and he'll be helped by what should be a pretty potent offense in Trenton this coming season. Expect a big turnaround in wins this coming season for the power right-hander.
\r\n
\r\nMost Strikeouts: Bryan Mitchell - He only tied for fifth in the farm system in strikeouts last season with 120, 26 behind overall leader Rafael De Paula. However, as noted above he should see a significant increase in innings this season and he'll have his newly added above average cutter, a pitch that was quite dominant at season's end last year, for the entire 2014 campaign. Mitchell finished just two strikeouts behind the farm system leader in 2012 and he should get back to his swing-and-miss stuff ways this coming season.
\r\n
\r\nBest Walks Per Nine Innings: Daniel Camarena - We listed Camarena here [with Giovanny Gallegos] as one of the two starting pitchers who should lead this category and his 1.53 walks per nine innings last year led the farm system. While Jose Campos and his great strike-throwing abilities could make this a bit of a race, we're not about to bet against Camarena again. He's just too stingy with the free pass.
\r\n
\r\nLowest ERA: Rookie Davis - Raise your hand if you had Scottie Allen taking home the prospect ERA title last season. Liars! Seriously though, picking Shane Greene here [who finished second] would make a lot of sense but we're going with the big, talented North Carolina native here simply because everything seems to be coming together for him. He reported to camp in fantastic shape, the stuff improved immensely a year ago, he's added a brand new cutter, and he posted a combined 1.90 ERA in the short-season leagues last year. He's poised to break out in a big way this coming season.
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\r\nFor Relievers:
\r\n
\r\nMost Saves: Nick Rumbelow - This is always one of the toughest categories to predict simply because the Yankees usually slate their higher-ceiling relievers for multiple innings. However, as Tommy Kahnle proved last season, last year's farm system saves leader and somebody who often pitched more than one inning at a time, it can be done. Rumbelow, the former LSU closer, could easily match that feat in 2014. He is all business coming out of the pen, he throws strikes, and he has plus stuff.
\r\n
\r\nLowest ERA: Danny Burawa - We're simply going with the hot hand here. Burawa was unstoppable in the second half last season, posting a miniscule 0.38 ERA over his final 18 appearances. We're expecting a full season of impact pitching from him, especially considering he was passed over by every big league organization in the Rule 5 Draft this offseason. He'll be out to prove the Yankees shouldn't overlook protecting him again and out to prove to other teams that they made a mistake not selecting him.
\r\n
\r\nMost Strikeouts Per Nine Innings: Mark Montgomery - For all the negative press the critics gave Montgomery last season he still went out and struck out eleven batters per nine innings and did so in what many, including Montgomery himself, would deem a \"down\" year. His slider is just too good to not lead this category again in 2014.
\r\n
\r\nFor Position Players:
\r\n
\r\nHighest Average: Rob Refsnyder - We're not going to out-think ourselves on this one. Refsnyder led the farm system in batting average last season and he'll be among the leaders once again in 2014, thanks to his superb plate patience and even better pitch recognition. Don't be surprised if somebody like Taylor Dugas makes a run at the batting title too or even somebody like Greg Bird or a resurgent Tyler Austin, but we can't go against Refsnyder's picture perfect swing here.
\r\n
\r\nMost Home Runs: Greg Bird - The easier choice would be selecting last year's farm system home run leader, Peter O'Brien. And O'Brien will certainly make it a race this coming season as should last year's first round pick Aaron Judge. However, Bird, who finished with 20 home runs last season, just two behind O'Brien, really found his power stroke in the second half last season, belting 15 home runs after the All Star break. He is coming into his own power-wise and we're not so sure even the pitching-friendly confines of the Florida State League will be able to keep him in the park enough.
\r\n
\r\nHighest On-Base Percentage: Greg Bird - We successfully picked Bird to lead this category a year ago and he responded with a ridiculous .428 on base percentage last season. The top three should be Bird, Refsndyer, and Dugas in some order, but we're going to stick with Bird again because he simply knows the strike zone better than most A-ball umpires.
\r\n
\r\nMost Stolen Bases: Abiatal Avelino - It's not often that a short-season league player leads a cumulative category like stolen bases but that's exactly what Avelino did last season, swiping a farm system leading 28 bases in just 51 games. Few can match his aggressiveness and running instincts, and it will be interesting to see what he can do here in a full season. A darkhorse for this category could be Katoh.
\r\n
\r\nThe Superlatives:
\r\n
\r\nFirst Player To Be Called Up To The Major Leagues: Fred Lewis - Lewis, the second lefty on the big league depth chart, seems poised to get just a little more seasoning in the minor leagues after Spring Training but he will be on the short list of potential relievers called upon once the need arises. Another one to keep an eye on here is second baseman Corban Joseph, especially given the recent checkered health history of Brian Roberts.
\r\n
\r\nBest Comeback From Injury: Nick Goody - There's no shortage of candidates in this category given the catastrophic health state of the farm system a year ago. Tyler Austin, Ty Hensley, matt snyder, Matt Duran, etc, etc, could all have big comeback seasons after their injury plagued 2013 campaigns, but Goody was seemingly well on his way towards a quick path to the big leagues before his Tommy John surgery and has both the makeup and overall game to pick up right where he left off once he makes his full return.
\r\n
\r\nBest Bounce-Back Season: Angelo Gumbs - Again, given the lackluster year down on the farm system last year the Yankees have a few candidates who could bounce back from disappointing 2013 campaigns, including Mason Williams. We're going with Gumbs, however, simply because few players want it more than he does. Combine insatiable desire with talent and a return to full health, and it's tough to not see a huge bounce-back year.
\r\n
\r\nBreakout Player: Rookie Davis - We picked Greg Bird a year ago and he responded with one of the truly historic minor league seasons for the Yankees last year. We even listed Gabe Encinas a second option and he was well on his way before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. The Yankees have no shortage of breakout candidates this coming season either. We're going to flip-flop it this year and pick the pitcher as the big breakout year -- Davis seems poised for big things in the very short-term -- and we'll pick Miguel Andujar as our second option.
\r\n
\r\nDSL or 'July 2nd' Sign Import That Will Shoot Up The Rankings: Jorge Mateo - We successfully picked Abiatal Avelino a year ago and now he's a Top Ten Yankee prospect. The 2014 crop doesn't look quite as deep as last year's group, however, but there are still some talented imports coming. We're going to stick at the same position and pick Jorge Mateo because of his power-speed-defense combination, although don't be surprised if Simon De La Rosa makes a big splash too.
\r\n
\r\nCurrent Minor Leaguer That Will Break Into The Top 10: Gosuke Katoh - We picked Bird a year and we were right but we're going to steer clear of picking the 'breakout player' for this category too this time. Instead we're going with last year's second round pick because he does everything well, especially given his great plate discipline and huge makeup. Brady Lail and Miguel Andujar are solid candidates too though.
\r\n
\r\nCurrent Non-Top 50's To Break Into The Top 50 Next Season - Obviously there will be some new names come draft time and the draft signing deadline, but amongst the names currently in the farm system who could make their way into the Top 50 prospects by season's end, there's no shortage of candidates. We nailed Brady Lail and Shane Greene a year ago but this year we're going with Dustin Fowler, Drew Bridges, Kendall Coleman, and Tyler Wade -- last year's group of high school bats look poised to make some noise this coming season. Caleb Frare, Chaz Hebert, Jordan Cote, Joey Maher, etc, are all decent bets among the younger pitchers, and if you're looking for older prospects who could get back in look no further than Jairo Heredia and Anderson Feliz if they can ever get fully healthy. An older 'sleeper' is Jose Pirela but he just might find his way into the big leagues before the season is up to still be considered a prospect, but he too seems poised for a big year.
\r\n
\r\nTop Yankee Prospect For 2014: Luis Severino - The cop out prediction would be to pick Greg Bird to remain the top overall prospect in the Yankee farm system. While he remains an extremely solid bet to stick at the top spot, we'll pick somebody different just to get another name out there. And this time a year from now Luis Severino could be a household prospect name given his combination of stuff, makeup, and command.
\r\n
\r\nPlayers To Skip A Level To Start 2013 - We successfully picked Matt Snyder and Rafael DePaula last year to skip a level, but this year the Yankees might have just one -- Eric Jagielo. His bat is just too advanced to have him start the year in low-A ball and the Yankees also need to find room for both Miguel Andujar and Matt Duran at the position as well at the lower levels.
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