AWP: After 2 Losses, Where Do Mavs Rate?

The Mavs have lost a disappointing two in a row, but the greatest loss was Dirk going down with a sprained knee. The Mavs' greatest need at this point is to get Dirk healthy and back in the lineup, while putting together some wins in the meantime. So what has the NBA's action over the last two weeks of 2010 revealed about the teams? Let's take a look at our Adjusted Winning Percentage Rankings…

The following are the results for all NBA play through December 30, 2010:

Adjusted Winning Percentage

Last

Change

1

Spurs

80.4

3

2

2

Mavericks

79.5

2

0

3

Celtics

78.4

1

-2

4

Heat

71.6

5

1

5

Bulls

63.5

6

1

6

Jazz

62.6

4

-2

7

Magic

62.6

9

2

8

Thunder

60.7

8

0

9

Lakers

57.9

11

2

10

Nuggets

57.6

7

-3

11

Hornets

56.2

10

-1

12

Hawks

52.0

12

0

13

Knicks

48.5

14

1

14

Trailblazers

48.4

13

-1

15

Rockets

47.4

19

4

16

Grizzlies

44.9

15

-1

17

Pacers

43.0

16

-1

18

Suns

42.6

18

0

19

76ers

42.6

20

1

20

Bucks

41.6

17

-3

21

Raptors

35.2

21

0

22

Warriors

34.5

23

1

23

Clippers

33.6

26

3

24

Pistons

31.1

24

0

25

Bobcats

29.0

22

-3

26

Nets

28.7

25

-1

27

Wolves

26.5

27

0

28

Wizards

25.5

28

0

29

Cavaliers

20.8

29

0

30

Kings

19.3

30

0

What do we see in these rankings?

  • We see only four teams above the 65.0% mark. This number matters because over the last decade the average AWP of the NBA Champion was around 70.0% with the only team dipping below the 65.0% mark being the anomalous 2006 Miami Heat. It is very early in the season and these rankings can change a lot, but it seems that our NBA champion this year will almost certainly come from a team in the 65.0+ bracket. With more than ¼ of the season behind us the Celtics, Mavs, Spurs, and Heat are the only teams that are exhibiting championship pedigree. From our stand point we wouldn't be surprised if this stayed the same over the rest of the season with the possible addition of the Magic and Lakers.

  • The Celtics, Mavs, and Spurs have continued to separate themselves as the elite teams in the league with all three teams having an AWP above 78.0 while only Miami crests the 70.0 mark. Both the Celtics (Garnett and Rondo) and the Mavs (Nowitzki) have been hit by the injury bug and will thereby face a big test in the coming couple weeks.

  • The Mavs are still in 2nd place in the league in AWP while the Spurs and Celtics keep switching positions around them. Why are the Mavs still second even with two straight losses? They have been absolutely stellar on the road (11-1) with the best road record in the NBA, have played THE toughest schedule in the league, and are a wonderful 13-4 against winning teams.

The Big Gainers:

1) Rockets: +4 spots

2) Clippers: +3 spots

3) Spurs: +2 spots

4) Magic: +2 spots

5) Lakers: +2 spots

The Big Losers:

1) Nuggets: -3 spots

2) Bucks: -3 spots

3) Bobcats: -3 spots

4) Celtics: -2 spots

5) Jazz: -2 spots

A comparison to some other rankings around the league…

AWP

W/L

Hollinger

Stein

Average

Spurs

1

1

3

3

2.0

Mavericks

2

3

5

1

2.8

Celtics

3

2

2

2

2.3

Heat

4

4

1

4

3.3

Bulls

5

6

4

5

5.0

Jazz

6

6

10

8

7.5

Magic

7

9

7

6

7.3

Thunder

8

6

8

9

7.8

Lakers

9

5

6

7

6.8

Nuggets

10

11

9

13

10.8

Hornets

11

12

15

10

12.0

Hawks

12

10

13

11

11.5

Knicks

13

12

17

12

13.5

Trailblazers

14

14

14

16

14.5

Rockets

15

15

11

14

13.8

Grizzlies

16

16

12

19

15.8

Pacers

17

17

21

21

19.0

Suns

18

17

19

15

17.3

76ers

19

19

16

17

17.8

Bucks

20

20

18

18

19.0

Raptors

21

23

24

25

23.3

Warriors

22

21

22

22

21.8

Clippers

23

25

20

20

22.0

Pistons

24

24

23

23

23.5

Bobcats

25

22

28

27

25.5

Nets

26

26

25

24

25.3

Wolves

27

29

27

26

27.3

Wizards

28

27

26

28

27.3

Cavaliers

29

28

30

29

29.0

Kings

30

30

29

30

29.8

Hollinger's rankings continue to love the glamorous Heat while undervaluing the Mavs' wonderful accomplishments against the league's toughest schedule. Stein's rankings had the Mavs at number one before their back-to-back losses to the Raptors and Spurs so we expect them to fall come this Monday.

So what about the Mavs?

The Mavs should celebrate their wonderful success against good teams and their immaculate road record. They have played the league's toughest schedule and find themselves very well positioned as we head into 2011. Dirk—and Roddy!—need to get healthy and they need to be more consistent at home, but all things considered there is much to be thankful for as they look back at their accomplishments in this portion of 2010.

How The AWP Was Created and How it Works.

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