ITN: Prospect Analysis #21, Kevin Reese

Looking for another way to check out all the best Yankee Prospects? With complete statistic analysis, you will get a new angle on the Yankee Farm System that will cover the Top 21 Yankee Hitting Prospects. Using the sophisticated science of a statistically based player rating system, the players will be broken down and analyzed with the greatest extent. Now, let's get "Inside the Numbers" with Yankee outfielding prospect Kevin Reese.

For complete statistical analysis as an alternative to the traditional ways of scouting, look to "Inside the Numbers" for your newest angle on the Yankee hitting prospects. In this session, our focus will be on outfielding prospect Kevin Reese and extensive analysis through the statistical breakdown of his player rating and prospect value.

Prospect Rating = 5.23

In most other organizations a rating such as this would probably have not even have gotten Reese a Top 40 ranking, but in the Yankee organization he is one of their average but not great prospects. On the overall scale of ratings computed through this system, a 5.23 is fairly poor as an average prospect would score at least in a low 6 and above range. Since his days with the Padre organization his rating has taken a sharp downturn and needs a strong 2004 season to bump it up to respectability, perhaps in the upper 5's.

Statistical Analysis

Now that we have a basic idea of the weight and actual value of Kevin Reese's prospect rating, let's take a look at how and exactly why he received it.

OPS/Batting Average/OBP/ HR and RBI Percentages. To begin from the basics, this particular area severely hurt Reese's overall rating. He played the vast majority of the 2003 season with AA Trenton where he compiled a low OPS of 694, which would be considered less than satisfactory by most standards. Obviously, a heavily weighted factor of his OPS was his weak .366 SLG. Percentage which also reflected his lack of home run power. In order to raise his overall rating, this will have to be on the rise. While his OBP was not horrendous, it was not up to the standards of what prospect of high stature would be forced to have. As noted by his lowly slugging percentage, Kevin Reese showed very little in the way of power and put up only 4 home runs in exactly 309 at bats. This not only hurts his rating but his chances of ever being a major league player. The lack of power has hurt him not only statistically but in his future as well. In regards to his RBI production, it is becoming more and more obvious as we dissect the components of this formula to more of an extent that Reese has just not been a productive player and going by a recurring theme, it seems that he may remain this way. In his 309 at bats, Reese only managed 21 RBI. There were no redeeming parts of this formula component and statistically speaking, this is certainly something to be improved upon in 2004.

Speed/Baserunning and Rate of Opportunity. Besides being very weak in just about all of the production related categories, Kevin Reese had much of his prospect rating accredited to his speed and baserunning ability. However, the level of opportunity he had o steal these bases was also low if you consider his OBP. Reese was not on base incredibly often noting his .328 OBP and therefore did not have a very high actual opportunity. On the other hand, he was still able to rack up some statistical support from one of his strongest formula components. The University of San Diego graduate was able to steal 27 bases with Trenton last season, while only being caught 5 times. By creating himself a solid success rate, he was able to push his overall rating up slightly, and also became a well known base stealing threat. With 27 stolen bases and a success rate of almost 85%, Reese utilized his overall opportunity to steal bases despite having a low OBP. However, this is where one of the turning points occurred, with his 27 stolen bases, he likely could have successfully nabbed several more if he was able to ore consistently reach base. So statistically speaking, an area that is a strong point for this young player actually came out as a disappointment that stemmed from one of his larger weaknesses.(OBP)

Expected Age versus Actual Age. As noted in the "Inside the Numbers" preliminary article, age is weighed heavily in this prospect evaluation system. While age is not a statistical category per say, a prospect's age must be considered in terms of what level they play at in the farm system. Since the expected age for each level has already been established let's take a look at the age of Kevin Reese in comparison to his level in the Farm System. The reason this is done is simple. It is based upon the challenge a player is presented with. Hypothetically speaking, a 25 year old player in A ball should not create much of a challenge. That player is expected to be at least in AAA ball and the indication that is shown by the fact that he is only in A ball is that he has given the impression that he doesn't have the skill to go higher or he can't deal with the challenge of the next level. So enough with our hypothetical example and let's see how Kevin Reese stacks up against this component of the system.

Kevin Reese 2003 Organizational Level. (Where player compiled most ABs) - AA
Kevin Reese 2003 Age - 25
Expected Age for Player in AA - 22

Age Analysis

One thing that is easily noticeable is that Kevin Reese's age is much higher than would be expected for a AA player. Actually, he is three years older to be exact. Therefore it has to be realized, that the challenged is lessened when you consider that he is playing at a lower level than his age dictates that he should. At the age of 25, it is obvious that he should be playing at AAA or even in the big leagues by now. The bottom line here is that his prospect status and rating is diminished greatly by the fact that there is less of a challenged presented and that at the age of 25, he has not proven that he can perform at the next level. He needs to make a jump this year when he turns 26, but there is no guarantee that when he does get the challenge of moving up the ladder, that we will be able to perform. As a result of this, his player rating took a hard hit. Until he proves he can perform at a higher level, his player rating will not be making any big leaps.

Prospect Rating Summarization

Statistical Strengths. To much disappointment, there are less strengths than there are weaknesses in the game of Kevin Reese. However, in terms of statistics, his greatest strength would certainly be his speed and base stealing ability. He will make a very good and rangy outfielder (as he was last year) that will always have a solid glove which will reflect in his fielding percentage. To add to that, he has excellent speed that will also help him rack up excellent stolen base numbers at a very high success rate. But to improve these numbers even more, he will have to allow himself more of an opportunity to use his strength by getting on base more.

Statistical Weaknesses. In the most obvious case, Kevin Reese has one large glaring weakness that greatly affects his prospect status and his denominated rating from our formula. This weakness is noticeably his production and power numbers. Nowadays, big league clubs expect a corner outfielder like Reese to put up at least respectable numbers in these categories. However, Reese has gained a reputation of being just the opposite in the past year. In general, his entire offensive ability with the bat is what broke his rating to what it was. As a result, the only thing that was able to salvage him in a statistical point of view was his speed, baserunning, and fielding abilities.

Expectations for the Upcoming year. The upcoming 2004 season seems that it will only be more of the same and in statistical theory it will probably be even worse for his prospect rating. The reason for this is simply because Reese will probably remain in AA Trenton to at least begin the season and that will further diminish his prospect value at his advanced age of 26.

Closing Analogy. The basic outlook for Kevin Reese is very bleak and even more so when you study it statistically. Up until the past season or two, the case would have been much different and his rating would have been extraordinarily higher. But stated much more obviously last season, his rating hasn't been the same and has mostly declined as a result of his lack of production and his extremely slow movement through the farm system. The bottom line is that he only ranks as an average prospect in a very weak farm system.

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