2010 MLB Draft Signability Probability Odds

The institution is back! Now that 1st round pick Cito Culver has signed, how about ultra-athletic 41st round pick, Tym Pearson? We tackle each signability case in the 2010 draft and give the chances of them actually agreeing to a contract by the signing deadline.

It's time for the annual signing odds entry, ladies and gentlemen. This will focus on all of the signability cases predicated on youth and/or talent. I won't include guys just because they are at a JUCO or because they are a DES, but instead focus on all the guys who are either in high school or in college but have eligibility/talent leverage.

Keep in mind that anything above 20% signability odds on a later round guy is actually pretty good. For example, I obviously believe that the Yankees will sign at least a few of their late-round cases, but at this early point in the signing period it's very difficult to pinpoint exactly which ones. Because of this I can't put my 100% faith in signing those guys on individual players, but instead on a general group of players that I believe is in consideration for the money/roster spots. As a rule of thumb, anything over 50% indicates a greater probability that the specific player will sign than not.

Also, as I come into more information and flesh some of these situations out I'll post blog updates with the news that is causing me to change the odds on specific players. Enjoy...


1st round pick, Cito Culver, SS (HS): The switch-hitting, up-the-middle athlete recently gave back his scholarship offer to UMD and will be heading to Tampa in the next few days. As reported earlier in the blog, Culver has reached an agreement with the Yankees, but still has to pass his physical. Additionally, he can't officially sign his contract until Sunday, when he has graduated high school. The only thing that prevents this from happening is for something catastrophic to come up in the medical exam. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 99.9%

2nd round pick, Angelo Gumbs, CF/2B (HS): Another athletic prep in the middle of the diamond, Gumbs is committed to USC but is willing to go the JUCO route if he doesn't sign with the Yankees. Historically a player that is willing to forego a 4-year offer in favor of a JUCO means that he's serious about getting the right money that he's asking, but in a way it also shows his hand with regards to his desire to sign a professional contract. The kid wants to play, so in the end I think the Yankees get this done, as they usually do when drafting anyone involved with Damon's alma mater. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 90%

3rd round pick, Robert Segedin, RF (So): Currently my favorite pick of the draft, Segedin has been rated in some circles as the best college hitter in the draft outside of Bryce Harper. Given that he is a DES he has extra leverage one would think that this would be a difficult signing, but after speaking with a few people it appears that this may not be the case. Not only did the Yankees work him out pre-draft, they also were able to have him checked out medically, something that indicates a very strong mutual affinity for getting something done. Considering Segedin is from Bergen County (NJ) and grew up a Yankees fan, this isn't much of a surprise. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 90%

4th round pick, Mason Williams, CF (HS): The wiry and Williams is another fantastic up-the-middle athlete, but had allegedly been looking for a bonus in the $2 million range. In multiple conversations I've had with Yankees brass, I don't think they had any intention of giving anyone in this draft $2 million outside of a few top-tier talents that were off the board by the time they made their first pick, so needless to say Williams' demands won't be met. However, given that Damon Oppenheimer has said that he has shown a noticeable interest in playing professionally, and also that they were willing to use a 4th round pick on his selection, I think that there is a favorable chance that the two sides can reach an overslot agreement to pull Williams away from the Gamecocks. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 65%

5th round pick, Tommy Kahnle, RHP (Jr): I put Kahnle in here because I've seen several people lump him in with Burawa and Jacob as hard throwing relievers involved with the Cape. The reality of the situation is that Kahnle is a junior reliever selected in the 5th round, so his signability shouldn't be in question. He's already said that he's received an idea of what the Yankees are offering, but will go pitch on the Cape to see if he can get them them increase it. I'd be very surprised if this one didn't happen. CHANCE OF SIGNING –95%

6th round pick, Gabe Encinas, RHP (HS): Reaching as high as 95 MPH on the gun this past year, Encinas is an intriguing blend of pitchability, projectibility, and stuff. His commitment to Loyola Marymount shouldn't be too much of an obstacle, and he strikes me as having a realistic number that the Yankees already know they can meet – similar to Brett Gerritse in last year's draft. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 80%

7th round pick, Jake Anderson, CF (HS): Another high school kid in the middle of the diamond, Anderson is the product of area scout Andy Cannizaro's hard work in his home state of state of Louisiana. Very slightly built now but with a good frame for projection (6'1") he had close contact with the Yankees up to the draft and expects to sign. His commitment to a JUCO only increases the odds of this smooth swinging lefty signing. He should be one of the first HS kids to sign, if the information I have is correct. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 90%

9th round pick, Taylor Morton, RHP (HS): This one is pretty easy for me. After speaking with Morton it became clear that the Yankees really liked what they saw in this kid during his pre-draft workout, and he is what I like to call a JST, which is when the Yankees tell a signability case to "just sit tight." In my numerous interviews with Damon that you've read over the years, he'll usually indicate with a signability case that they want to see him play ball in the summer, and then will make a run at signing him if they like what they see. When a signability case is able to play but chooses not to AND the Yankees don't indicate that they need to see the player in summer action in order to sign him, it's a great indication that there is an understanding in place between the two parties. Over the years of conversations with signability cases I've heard slightly different ways of saying it, but "just sit tight" has been the most frequent and descriptive. Morton performing very well at his pre-draft workout, the Yankees being very familiar with his number, and him not playing summer ball all scream JST to me. This appears very similar to Bryan Mitchell's situation last year, so I'd be shocked if this one didn't happen as the deadline approaches. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 90%

10th round pick, Ben Gamel, CF (HS): At first glance, a HS player who is taken in the 10th round, has a commitment to a good baseball school, and is the brother of a Major Leaguer would figure to be a very difficult sign…which is what makes the general tone of Gamel's comments so surprising. From everything he's said in the local press to the quotes in our draft interview here at PP, it really sounds like he not only wants to sign, but has a good mutual understanding with the organization about what it is going to take. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 70%

12th round pick, Daniel Burawa, RHP (So): The power-armed righty is the enigma of the draft at this point. There are things that point to him going back to school, such as his DES status and him being taken about 8 rounds after he was probably hoping. At the same he's a local kid from NY, he's got a lot of helium right now, and the Yankees can pay him if he merits it. Burawa will be pitching on the Cape this summer, and Damon has been quoted as saying they want to see if he "earns some money," so I'd say this one has a David Robertson feel to it, with a bit more probability due to the local component. If Burawa really impresses, he'll be in pinstripes. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 45%

13th round pick, Tyler Austin, OF (HS): Here's another JST in my view. The Yankees have been on Austin for a while now, including having him in for a predraft workout on the Saturday before the draft. Tyler has made it known that he would love to sign and is a big Yankee fan, so I think he's sitting tight until the team feels comfortable pushing his bonus through. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 90%

14th round pick, Travis Dean, RHP (HS): Much like Kyle McKenzie last year, Matt Hyde and Damon Oppenheimer have made Dean a marked man in his home state of Massachusetts. All kidding aside, the beanpole RHP's commitment to Kennesaw State (a good baseball school for those not following the college game) is stronger than it appears at first glance, and the odds of the Yankees meeting a high schooler's number in the 14th round go down if they already commit to two similar guys, Encinas and Morton, in the earlier rounds. There's a ton of projection in his frame, but it will also probably come at a hefty price. Not a probable signing, but not a longshot, either. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 25%

16th round pick, Evan Rutckyj, LHP (HS): The outsized Canadian lefty has traveled across North America in the past year putting his skills on display as he becomes more and more comfortable with pitching. While he has a huge number, I'm still dubious about the Yankees meeting such a big figure, and I strongly suspect that as the summer plays out the two parties will come to a more agreeable figure if Rutckyj pitches well. Having been in touch with him after he was drafted, he told me that he thinks something will work out because it's up to his performance and he wants it badly. From speaking with him before the draft , I personally think that Rutckyj would much rather sign than go to school, and I think that will manifest itself as we approach the deadline. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 50%

18th round pick, Kevin Jacob, RHP (So): Jacob is in the same category as Burawa, in that he's a DES who hasn't pitched a lot, but has big velocity and the chance to be an impact reliever. He'll also be going to the cape as a member of the MTM (Make That Money) camp. As cool as it would be if he ended up a Yankee I'd honestly be surprised if he signs, with the deciding factor being his agent, Scott Boras. If Jacob pitches well enough for the Yankees to sign him, you'd have to expect the number to increase, too – like a dog chasing his tail. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 20%

19th round pick, Kevin Jordan, CF (HS): There are a lot of dominoes that have to fall in order for this summer to end with Jordan in pinstripes. Because of the illness that robbed him of the majority of his senior year, the Yankees are going to need to see Jordan play this summer before even considering him. If he plays and plays well, then the issue of meeting his number becomes front and center, but it will be later in the signing period at that point and the Yankees are likely to have several prep OF already in the fold. Adding in some of the IFA guys coming stateside, and the question of ABs comes up, so there are really only two scenarios where I can see Jordan signing: 1) He says that he wants to play pro, lowers his number, and essentially lets the Yankees sign him on their own terms, or 2) he plays so unbelievably well that the Yankees have no choice but to find the money to meet a lofty demand and sign him. While possible, these two options are both extremes, so even though I'd love to see his athleticism and pretty swing in the farm, I don't see this playing out that way at this point. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 5%

27th round pick, Martin Viramontes, RHP (So): A big, hard throwing righty who is represented by Boras , Viramontes told PP in an interview that he thought he would be drafted by the Yankees back in 2007 out of high school, but ended up going to the Angels in the 11th round, passing up a contract, and attending Loyola Marymount. He obviously stayed on the Yankees radar as they tracked him over the last three years, and despite missing most of 2009 with an elbow injury, they felt taking a shot at him was worth it this season. He put up some tremendously crooked numbers this past season despite showing mid 90s heat, so you have to think those performance issues coupled with the money demands and the threat of Boras are what pushed him down so far in the draft. He'll also be in the MTM club, pitching on the Cape this summer. If he signs it will be right at the deadline, and this is another one that isn't probable, but at the same time isn't a total longshot. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 25%

28th round pick, Josh Dezse, RHP (HS): Like Taylor Morton, Dezse is a tall (6'5"), well built kid who is relatively new to pitching, so he offers a ton of projectability. He had a good relationship to area scout Mike Gibbons leading up to the draft, and has made it clear that he's eager to sign if the Yankees can approximate his number. The odds of this one happening are certainly greater than a shot in the dark, as I learned when I spoke with Dezse recently. An interesting twist is that he was scheduled to have knee surgery at the end of June, but has pushed it back after speaking with the Yankees. He told me that after speaking with crosschecker Tim Kelly recently he's actually confident that the Yankees are going to make a very real run at him. In the end he still has to perform to make it worth the team's while. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 51%

29th round pick, Stewart Ijames, OF (So): Another DES with a very good bat and the mentality to just hit, hit, and hit some more, Ijames will be playing on the Cape this summer as part of the MTM club. He earned his extra year with a medical redshirt after trouble with his shoulder in 2009, but he has displayed very good power since coming back. As a lefty college bat with good pop and ceiling still to go, Ijames could be a fairly quick riser through the system and give the Yankees a solid OF prospect in short order. Hopefully he tears up the Cape and forces the team's hand, but I think the odds of him signing at this point are fairly low. CHANCE OF SIGNING 20%

30th round pick, Zach Nuding, RHP (J2): Nuding is a big, burly guy (6'4", 250 lbs) who evokes some comparison to last year's JUCO fireballer, Brett Bruening because he's heavy on the velo but light on the command. Very raw and still with a good amount of projection despite already topping 97 MPH, Nuding has a scholarship waiting for him at Texas A&M if the Yankees can't hit his number, which he'll try to earn pitching in a collegiate league this summer. He closed for the Victoria Generals in the Texas Collegiate League last summer, but it remains to be seen where he'll be pitching in 2010. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 15%

33rd round pick, Michael Hachadorian, RHP (J2): Yet another 2010 draftee that reminds me of a guy from the past couple of years, Hachadorian is very similar to 2008 Yankee draftee Justin Harper. Both had great size (Hachadorian is 6'5"), attended a JUCO in the west, a commitment to SDSU, and very poor command. You know there has to be some good talent there if he's getting recruited by a program like SDSU, but having been at two JUCOs in two years (Whitter College and Mesa College)it is fairly safe to assume that his number is going to far exceed his immediate value at this point, and even then there may not be room for him come August. Much like Harper, Hachadorian is a good bet to go unsigned due to a his lack of refinement on the mound. CHANCE OF SIGNING –10%

34th round pick, Keenan Kish, RHP (HS): Kish is, without a doubt, the Evan Deluca of the 2010 draft class. Though they don't throw with the same arm, they both went into their drafts with exceptional relationships with northeast area scout, Matt Hyde. When selected as a major signability guy in the 2009 draft, Deluca was told that if he pitched well they'd make a run at him because they really liked him as a person and thought he had the mentality that they were looking for in a Yankee prospect. The only question was whether they could justify the significant number that was on the table to buy him out of San Diego, and Kish is in a similar situation with his great opportunity at the University of Florida. Deluca went out, pitched in a college league, started flashing mid-90s, and the next thing you know the Yankees found an extra $500K just hours before the draft ended, making the talented lefty a Yankee. In speaking with Damon it seems that they would be willing to make the same concession with Kish if he proves he's worth it because they like him just that much – Damon can't say enough positive things about him, and has told the righty directly that he wants to make a serious run at his number if the summer goes well. At this point it's all up to the player. If he shows very well this summer, the Yankees WILL sign him. CHANCE OF SIGNING 45%

37th round pick, Cameron Hobson, LHP (So): Hobson is the Aaron Meade of this year's class. A college LHP from the middle of the country, Hobson is a DES that will pitch on the Cape to try and entice the Yankees into making an offer near his number. Like Meade last year, the Yankees will be looking for Hobson to really and truly stand out in both performance and stuff in order to sign him, and like Meade last year, just having good results won't get him his offer. Hobson has shown the ability to pitch and be dominant at Dayton, but he sits in the high 80s at this point so I'd expect the need for a velo bump to see him come to terms by the deadline. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 10%

38th round pick, James Ramsay, CF (HS): Ramsay was a local kid to the Yankees scouting headquarters in Tampa, so they had a few people keeping a close eye on him after he came back from knee surgery this year. He's more of a fallback option at this point, as both the money and ABs available for another high school OF will likely be greatly diminished when it comes time to make a decision on the USF commit. His talent is the type that could be better suited to develop at college, because the Yankees just may not have the space. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 5%

39th round pick, Jaycob Brugman, OF (HS): Brugman is the seventh of the eight LHB high school OF the Yankees took in the 2010 draft. As with Ramsay, he's likely a fallback option or someone that really needs to impress in order to sign. CHANCE OF SIGNING –5%

40th round pick, Mike Gerber, CF (HS): Yet another late-round, high school CF, Gerber profiles similarly to Ramsay as a guy that could benefit from going to college. He didn't have any personal contact with the team prior to being selected, so it's clear that this was more of a move to have access to Gerber's rights if he really turns it on this summer, rather than a selection based on a concerted effort to sign him. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 5%

41st round pick, Tym Pearson, CF (J1): An uber-athlete just dripping with raw skill, Pearson has hasn't fully transitioned his God-given talents to the baseball field. The CF from Oregon was picked in the 35th round as a high school senior by the Rockies last year, but instead opted for a community college and the chance to re-enter the draft this year. I don't think that it would take much to land this fast-twitch guy in the system, but the Yankees may simply not have the room when it comes down to a decision. CHANCE OF SIGNING –25%

42nd round pick, Mike O'Neill, OF (HS): It was shocking to see O'Neill say in his interview on PP that he actually expects to sign, but I still remain cautious. I've seen a couple of times over the years kids say that they're eager and ready to go in the afterglow of the excitement their selection causes, only to back off their words a bit when negotiations begin in earnest. Additionally, the Yankees aren't going to put the nephew of one the franchise's most beloved players in a sub-optimal situation, so I have my doubts that they'll sign him up if they don't have the ABs for him. I still strongly question him signing, but at the same time his unexpected stance has brought the odds considerably from the typical late round HS OF. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 40%

43rd round pick, Kyle Hunter, LHP (So): A lefty with a projectable frame and a good changeup, Hunter is yet another in the MTM club this summer. I suspect that the Yankees will be looking specifically for a velo/stuff bump rather than good performance from him in order to meet his asking price, so I don't think the odds are in his favor. He'll likely return to KSU and be redrafted next year. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 5%

48th round pick, Alex Brown, RHP (HS): Brown was the pitcher of the year in his high school's division, but is a real project. He doesn't possess great height, and he's very thin at this point, so unless he's willing to take a minimal bonus and basically do a year of instructs/EST, he's best off attending Pima Community College where he's committed, filling out, improving his stuff, and then re-entering the draft in a year or two. To be clear, I have not seen any scouting reports on Brown, so I'm basing this one seeing video of him and the round in which he was selected. He's clearly a project, and in the late rounds the Yankees typically don't sign those guys. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 5%

49th round pick, Will Arthur, OF (HS): MLB.com lists Arthur at 6'2", 185 lbs, and to be honest, that's about the extent of the information available on the lefty swinging, righty throwing OF from Ontario. Yet again Arthur reminds me of a recent Yankee draftee, this time 2009 pick Judd Golson. While he could be a generic, raw, late-round HS OF, he could also be a guy like Golson, who was an underscouted athlete that was nowhere near the showcase circuit. I'll work to find out more information on this one, but in the meanwhile I can tell you that he's either a real longshot guy who could really stand some college seasoning OR he's an athlete that almost no one else but the Yankees was in on, and they're going to bring him in as a deep developmental guy. If it's the former, the odds are almost zero, but if it's the latter they increase to the point that a signing is likely. CHANCE OF SIGNING – Absolutelynoclue %

50th round pick, Matt Rice, C (Jr): The last pick in the entire draft, Rice is a cerebral catcher who is more strongly geared to academics than most other players 1,500+ players selected prior to him this year. He does a little bit of everything, but because scouts believe that he's entirely focused on completing his mechanical engineering degree the consensus is that he won't sign as a junior. Contrary to initial reports, Rice is not associated at all with the Rhodes Scholarship program at this point. The guy wants to finish his degree and the Yankees are chock full of catching, so this one is extremely doubtful. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 1%

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\r\n \r\n\r\nIt's time for the annual signing odds entry, ladies and gentlemen. This will focus on all of the signability cases predicated on youth and/or talent. I won't include guys just because they are at a JUCO or because they are a DES, but instead focus on all the guys who are either in high school or in college but have eligibility/talent leverage.

\r\n\r\nKeep in mind that anything above 20% signability odds on a later round guy is actually pretty good. For example, I obviously believe that the Yankees will sign at least a few of their late-round cases, but at this early point in the signing period it's very difficult to pinpoint exactly which ones. Because of this I can't put my 100% faith in signing those guys on individual players, but instead on a general group of players that I believe is in consideration for the money/roster spots. As a rule of thumb, anything over 50% indicates a greater probability that the specific player will sign than not.

\r\n\r\nAlso, as I come into more information and flesh some of these situations out I'll post blog updates with the news that is causing me to change the odds on specific players. Enjoy...


\r\n\r\n1st round pick, Cito Culver, SS (HS): The switch-hitting, up-the-middle athlete recently gave back his scholarship offer to UMD and will be heading to Tampa in the next few days. As reported earlier in the blog, Culver has reached an agreement with the Yankees, but still has to pass his physical. Additionally, he can't officially sign his contract until Sunday, when he has graduated high school. The only thing that prevents this from happening is for something catastrophic to come up in the medical exam. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 99.9%

\r\n2nd round pick, Angelo Gumbs, CF/2B (HS): Another athletic prep in the middle of the diamond, Gumbs is committed to USC but is willing to go the JUCO route if he doesn't sign with the Yankees. Historically a player that is willing to forego a 4-year offer in favor of a JUCO means that he's serious about getting the right money that he's asking, but in a way it also shows his hand with regards to his desire to sign a professional contract. The kid wants to play, so in the end I think the Yankees get this done, as they usually do when drafting anyone involved with Damon's alma mater. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 90%

\r\n3rd round pick, Robert Segedin, RF (So): Currently my favorite pick of the draft, Segedin has been rated in some circles as the best college hitter in the draft outside of Bryce Harper. Given that he is a DES he has extra leverage one would think that this would be a difficult signing, but after speaking with a few people it appears that this may not be the case. Not only did the Yankees work him out pre-draft, they also were able to have him checked out medically, something that indicates a very strong mutual affinity for getting something done. Considering Segedin is from Bergen County (NJ) and grew up a Yankees fan, this isn't much of a surprise. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 90%

\r\n4th round pick, Mason Williams, CF (HS): The wiry and Williams is another fantastic up-the-middle athlete, but had allegedly been looking for a bonus in the $2 million range. In multiple conversations I've had with Yankees brass, I don't think they had any intention of giving anyone in this draft $2 million outside of a few top-tier talents that were off the board by the time they made their first pick, so needless to say Williams' demands won't be met. However, given that Damon Oppenheimer has said that he has shown a noticeable interest in playing professionally, and also that they were willing to use a 4th round pick on his selection, I think that there is a favorable chance that the two sides can reach an overslot agreement to pull Williams away from the Gamecocks. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 65%

\r\n5th round pick, Tommy Kahnle, RHP (Jr): I put Kahnle in here because I've seen several people lump him in with Burawa and Jacob as hard throwing relievers involved with the Cape. The reality of the situation is that Kahnle is a junior reliever selected in the 5th round, so his signability shouldn't be in question. He's already said that he's received an idea of what the Yankees are offering, but will go pitch on the Cape to see if he can get them them increase it. I'd be very surprised if this one didn't happen. CHANCE OF SIGNING –95%

\r\n6th round pick, Gabe Encinas, RHP (HS): Reaching as high as 95 MPH on the gun this past year, Encinas is an intriguing blend of pitchability, projectibility, and stuff. His commitment to Loyola Marymount shouldn't be too much of an obstacle, and he strikes me as having a realistic number that the Yankees already know they can meet – similar to Brett Gerritse in last year's draft. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 80%

\r\n7th round pick, Jake Anderson, CF (HS): Another high school kid in the middle of the diamond, Anderson is the product of area scout Andy Cannizaro's hard work in his home state of state of Louisiana. Very slightly built now but with a good frame for projection (6'1\") he had close contact with the Yankees up to the draft and expects to sign. His commitment to a JUCO only increases the odds of this smooth swinging lefty signing. He should be one of the first HS kids to sign, if the information I have is correct. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 90%

\r\n9th round pick, Taylor Morton, RHP (HS): This one is pretty easy for me. After speaking with Morton it became clear that the Yankees really liked what they saw in this kid during his pre-draft workout, and he is what I like to call a JST, which is when the Yankees tell a signability case to \"just sit tight.\" In my numerous interviews with Damon that you've read over the years, he'll usually indicate with a signability case that they want to see him play ball in the summer, and then will make a run at signing him if they like what they see. When a signability case is able to play but chooses not to AND the Yankees don't indicate that they need to see the player in summer action in order to sign him, it's a great indication that there is an understanding in place between the two parties. Over the years of conversations with signability cases I've heard slightly different ways of saying it, but \"just sit tight\" has been the most frequent and descriptive. Morton performing very well at his pre-draft workout, the Yankees being very familiar with his number, and him not playing summer ball all scream JST to me. This appears very similar to Bryan Mitchell's situation last year, so I'd be shocked if this one didn't happen as the deadline approaches. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 90%

\r\n10th round pick, Ben Gamel, CF (HS): At first glance, a HS player who is taken in the 10th round, has a commitment to a good baseball school, and is the brother of a Major Leaguer would figure to be a very difficult sign…which is what makes the general tone of Gamel's comments so surprising. From everything he's said in the local press to the quotes in our draft interview here at PP, it really sounds like he not only wants to sign, but has a good mutual understanding with the organization about what it is going to take. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 70%

\r\n12th round pick, Daniel Burawa, RHP (So): The power-armed righty is the enigma of the draft at this point. There are things that point to him going back to school, such as his DES status and him being taken about 8 rounds after he was probably hoping. At the same he's a local kid from NY, he's got a lot of helium right now, and the Yankees can pay him if he merits it. Burawa will be pitching on the Cape this summer, and Damon has been quoted as saying they want to see if he \"earns some money,\" so I'd say this one has a David Robertson feel to it, with a bit more probability due to the local component. If Burawa really impresses, he'll be in pinstripes. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 45%

\r\n13th round pick, Tyler Austin, OF (HS): Here's another JST in my view. The Yankees have been on Austin for a while now, including having him in for a predraft workout on the Saturday before the draft. Tyler has made it known that he would love to sign and is a big Yankee fan, so I think he's sitting tight until the team feels comfortable pushing his bonus through. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 90%

\r\n14th round pick, Travis Dean, RHP (HS): Much like Kyle McKenzie last year, Matt Hyde and Damon Oppenheimer have made Dean a marked man in his home state of Massachusetts. All kidding aside, the beanpole RHP's commitment to Kennesaw State (a good baseball school for those not following the college game) is stronger than it appears at first glance, and the odds of the Yankees meeting a high schooler's number in the 14th round go down if they already commit to two similar guys, Encinas and Morton, in the earlier rounds. There's a ton of projection in his frame, but it will also probably come at a hefty price. Not a probable signing, but not a longshot, either. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 25%

\r\n16th round pick, Evan Rutckyj, LHP (HS): The outsized Canadian lefty has traveled across North America in the past year putting his skills on display as he becomes more and more comfortable with pitching. While he has a huge number, I'm still dubious about the Yankees meeting such a big figure, and I strongly suspect that as the summer plays out the two parties will come to a more agreeable figure if Rutckyj pitches well. Having been in touch with him after he was drafted, he told me that he thinks something will work out because it's up to his performance and he wants it badly. From speaking with him before the draft , I personally think that Rutckyj would much rather sign than go to school, and I think that will manifest itself as we approach the deadline. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 50%

\r\n18th round pick, Kevin Jacob, RHP (So): Jacob is in the same category as Burawa, in that he's a DES who hasn't pitched a lot, but has big velocity and the chance to be an impact reliever. He'll also be going to the cape as a member of the MTM (Make That Money) camp. As cool as it would be if he ended up a Yankee I'd honestly be surprised if he signs, with the deciding factor being his agent, Scott Boras. If Jacob pitches well enough for the Yankees to sign him, you'd have to expect the number to increase, too – like a dog chasing his tail. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 20%

\r\n19th round pick, Kevin Jordan, CF (HS): There are a lot of dominoes that have to fall in order for this summer to end with Jordan in pinstripes. Because of the illness that robbed him of the majority of his senior year, the Yankees are going to need to see Jordan play this summer before even considering him. If he plays and plays well, then the issue of meeting his number becomes front and center, but it will be later in the signing period at that point and the Yankees are likely to have several prep OF already in the fold. Adding in some of the IFA guys coming stateside, and the question of ABs comes up, so there are really only two scenarios where I can see Jordan signing: 1) He says that he wants to play pro, lowers his number, and essentially lets the Yankees sign him on their own terms, or 2) he plays so unbelievably well that the Yankees have no choice but to find the money to meet a lofty demand and sign him. While possible, these two options are both extremes, so even though I'd love to see his athleticism and pretty swing in the farm, I don't see this playing out that way at this point. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 5%

\r\n27th round pick, Martin Viramontes, RHP (So): A big, hard throwing righty who is represented by Boras , Viramontes told PP in an interview that he thought he would be drafted by the Yankees back in 2007 out of high school, but ended up going to the Angels in the 11th round, passing up a contract, and attending Loyola Marymount. He obviously stayed on the Yankees radar as they tracked him over the last three years, and despite missing most of 2009 with an elbow injury, they felt taking a shot at him was worth it this season. He put up some tremendously crooked numbers this past season despite showing mid 90s heat, so you have to think those performance issues coupled with the money demands and the threat of Boras are what pushed him down so far in the draft. He'll also be in the MTM club, pitching on the Cape this summer. If he signs it will be right at the deadline, and this is another one that isn't probable, but at the same time isn't a total longshot. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 25%

\r\n28th round pick, Josh Dezse, RHP (HS): Like Taylor Morton, Dezse is a tall (6'5\"), well built kid who is relatively new to pitching, so he offers a ton of projectability. He had a good relationship to area scout Mike Gibbons leading up to the draft, and has made it clear that he's eager to sign if the Yankees can approximate his number. The odds of this one happening are certainly greater than a shot in the dark, as I learned when I spoke with Dezse recently. An interesting twist is that he was scheduled to have knee surgery at the end of June, but has pushed it back after speaking with the Yankees. He told me that after speaking with crosschecker Tim Kelly recently he's actually confident that the Yankees are going to make a very real run at him. In the end he still has to perform to make it worth the team's while. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 51%

\r\n29th round pick, Stewart Ijames, OF (So): Another DES with a very good bat and the mentality to just hit, hit, and hit some more, Ijames will be playing on the Cape this summer as part of the MTM club. He earned his extra year with a medical redshirt after trouble with his shoulder in 2009, but he has displayed very good power since coming back. As a lefty college bat with good pop and ceiling still to go, Ijames could be a fairly quick riser through the system and give the Yankees a solid OF prospect in short order. Hopefully he tears up the Cape and forces the team's hand, but I think the odds of him signing at this point are fairly low. CHANCE OF SIGNING 20%

\r\n30th round pick, Zach Nuding, RHP (J2): Nuding is a big, burly guy (6'4\", 250 lbs) who evokes some comparison to last year's JUCO fireballer, Brett Bruening because he's heavy on the velo but light on the command. Very raw and still with a good amount of projection despite already topping 97 MPH, Nuding has a scholarship waiting for him at Texas A&M if the Yankees can't hit his number, which he'll try to earn pitching in a collegiate league this summer. He closed for the Victoria Generals in the Texas Collegiate League last summer, but it remains to be seen where he'll be pitching in 2010. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 15%

\r\n33rd round pick, Michael Hachadorian, RHP (J2): Yet another 2010 draftee that reminds me of a guy from the past couple of years, Hachadorian is very similar to 2008 Yankee draftee Justin Harper. Both had great size (Hachadorian is 6'5\"), attended a JUCO in the west, a commitment to SDSU, and very poor command. You know there has to be some good talent there if he's getting recruited by a program like SDSU, but having been at two JUCOs in two years (Whitter College and Mesa College)it is fairly safe to assume that his number is going to far exceed his immediate value at this point, and even then there may not be room for him come August. Much like Harper, Hachadorian is a good bet to go unsigned due to a his lack of refinement on the mound. CHANCE OF SIGNING –10%

\r\n34th round pick, Keenan Kish, RHP (HS): Kish is, without a doubt, the Evan Deluca of the 2010 draft class. Though they don't throw with the same arm, they both went into their drafts with exceptional relationships with northeast area scout, Matt Hyde. When selected as a major signability guy in the 2009 draft, Deluca was told that if he pitched well they'd make a run at him because they really liked him as a person and thought he had the mentality that they were looking for in a Yankee prospect. The only question was whether they could justify the significant number that was on the table to buy him out of San Diego, and Kish is in a similar situation with his great opportunity at the University of Florida. Deluca went out, pitched in a college league, started flashing mid-90s, and the next thing you know the Yankees found an extra $500K just hours before the draft ended, making the talented lefty a Yankee. In speaking with Damon it seems that they would be willing to make the same concession with Kish if he proves he's worth it because they like him just that much – Damon can't say enough positive things about him, and has told the righty directly that he wants to make a serious run at his number if the summer goes well. At this point it's all up to the player. If he shows very well this summer, the Yankees WILL sign him. CHANCE OF SIGNING 45%

\r\n\r\n37th round pick, Cameron Hobson, LHP (So): Hobson is the Aaron Meade of this year's class. A college LHP from the middle of the country, Hobson is a DES that will pitch on the Cape to try and entice the Yankees into making an offer near his number. Like Meade last year, the Yankees will be looking for Hobson to really and truly stand out in both performance and stuff in order to sign him, and like Meade last year, just having good results won't get him his offer. Hobson has shown the ability to pitch and be dominant at Dayton, but he sits in the high 80s at this point so I'd expect the need for a velo bump to see him come to terms by the deadline. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 10%

\r\n38th round pick, James Ramsay, CF (HS): Ramsay was a local kid to the Yankees scouting headquarters in Tampa, so they had a few people keeping a close eye on him after he came back from knee surgery this year. He's more of a fallback option at this point, as both the money and ABs available for another high school OF will likely be greatly diminished when it comes time to make a decision on the USF commit. His talent is the type that could be better suited to develop at college, because the Yankees just may not have the space. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 5%

\r\n39th round pick, Jaycob Brugman, OF (HS): Brugman is the seventh of the eight LHB high school OF the Yankees took in the 2010 draft. As with Ramsay, he's likely a fallback option or someone that really needs to impress in order to sign. CHANCE OF SIGNING –5%

\r\n40th round pick, Mike Gerber, CF (HS): Yet another late-round, high school CF, Gerber profiles similarly to Ramsay as a guy that could benefit from going to college. He didn't have any personal contact with the team prior to being selected, so it's clear that this was more of a move to have access to Gerber's rights if he really turns it on this summer, rather than a selection based on a concerted effort to sign him. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 5%

\r\n41st round pick, Tym Pearson, CF (J1): An uber-athlete just dripping with raw skill, Pearson has hasn't fully transitioned his God-given talents to the baseball field. The CF from Oregon was picked in the 35th round as a high school senior by the Rockies last year, but instead opted for a community college and the chance to re-enter the draft this year. I don't think that it would take much to land this fast-twitch guy in the system, but the Yankees may simply not have the room when it comes down to a decision. CHANCE OF SIGNING –25%

\r\n42nd round pick, Mike O'Neill, OF (HS): It was shocking to see O'Neill say in his interview on PP that he actually expects to sign, but I still remain cautious. I've seen a couple of times over the years kids say that they're eager and ready to go in the afterglow of the excitement their selection causes, only to back off their words a bit when negotiations begin in earnest. Additionally, the Yankees aren't going to put the nephew of one the franchise's most beloved players in a sub-optimal situation, so I have my doubts that they'll sign him up if they don't have the ABs for him. I still strongly question him signing, but at the same time his unexpected stance has brought the odds considerably from the typical late round HS OF. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 40%

\r\n43rd round pick, Kyle Hunter, LHP (So): A lefty with a projectable frame and a good changeup, Hunter is yet another in the MTM club this summer. I suspect that the Yankees will be looking specifically for a velo/stuff bump rather than good performance from him in order to meet his asking price, so I don't think the odds are in his favor. He'll likely return to KSU and be redrafted next year. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 5%

\r\n48th round pick, Alex Brown, RHP (HS): Brown was the pitcher of the year in his high school's division, but is a real project. He doesn't possess great height, and he's very thin at this point, so unless he's willing to take a minimal bonus and basically do a year of instructs/EST, he's best off attending Pima Community College where he's committed, filling out, improving his stuff, and then re-entering the draft in a year or two. To be clear, I have not seen any scouting reports on Brown, so I'm basing this one seeing video of him and the round in which he was selected. He's clearly a project, and in the late rounds the Yankees typically don't sign those guys. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 5%

\r\n49th round pick, Will Arthur, OF (HS): MLB.com lists Arthur at 6'2\", 185 lbs, and to be honest, that's about the extent of the information available on the lefty swinging, righty throwing OF from Ontario. Yet again Arthur reminds me of a recent Yankee draftee, this time 2009 pick Judd Golson. While he could be a generic, raw, late-round HS OF, he could also be a guy like Golson, who was an underscouted athlete that was nowhere near the showcase circuit. I'll work to find out more information on this one, but in the meanwhile I can tell you that he's either a real longshot guy who could really stand some college seasoning OR he's an athlete that almost no one else but the Yankees was in on, and they're going to bring him in as a deep developmental guy. If it's the former, the odds are almost zero, but if it's the latter they increase to the point that a signing is likely. CHANCE OF SIGNING – Absolutelynoclue %

\r\n50th round pick, Matt Rice, C (Jr): The last pick in the entire draft, Rice is a cerebral catcher who is more strongly geared to academics than most other players 1,500+ players selected prior to him this year. He does a little bit of everything, but because scouts believe that he's entirely focused on completing his mechanical engineering degree the consensus is that he won't sign as a junior. Contrary to initial reports, Rice is not associated at all with the Rhodes Scholarship program at this point. The guy wants to finish his degree and the Yankees are chock full of catching, so this one is extremely doubtful. CHANCE OF SIGNING – 1%
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