Counting "likely-to-be-earned incentives,'' Brewer's deal right now is on the Mavs cap for a total of $9.177 million. Folks, that is more than 25 percent higher than the originally-reported total of "around $7.2 million."
I am told the deal has no team option and that there is no "non-guaranteed" clause, but it does include incentives considered "likely" when the deal
was written that could ultimately go unearned and reduce the actual payout.
My unverified assumption is that the majority of the difference between the leaked numbers at time of signing and the cap hit we're seeing is due to those incentives that at the time the contract was written were deemed "likely-to-be achieved" by the league.
At $7.2 million, I thought the deal was a weird overpayment for player I judge to be a scrub. As it turns out, the $7.2 million or so appears to be hard money, and the deal could go even higher.
As some of you are aware, I originally thought the Dallas Mavericks overpaid for Brewer when they negotiated to bring the former No. 7 overall pick to Dallas after his Knicks buyout. That was in the context of the fuzzy numbers we had to work with at three years and $7 million or so total. But we all wondered if it might look different once we got more details.
Details about his performance. And details about his dollars.
Now we have some of both.
In particular, since $7 million sounds so extravagant to me for a player with his skill set, I wondered if there might be some contractual givebacks in one way or another in the event he doesn't play as well as hoped. For example, are there team options that could be declined? Or are there non-guaranteed amounts amid the $7 mil that could be erased?
For who knows why, getting the contract's numbers nailed down has been way more difficult than usual. But I'm close enough to them to share an approximate answer, and we're finding out that indeed the numbers might have been off -- but instead, again, they are even bigger than we thought.
As I understand it, it now appears that the 3 years are all guaranteed. (Yes, I think that is worth of bold font.) 'm also hearing there are incentives in the deal and if we only include what are categorized by the NBA as "likely to be earned" incentives, the total will exceed $9M. At the moment the numbers (including earned incentives) should look something like this:
Lowest estimate ...Medium Estimate...Highest Estimate
$2,777,778 ...............$2.8M ....................$2,812,500
$3.222,222 .............$3.248M .................$3,262,500
If Brewer turns out to be what he's already shown over his career, a one dimensional "defensive specialist" whose contributions are spotty, then this is going to be a massive overpayment, and with the possibility of a hard cap looming, it could be a deal the Mavs come to regret.
Hopefully it won't unfold like that. Hopefully he'll be better than the following paragraphs from Michael Dugat that summarize his time as a Mav:
Brewer's stint officially spans 11 games, though four of those contests never saw him leave the bench, including being kept in street clothes as "inactive" for the first time Thursday night when Dallas hosted his former team, the Minnesota Timberwolves.
During his nearly nine minutes per game (in the seven he has played), he has averaged 3 points while shooting a respectable 53.3 percent from the floor, including 33 percent behind the arc. And, while he has earned an average of 1.3 trips to the free-throw line a night, giving him the third highest total on a per-minute basis on the Mavs roster in an admittedly tiny sample size, he has only converted 44 percent of those attempts.
In addition to his scoring numbers, he averages 1.1 rebounds, has a PER of 7.2 and a defensive rating of 106 (which puts him in the bottom half of the roster).
I think it's fair for MDug to try to find some positives in that. And I know that Fish's conversations with the Mavs coaching staff reveals its collective believe that with some mechanical work, they think they can fix
Brewer as a shooter. And Fish also gets great reports about the quality of the kid. Yes, he can grow, and yes, he's a project. (Though that notion is in conflict with the idea, perpetuated here on DB.com and elsewhere, that he might be starter-level.) All good and well.
But bidding $9 million for nothing more than what he's shown so far in his career? That makes no sense to me. I definitely think the Mavs overpaid, and in light of their claims that Brewer had even bigger offers, it feels to me like they got auction fever.