Prediction: Parsons To Rockets, Mavs Move On
The Dallas Mavericks have watched today as Chris Bosh has spurned the Rockets. So no superteam in Houston featuring Bosh and Chandler Parsons.
But Houston can still match Dallas' offer sheet on Parsons. And they should. And we feel strongly they will.
Without Bosh, here is where Houston is at the moment:
Dwight Howard $21,436,271
James Harden $14,728,844
Chandler Parsons $2,875,130
Terrence Jones $1,618,680
Donatas Motiejunas $1,483,920
Omri Casspi $1,063,384
Patrick Beverley $915,243
Isaiah Canaan $816,482
max on 1 player $16,097,702
alternates for empty slots
Robert Covington $816,482
Josh Powell $1,310,286
Troy Daniels $1,016,482
Robert Covington $816,482
As you can see, Houston now can have as much as $16,097,702 in cap room to sign one or more players. But they must spend it before Parsons is matched, because Parsons will either reduce their cap room by $12 mil or so, or send them over the cap if they've already spent it.
So Parsons could simply be matched by Sunday night and that's that. Or, more wisely, the Rockets can count his cap hold of $2,875,130, move very quickly to formalize their Lin and Asik deals (if they're not already done as you read this) and then quickly use that $16,097,702 (that was previously earmarked for the bulk of Bosh's offer) on other pickups.
We've figured this out, and because we like Parsons-to-Mavs, we've be happy to be wrong. But we've no doubt Houston GM Daryl Morey has figured it out. And we've no doubt Mark Cuban and staff -- successful in pinching Houston out of getting Bosh and Parsons but not the latter player -- have as well. ... and are visiting with the likes of Trevor Ariza-level targets for signings likely to be made official on Monday. (After the sensible Parsons match.)
The Mavs can (and will) hold out hope that we're wrong here, that Houston will have having no future flexibility, or that Houston won't do all of this in time, or that Houston won't be $16,097,702 worth of truly helpful talent.
But that's the competitors in the Mavs talking. We're talking "legal and logical.''
In reality, Dallas essentially isn't frozen anymore. The legal and the logical say Houston keeps Parsons and the legal and the logical say the Mavs move on to their next "greaseboard.''
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