Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

How many games does Jim Tomsula have to win to retain his job?

At 3-7, the focus of the remaining six games for the 49ers is on Jim Tomsula's future.

SANTA CLARA, Calif. - Coming off their bye Sunday in Seattle, the 49ers did not look like a team eager to turn their season around. Instead, they were run over - again - by the Seahawks, a hungrier team that plans on making another run at the postseason.

No, Jim Tomsula's team did not have the feel of a team desperate to change the course of its disparaging season. The run defense, in particular, was historically problematic. Never had a 49ers team allowed more rushing yards (209) or all-purpose yards (255) to one player. And that one player was undrafted rookie Thomas Rawls, not Marshawn Lynch, a usual suspect for a performance like that.

As the former defensive line coach, the run defense was Tomsula's speciality. It was one of the team's calling cards when the 49ers were competing for the conference title for three straight seasons. Their performance against the run, year after year, was one of the reasons Tomsula was regarded so highly as a defensive line coach.

Sunday, the team in white seemed disinterested in getting push against the Seahawks' offensive line, who many pegged as their Achilles heal. Seattle's struggling group manhandled the 49ers, who were coming off an impressive performance against the Falcons, when the league's former leading rusher Devonta Freeman was held to 12 yards on 12 carries. That was the kind of defensive performance emblematic of a Tomsula-led team. At least, that's what the 49ers hoped.

Sunday, Tomsula's team regressed.

San Francisco should have been energized and hungry against a team it hates. Players spoke during the week about only being a few games out of the playoff race. But they haven't played like a playoff-worthy club this year.

Tomsula's team has the league's worst point differential of minus-113 and is one of three that hasn't won a road game.

At 3-7, the 49ers will likely have to win their remaining six games to have a shot at the postseason with a 9-7 finish. It starts with division leader Arizona this weekend, who's tied for the NFL's second-best record at 8-2. After that, San Francisco plays three of its remaining five games on the road.

Barring one of the most dramatic turnarounds in team history, the 49ers won't come close to the playoffs. Losing seven of their first 10 games has put them in position for a top-five pick, should they continue down the path their on. That would be a good thing, because the 49ers need to find an elite player in next spring's draft after losing so many last offseason.

But while netting a pick that high seems ideal to most, it won't to Tomsula.

Because if the 49ers end up with a top-10 selection - they would have the sixth pick if the season ended before Thanksgiving - they will have failed to live up to expectations.

So what does that mean for Tomsula?

Will York be willing to part with his chosen coach after just one season after coming well short of that goal? If you believe in what's being reported at the national level over the last week, the rumblings within the organization have already begun. FOX's Jay Glazer, who was regularly reporting on the kerfuffle between York and Jim Harbaugh before it picked up steam last season, had this to say Nov. 22:

The big "if" is who the coaching staff is going to be. And I said that, if Jim Tomsula is the coach there, obviously something's got to change. But if there's somebody else that comes in, maybe they fall in love with Colin Kaepernick, maybe they don't. It's kind of like last year with the Chicago Bears, where we all assumed Jay Cutler and his contract were going to be released. That wasn't the case. John Fox came in and said "these guys don't grow on trees" and kept him. Same thing. The operative, the big date here though is April 1. On that day, if Colin Kaepernick is a 49er, $11.9 million gets guaranteed of his salary.

This would indicate the wheels are already in motion. Tomsula is walking a thin line with ownership. But York won't want to part with Tomsula after just one season. It wouldn't be a good look considering the backlash he took for parting with Harbaugh in the first place. Human nature says firing Tomsula this winter would be tough considering the how massively York bet on Harbaugh's successor. If there was a lesson in the Harbaugh saga, it's to not underestimate a CEO's ego.

The 49ers will have to decide where the line for Tomsula is, if they haven't already. Winning four of their last six, which seems like a reasonable best-case scenario, would put the 49ers at 7-9, which might put them out of range for a top-tier quarterback prospect in the draft.

If they finish 7-9 after starting 3-7, that might generate enough momentum for York to try to justify keeping Tomsula for a second season, likely with a new offensive coordinator running a competition for starting quarterback between Blaine Gabbert and a rookie.

Or, the 49ers could add a veteran via trade or free agency. They will have upwards of $40 million in cap space, even if Colin Kaepernick comes back at his projected salary cap figure.

On the surface, it appears unlikely Tomsula gets another year. But going back to the offseason and remembering what the team didn't do, might indicate otherwise.

The 49ers had a slew of players retire, and they didn't do much in terms of finding immediate replacements. Most, if not all, their free-agent acquisitions flamed out. They didn't make plays for big names, nor they did draft immediate contributors. Instead, general manager Trent Baalke drafted projects, which would take at least a year or two to develop, starting with defensive lineman Arik Armstead.

The 49ers didn't do much to "reload," as Baalke said the team would do after parting with Harbaugh. Last season had the look of a rebuild. Saving money to have the league's fifth-most cap space saved for 2016 is another clue.

But somewhere down the path the 49ers created for themselves, they might have changed their mind. They might have thought they could remain competitive enough to keep filling Levi's Stadium while building for the future with cap space and a nice draft pick. But the 3-7 start might be worse than they projected, and a lackluster finish might mean the end for Tomsula.

It's all very complicated. And it could go a number of different directions.

————————————————————————————

Chris Biderman is the Editor-in-Chief of Niners Digest and covers the 49ers from their headquarters in Santa Clara. Chris has been writing about the team since the spring of 2013. The Ohio State alum received his Journalism degree in 2011 and has been working in sports media since 2008. Chris, a Santa Rosa, Calif. native, is also a contributor to the Associated Press covering sports throughout the Bay Area. You can follow Chris on Twitter here.

E-mail Niners Digest: NinersDigest@gmail.com

Get updates from Niners Digest by following here and become a subscriber to receive access to premium content and analysis.


Niners Digest Top Stories

————————————————————————————

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Chris Biderman is the Editor-in-Chief of Niners Digest and covers the 49ers from their headquarters in Santa Clara. Chris has been writing about the team since the spring of 2013. The Ohio State alum received his Journalism degree in 2011 and has been working in sports media since 2008. Chris, a Santa Rosa, Calif. native, is also a contributor to the Associated Press covering sports throughout the Bay Area. You can follow Chris on Twitter here.

\n

E-mail Niners Digest: NinersDigest@gmail.com

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Get updates from Niners Digest by following here and become a subscriber to receive access to premium content and analysis.

","mobileBody":"

SANTA CLARA, Calif. - Coming off their bye Sunday in Seattle, the 49ers did not look like a team eager to turn their season around. Instead, they were run over - again - by the Seahawks, a hungrier team that plans on making another run at the postseason.

No, Jim Tomsula's team did not have the feel of a team desperate to change the course of its disparaging season. The run defense, in particular, was historically problematic. Never had a 49ers team allowed more rushing yards (209) or all-purpose yards (255) to one player. And that one player was undrafted rookie Thomas Rawls, not Marshawn Lynch, a usual suspect for a performance like that.

As the former defensive line coach, the run defense was Tomsula's speciality. It was one of the team's calling cards when the 49ers were competing for the conference title for three straight seasons. Their performance against the run, year after year, was one of the reasons Tomsula was regarded so highly as a defensive line coach.

Sunday, the team in white seemed disinterested in getting push against the Seahawks' offensive line, who many pegged as their Achilles heal. Seattle's struggling group manhandled the 49ers, who were coming off an impressive performance against the Falcons, when the league's former leading rusher Devonta Freeman was held to 12 yards on 12 carries. That was the kind of defensive performance emblematic of a Tomsula-led team. At least, that's what the 49ers hoped.

Sunday, Tomsula's team regressed.

San Francisco should have been energized and hungry against a team it hates. Players spoke during the week about only being a few games out of the playoff race. But they haven't played like a playoff-worthy club this year.

Tomsula's team has the league's worst point differential of minus-113 and is one of three that hasn't won a road game.

At 3-7, the 49ers will likely have to win their remaining six games to have a shot at the postseason with a 9-7 finish. It starts with division leader Arizona this weekend, who's tied for the NFL's second-best record at 8-2. After that, San Francisco plays three of its remaining five games on the road.

Barring one of the most dramatic turnarounds in team history, the 49ers won't come close to the playoffs. Losing seven of their first 10 games has put them in position for a top-five pick, should they continue down the path their on. That would be a good thing, because the 49ers need to find an elite player in next spring's draft after losing so many last offseason.

But while netting a pick that high seems ideal to most, it won't to Tomsula.

Because if the 49ers end up with a top-10 selection - they would have the sixth pick if the season ended before Thanksgiving - they will have failed to live up to expectations.

Last May, at the owners' meetings, Jed York told some writers that he expected the team to go 11-5.

— Ann Killion (@annkillion) November 1, 2015

So what does that mean for Tomsula?

Will York be willing to part with his chosen coach after just one season after coming well short of that goal? If you believe in what's being reported at the national level over the last week, the rumblings within the organization have already begun. FOX's Jay Glazer, who was regularly reporting on the kerfuffle between York and Jim Harbaugh before it picked up steam last season, had this to say Nov. 22:

The big \"if\" is who the coaching staff is going to be. And I said that, if Jim Tomsula is the coach there, obviously something's got to change. But if there's somebody else that comes in, maybe they fall in love with Colin Kaepernick, maybe they don't. It's kind of like last year with the Chicago Bears, where we all assumed Jay Cutler and his contract were going to be released. That wasn't the case. John Fox came in and said \"these guys don't grow on trees\" and kept him. Same thing. The operative, the big date here though is April 1. On that day, if Colin Kaepernick is a 49er, $11.9 million gets guaranteed of his salary.

This would indicate the wheels are already in motion. Tomsula is walking a thin line with ownership. But York won't want to part with Tomsula after just one season. It wouldn't be a good look considering the backlash he took for parting with Harbaugh in the first place. Human nature says firing Tomsula this winter would be tough considering the how massively York bet on Harbaugh's successor. If there was a lesson in the Harbaugh saga, it's to not underestimate a CEO's ego.

The 49ers will have to decide where the line for Tomsula is, if they haven't already. Winning four of their last six, which seems like a reasonable best-case scenario, would put the 49ers at 7-9, which might put them out of range for a top-tier quarterback prospect in the draft.

If they finish 7-9 after starting 3-7, that might generate enough momentum for York to try to justify keeping Tomsula for a second season, likely with a new offensive coordinator running a competition for starting quarterback between Blaine Gabbert and a rookie.

Or, the 49ers could add a veteran via trade or free agency. They will have upwards of $40 million in cap space, even if Colin Kaepernick comes back at his projected salary cap figure.

On the surface, it appears unlikely Tomsula gets another year. But going back to the offseason and remembering what the team didn't do, might indicate otherwise.

The 49ers had a slew of players retire, and they didn't do much in terms of finding immediate replacements. Most, if not all, their free-agent acquisitions flamed out. They didn't make plays for big names, nor they did draft immediate contributors. Instead, general manager Trent Baalke drafted projects, which would take at least a year or two to develop, starting with defensive lineman Arik Armstead.

The 49ers didn't do much to \"reload,\" as Baalke said the team would do after parting with Harbaugh. Last season had the look of a rebuild. Saving money to have the league's fifth-most cap space saved for 2016 is another clue.

But somewhere down the path the 49ers created for themselves, they might have changed their mind. They might have thought they could remain competitive enough to keep filling Levi's Stadium while building for the future with cap space and a nice draft pick. But the 3-7 start might be worse than they projected, and a lackluster finish might mean the end for Tomsula.

It's all very complicated. And it could go a number of different directions.

————————————————————————————

Chris Biderman is the Editor-in-Chief of Niners Digest and covers the 49ers from their headquarters in Santa Clara. Chris has been writing about the team since the spring of 2013. The Ohio State alum received his Journalism degree in 2011 and has been working in sports media since 2008. Chris, a Santa Rosa, Calif. native, is also a contributor to the Associated Press covering sports throughout the Bay Area. You can follow Chris on Twitter here.

E-mail Niners Digest: NinersDigest@gmail.com

Get updates from Niners Digest by following here and become a subscriber to receive access to premium content and analysis.

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