Yankees Prospect Over/Unders

In Las Vegas fashion, we set various over/under marks for various Yankees prospects in 2010 and will continue the discussion in our subscribers-only forum. What is the over/under for Jesus Montero's home run total? How low will Jose Ramirez's ERA be this upcoming season? How many strikeouts will D.J. Mitchell have in 2010? We discuss all this and more.

Over/Unders

ERA Mark For Jose Ramirez - 3.25: Yes he dominated the Gulf Coast League last year, posting a scintillating 1.48 ERA and a perfect 6-0 record in the United States. However, the long-season leagues are completely different. He has the plus fastball-plus changeup combination, as well as the strike-throwing ability to keep South Atlantic League batters in check. Should he further develop the breaking ball, the ERA could be very tiny. UNDER.

Batting Average For Kyle Higashioka - .290: We got this one wrong last year when we predicted he'd go over the .290 mark in 2009. But how he only hit .253 with the Staten Island Yankees while displaying one of the best offensive approaches in the organization remains one of the bigger mysteries. He's been working hard on getting stronger this offseason and his batting average in 2010 should be more reflective of his overall hitting skills. OVER.

Home Run Total For Brandon Laird - 17: He hit 23 home runs while playing his home games in a pronounced pitcher's park two years ago before seeing that total dip down to 13 last season with the Tampa Yankees. Playing in front of very few fans can weigh on a player and we're expecting him to be charged up playing in front of thousands of fans each night again. OVER.

Number Of Levels For David Phelps - 1.5: He was simply dominant over two minor league levels last year, especially once he got moved up to the Florida State League, posting a ridiculous 1.17 ERA with the Tampa Yankees. He got just seven starts there, however, and even though he might be ready for the Double-A level in 2010, he might have to start the year in Tampa. He'll find his way up to Trenton at some point though because the polish is there. OVER.

Error Total for Eduardo Nunez - 25: Despite his insane defensive abilities, Nunez has always been prone to high error totals, mostly because he feels he can make any play in the field. He had 33 errors with the Trenton Thunder last year, but a bunch of them came early in the year. We think now that he has received some experience playing in the cold weather of the northeast early in the year, he should cut down on those. UNDER.

Number Of Strikeouts For D.J. Mitchell - 150: Even with all of their depth of talented pitchers in the farm system, the Yankees didn't have one pitcher record a 150-strikeout season last year. In fact, Lance Pendleton led the farm system with 130. But Mitchell, who finished second with 125 strikeouts, should see a bump in innings in 2010 and he finally has his secondary pitches working extremely well. OVER.

Stolen Base Total For Slade Heathcott - 30: Only one Yankee farmhand eclipsed this total last season - Abraham Almonte. And while Heathcott managed to get into just three games in his debut season last year, he projects to hit atop the Charleston lineup in 2010. As long as he gets on-base at a good clip, this should be a very achievable goal for him because he has a great combination of speed and intensity. OVER.

ERA Mark For Graham Stoneburner - 3.50: Last year's 14-round pick got just a couple of innings under his belt, but he looked flat-out dominant during the Instructional League. While his developmental mantra will be focusing on the changeup in 2010, his other two pitches are just too good for him not to have a very good first full season. UNDER.

Home Run Total For Jesus Montero - 17: Montero has clubbed 17 home runs in each of the last two seasons. In fact, we predicted he would go over this total a year ago and we would have not pushed this one had it not been for the broken finger he sustained on the first day in August. And even though he projects to move up to Triple-A Scranton in 2010, he should finally eclipse this total. OVER.

Number Of Strikeouts For Jeremy Bleich - 150: Bleich had a rough go of it somewhat in his first full season last year, especially once he got to Double-A. He posted just a 6.65 ERA with the Trenton Thunder even though he saw an uptick in his velocity and better secondary pitches. He still managed to strike out 116 batters last season and we're betting on a bit more confidence in 2010. OVER.

Batting Average For J.R. Murphy - .290: He hit .333 in his debut season, albeit it was just nine games with the Gulf Coast League Yankees. And even though he won't turn 19 years old until later this season, he has one of the most mature offensive approaches in the farm system. There will surely be a learning curve with catching everyday, but he is just too good a hitter not to come close to this mark in his first full season. OVER.

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\r\n \r\n\r\nOver/Unders
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\r\nERA Mark For Jose Ramirez - 3.25: Yes he dominated the Gulf Coast League last year, posting a scintillating 1.48 ERA and a perfect 6-0 record in the United States. However, the long-season leagues are completely different. He has the plus fastball-plus changeup combination, as well as the strike-throwing ability to keep South Atlantic League batters in check. Should he further develop the breaking ball, the ERA could be very tiny. UNDER.
\r\n
\r\nBatting Average For Kyle Higashioka - .290: We got this one wrong last year when we predicted he'd go over the .290 mark in 2009. But how he only hit .253 with the Staten Island Yankees while displaying one of the best offensive approaches in the organization remains one of the bigger mysteries. He's been working hard on getting stronger this offseason and his batting average in 2010 should be more reflective of his overall hitting skills. OVER.
\r\n
\r\nHome Run Total For Brandon Laird - 17: He hit 23 home runs while playing his home games in a pronounced pitcher's park two years ago before seeing that total dip down to 13 last season with the Tampa Yankees. Playing in front of very few fans can weigh on a player and we're expecting him to be charged up playing in front of thousands of fans each night again. OVER.
\r\n
\r\nNumber Of Levels For David Phelps - 1.5: He was simply dominant over two minor league levels last year, especially once he got moved up to the Florida State League, posting a ridiculous 1.17 ERA with the Tampa Yankees. He got just seven starts there, however, and even though he might be ready for the Double-A level in 2010, he might have to start the year in Tampa. He'll find his way up to Trenton at some point though because the polish is there. OVER.
\r\n
\r\nError Total for Eduardo Nunez - 25: Despite his insane defensive abilities, Nunez has always been prone to high error totals, mostly because he feels he can make any play in the field. He had 33 errors with the Trenton Thunder last year, but a bunch of them came early in the year. We think now that he has received some experience playing in the cold weather of the northeast early in the year, he should cut down on those. UNDER.
\r\n
\r\nNumber Of Strikeouts For D.J. Mitchell - 150: Even with all of their depth of talented pitchers in the farm system, the Yankees didn't have one pitcher record a 150-strikeout season last year. In fact, Lance Pendleton led the farm system with 130. But Mitchell, who finished second with 125 strikeouts, should see a bump in innings in 2010 and he finally has his secondary pitches working extremely well. OVER.
\r\n
\r\nStolen Base Total For Slade Heathcott - 30: Only one Yankee farmhand eclipsed this total last season - Abraham Almonte. And while Heathcott managed to get into just three games in his debut season last year, he projects to hit atop the Charleston lineup in 2010. As long as he gets on-base at a good clip, this should be a very achievable goal for him because he has a great combination of speed and intensity. OVER.
\r\n
\r\nERA Mark For Graham Stoneburner - 3.50: Last year's 14-round pick got just a couple of innings under his belt, but he looked flat-out dominant during the Instructional League. While his developmental mantra will be focusing on the changeup in 2010, his other two pitches are just too good for him not to have a very good first full season. UNDER.
\r\n
\r\nHome Run Total For Jesus Montero - 17: Montero has clubbed 17 home runs in each of the last two seasons. In fact, we predicted he would go over this total a year ago and we would have not pushed this one had it not been for the broken finger he sustained on the first day in August. And even though he projects to move up to Triple-A Scranton in 2010, he should finally eclipse this total. OVER.
\r\n
\r\nNumber Of Strikeouts For Jeremy Bleich - 150: Bleich had a rough go of it somewhat in his first full season last year, especially once he got to Double-A. He posted just a 6.65 ERA with the Trenton Thunder even though he saw an uptick in his velocity and better secondary pitches. He still managed to strike out 116 batters last season and we're betting on a bit more confidence in 2010. OVER.
\r\n
\r\nBatting Average For J.R. Murphy - .290: He hit .333 in his debut season, albeit it was just nine games with the Gulf Coast League Yankees. And even though he won't turn 19 years old until later this season, he has one of the most mature offensive approaches in the farm system. There will surely be a learning curve with catching everyday, but he is just too good a hitter not to come close to this mark in his first full season. OVER.
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