Mavs Tuesday Donuts: Will Home Cookin' Help?
DONUT 1: Let's begin with the Jet Thesis:
"We're at home," Jason Terry said over the weekend. "What does that mean? It means our building is going to be crazy. We're going to play with a lot of energy, and some of those shots we're missing better go down, because that's what home-court advantage is all about."
Well, we know how that worked in Game 3. And it inspired us to take a quick look at what the difference in how several of the Dallas Mavericks have performed both on the road and here at home.
DONUT 2: We'll begin with the basic team stats from the regular season. The Mavs were 29-12 at home and 28-13 on the road in the regular season. At home, they scored 101.5 points per game while shooting 48.2 percent from the floor and 36.7 percent behind the arc. On the road, they averaged 99 points on 46.7 percent shooting, including 36.3 percent from deep.
Slightly better across the board offensively, with similar stats on defense, Dallas gave up 95.2 points at home compared to 96.8 on the road. They also held opponents to a lower field-goal percentage at home (44.7) than on the road (45.3), though they did allow a slight uptick in 3-point percentage (34.9 percent at home, 33.8 percent away).
So, so far, team-wise, Jet may have been onto something. This is just a nuts-and-bolts peek, but here are the numbers for a few players in the regular season and playoffs, both home and away.
DONUT 3: Dirk Nowitzki in the regular season:
At Home: 22.9 Pts, 54.5 FG%, 41.5 3PT%, 88.4 FT%, 7.0 Reb., 2.4 Assists, 2.2 TOs
On Road: 23.1 Pts, 49.1 FG%, 37.2 3PT%, 89.8 FT%, 7.1 Reb., 2.8 Assists 1.6 TOs
Dirk Nowitzki in the playoffs:
At Home: 30.2 Pts, 53.2 FG%, 66.7 3PT%, 94.9 FT%, 8.0 Reb., 2.7 Assists, 3.1 TOs
On Road: 26.6 Pts, 48.3 FG%, 44.0 3PT%, 92.3 FT%, 7.9 Reb., 2.7 Assists, 3.3 TOs
Interestingly enough, we quickly see that Dirk hits a higher percentage of his shot attempts both in the regular season and playoffs when playing at home, other than from the free-throw line (during the regular season).
Dirk missing a late shot? Dirk needing to do even more, if even more is needed? Yes, this is the way it works. At the same time, The UberMan is obviously the least of this club's problems.
DONUT 4: Shawn Marion in the regular Season:
At Home: 13.0 Pts, 51.9 FG%, 16.7 3PT%, 81.3 FT%, 6.8 Reb., 1.3 Assists, 1.6 TOs
On Road: 12.0 Pts, 52.2 FG%, 00.1 3PT%, 70.6 FT%, 7.0 Reb., 1.5 Assists, 1.6 TOs
Shawn Marion in the playoffs:
At Home: 10.2 Pts, 41.8 FG%, 00.0 3PT%, 88.9 FT%, 5.9 Reb., 2.6 Assists, 1.8 TOs
On Road: 13.6 Pts, 51.5 FG%, 00.0 3PT%, 85.7 FT%, 7.1 Reb., 2.0 Assists, 1.6 TOs
Marion shows a marked improvement on the road in the playoffs when compared to home playoff games. Part of this is due to his recent string of solid games, including the first two contests of the Finals, though the trend does stretch back to the opening of these playoffs. On the road, Marion has failed to score in double digits only twice, at home he failed to do so five times in one less opportunity.
DONUT 5: Jason Kidd in the regular season:
At Home: 7.8 Pts, 38.2 FG%, 35.4 3PT%, 93.1 FT%, 4.5 Reb., 8.4 Assists, 2.2 TOs
On Road: 7.9 Pts, 34.2 FG%, 32.8 3PT%, 83.3 FT%, 4.2 Reb., 8.0 Assists, 2.3 TOs
Jason Kidd in the playoffs:
At Home: 9.7 Pts, 38.5 FG%, 34.0 3PT%, 81.8 FT%, 4.8 Reb., 8.9 Assists, 2.0 TOs
On Road: 9.6 Pts, 40.0 FG%, 39.2 3PT%, 76.9 FT%, 4.8 Reb., 6.2 Assists, 3.2 TOs
In Kidd's stats we see a much more efficient creator at home in the playoffs (note the rise in assists and drop in turnovers), but his shot has actually been truer on the road, other than free throws. In the regular season, he was similar across the board regardless of where he played. Game 3 marked the first game this postseason that Dallas has lost when Kidd totaled at least 10 assists.
"I would love to score 20 points, but I've got guys who can put the ball in the basket,'' Kidd said. "I got to do a better job of putting my teammates in a position to be successful. I think that's the one thing from here on out I'm going to try to do.''
DONUT 6: JJ Barea in the regular season:
At Home: 9.1 Pts, 44.2 FG%, 29.3 3PT%, 89.0 FT%, 1.8 Reb., 4.0 Assists, 1.7 TOs
On Road: 9.9 Pts, 43.7 FG%, 40.2 3PT%, 80.0 FT%, 2.2 Reb., 3.9 Assists, 1.7 TOs
JJ Barea in the playoffs:
At Home: 10.2 Pts, 43.6 FG%, 34.8 3PT%, 80.0 FT%, 1.7 Reb., 3.3 Assists, 1.3 TOs
On Road: 6.1 Pts, 35.5 FG%, 17.6 3PT%, 72.7 FT%, 1.8 Reb., 3.0 Assists, 0.7 TOs
In the regular season, Barea was fairly consistent in all categories other than his 3-point shooting, where he was much better on the road. In the playoffs, the same has not been true, as Barea has shown a clear improvement at home … though a significant contributor to this were the final two games against the Lakers, which were both at home.
In Game 3 of the Finals, Barea tied his high for 3-point attempts with five, making only one, tied his low in assists (1) and set a new high for turnovers (4) for these playoffs.
"The ball is going to start going down," Barea said. "I'm going to stay aggressive, play my game, keep doing what brought me here."
DONUT 7: Peja Stojakovic in the regular season:
At Home: 9.1 Pts, 45.2 FG%, 40.0 3PT%, 85.7 FT%, 2.0 Reb., 1.0 Assists, 0.4 TOs
On Road: 7.9 Pts, 42.9 FG%, 44.3 3PT%, 100 FT%, 2.5 Reb., 0.8 Assists, 0.6 TOs
Peja Stojakovic in the playoffs:
At Home: 9.8 Pts, 47.7 FG%, 46.8 3PT%, 66.7 FT%, 2.3 Reb., 0.4 Assists, 0.4 TOs
On Road: 5.1 Pts, 32.7 FG%, 23.3 3PT%, 100 FT%, 1.2 Reb., 0.3 Assists, 0.6 TOs
Peja's numbers have shown a noticeable uptick in almost every category at home. Game 3 of the Finals marked his first home playoff game this season without a made 3-pointer.
DONUT 8: DeShawn Stevenson in the regular season:
At Home: 5.4 Pts, 40.5 FG%, 40.0 3PT%, 85.0 FT%, 1.0 Reb., 1.2 Assists, 0.7 TOs
On Road: 5.2 Pts, 37.0 FG%, 35.7 3PT%, 69.6 FT%, 2.0 Reb., 1.0 Assists, 0.5 TOs
Deshawn Stevenson in the playoffs:
At Home: 2.7 Pts, 21.2 FG%, 24.0 3PT%, 66.7 FT%, 0.7 Reb., 0.7 Assists, 0.4 TOs
On Road: 5.1 Pts, 41.7 FG%, 48.3 3PT%, 100 FT%, 1.1 Reb., 0.6 Assists, 0.7 TOs
During the regular season, Stevenson put up similar numbers whether he was home or away. In the playoffs, much like Marion, his stats show a significant leap on the road in all of the scoring categories.
DONUT 9: And finally we get to Jet ... Jason Terry in the regular season:
At Home: 16.1 Pts, 45.1 FG%, 36.5 3PT%, 87.7 FT%, 1.9 Reb., 4.2 Assists, 1.8 TOs
On Road: 15.4 Pts, 45.1 FG%, 35.9 3PT%, 82.6 FT%, 1.9 Reb., 4.0 Assists, 2.2 TOs
Jason Terry in the playoffs:
At Home: 17.1 Pts, 49.1 FG%, 50.0 3PT%, 81.6 FT%, 1.4 Reb., 1.8 Assists, 1.4 TOs
On Road: 16.6 Pts, 42.8 FG%, 39.0 3PT%, 93.9 FT%, 2.2 Reb., 4.4 Assists, 1.6 TOs
In the regular season, Terry was almost a perfect echo at home as he was on the road. In the playoffs, you can see an obvious lift in all of his shooting percentages outside of free throws (we may be seeing the evidence of a player who clearly draws from the energy of the crowd, which raises its intensity levels in the playoffs … and maybe the home crowd should boo when he's at the line to help him out). Perhaps as a direct product of finding his shot falling is the noticeable drop in assists.
Generally, Jet hasn't been what Dallas has needed him to be in this series, especially when LeBron's guarding him.
"Let's see if he can defend me like that for seven games," Terry said rather defiantly.
DONUT 10: Our practice report from last night attempts to explain what in the world is driving Jason Terry to say outrageous things about Miami's defense, his work against LeBron and his forgiving view of his own performance in this series.
Jet's purposely putting an obstacle in front of himself? Purposely putting a chip on his shoulder? Failing to properly program his VCR so he can see what's going on here?
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DONUT 12: Conclusion regarding home-vs.-away shooting and The Jet Thesis:
A few players (Kidd, Marion, Stevenson) have put up better numbers on the road in the playoffs, but the rest all seem to favor the friendly confines of the AAC. With such a limited sample size as the playoffs (18 games so far, nine at home and nine on the road), a strong game or two can greatly influence the averages, which is likely why we see a much greater level of consistency in the regular season whether playing home or away.
The Mavs need a "strong game or two.'' ... something to back up the talk from Jet that at this moment seems so unjustified.
"They keep sticking (LeBron) on Jet in the fourth quarters and (LeBron's) been doing a good job,'' Dirk said, again countering Terry's boasts. "Jet hasn't really been a crunch-time, clutch player for us the way we need him to."
With the importance of Game 4, can the rest of the Mavs do what they didn't do in Game 3 and rise in support of Dirk Nowitzki?
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